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Down Goes Brown Playoff Preview: Western Conference First Round

The Western Conference will provide plenty of storylines in the first round: The Chicago dynasty, two teams (Anaheim and Calgary) that hate each other, and Connor McDavid's playoff debut.
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The NHL playoffs start tonight, which means we've got only a few hours left to break down each series and get our predictions on the record, followed by a few weeks of regretting each and every one of them. As always, please remember that prior to the season I picked the Stars and the Lightning for the Stanley Cup Final, and you should not listen to anything I tell you is going to happen.

On Monday, we broke down the Eastern Conference, and I already cravenly backtracked on one of my picks during the podcast. Today, let's move out West.

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Central Division

The Central ceded its status as the league's toughest division to the Metro this year, but it's still very good. As always, the Blackhawks are the team to beat, but for the first time in four years, they'll actually be starting at home.

1 Chicago Blackhawks vs. WC Nashville Predators

In this corner: The Blackhawks (50-23-9, 109 points, +28 goals differential not counting shootouts), who locked up the top seed with weeks to play and then cruised down the stretch.

And in this corner: The Predators (41-29-12, 94 points, +18), a preseason Cup favorite that stumbled through much of the first half before eventually getting on track.

Head-to-head: The Blackhawks took four of five.

Dominant narrative: The closest thing to a dynasty we've seen during the cap era takes aim at their fourth Stanley Cup. It's hard to overstate how impressive Chicago's run on top of the NHL has been in a league where the salary cap is supposed to drag teams back to the pack. Now they head into the playoffs as the clear favorite out West but draw a deceivingly tough matchup with Nashville.

Injury report: Everyone is banged up this time of year, but all the big names in Chicago sound reasonably healthy for Game One. Nashville is in rougher shape with several players potentially on the sidelines; key defenseman Roman Josi is hobbled but should play.

The big question: Can anyone beat the Blackhawks? Hey, it's already out there. It plays into the narrative all sports fans secretly love, that of the near-invincible favorite waiting for just the right underdog to show up and shock the world. So here's a spoiler: Yes, of course someone can beat the Hawks. In today's NHL, anybody can beat anybody else, even in a seven-game series. Chances are, somebody will beat Chicago over the next two months. Can it be Nashville? It sure can. Will it? Uh, let me get back to you on that one.

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One player to watch: P.K. Subban. If you're a sports fan, you should always be watching Subban, just because. But he's also a guy with a history of having big playoff moments, and he loves the spotlight. Remember his "I can't wait to take it all away from them" quote about the Bruins a few years ago? Let's see how he feels about facing the league's marquee team.

Key number: 77.7 percent. That's Chicago's penalty kill rate, the worst among the 16 playoff teams, and you'll hear about it plenty over the coming days. As others have pointed out, that stat is a bit misleading because of how badly the Hawks started. You can't totally hand-wave away a team's worst stretches, but Chicago isn't in as much special teams trouble as you might think.

Prediction: Blackhawks in seven.

Bonus prediction that is oddly specific: Subban gets an overtime goal in the series.

Can the 29-year-old Vladimir Sobotka return from the KHL and have an impact in the playoffs? Photo by Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

2 Minnesota Wild vs. #3 St. Louis Blues

In this corner: The Wild (49-25-8, 106 points, +57), who looked like a Presidents' Trophy contender for much of the season before sputtering over the final month.

And in this corner: The Blues (46-29-7, 99 points, +17), who were all over the map this year, including firing their coach and trading away one of their best players at the deadline.

Head-to-head: The Blues took three of five.

Dominant narrative: The coaches. The Wild fired Mike Yeo midway through last year, then beat out several suitors to hire Bruce Boudreau during the off-season. Boudreau is one of the best coaches in the league, but his playoff resume is spotty, especially in Game Sevens, which is what cost him his job in Anaheim. Meanwhile, the Blues fired Ken Hitchcock midway through this season and replaced him with Yeo, who'll get a chance at revenge against his former team.

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Injury report: Blues center Paul Stastny missed time with a broken foot and is questionable for the opener. Minnesota's Jared Spurgeon missed time at the end of the season but should play.

The big question: How lopsided is the goalie battle? Over the season's first four months, the two teams were at the opposite ends of the goaltending spectrum. Devan Dubnyk spent most of the season looking like a Vezina favorite; Jake Allen struggled so badly that at one point the Blues left him at home out of concern for his "mental lock." But Dubnyk came back to earth a bit, and Allen straightened his game out down the stretch. It's still an edge to Minnesota, but is it enough to single-handedly swing the series?

One player to watch: Vladimir Sobotka. The 29-year-old winger made a surprise return from the KHL, playing one game and scoring a goal over the weekend. It's asking a lot to drop a guy back into the league after three years and expect much production, but in a series where goals will be tough to come by, Sobotka could make a difference.

Key number: 1. Vladimir Tarasenko's rank among active players in postseason goals-per-game, nudging him past Phil Kessel for the title of "guy who scores a ton in the playoffs yet still somehow gets accused of not scoring enough in big games."

Prediction: Wild in five.

Bonus prediction that is oddly specific: This is the series that has an overtime goal called back on a replay review.

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Pacific Division

For the first time since the new format came into play back in 2013, the Pacific is actually sending four teams to the playoffs. They're all pretty good, too.

The Flames and Ducks do not like each other. Photo by Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

1 Anaheim Ducks vs. WC Calgary Flames

In this corner: The Ducks (46-23-13, 105 points, +23) needed a third-period comeback against the Kings in the season's final game to lock down first place, and also screw up the Oilers–Flames matchup we all desperately wanted. Thanks, jerks.

And in this corner: The Flames (45-33-4, 94 points, +3), a good young team that struggled early but looked better as the season wore on.

Head-to-head: The Ducks won four of five, including back-to-back games last week, although that lone Flames win was an 8-3 blowout.

Dominant narrative: Bad blood. These teams don't like each other, as was evident in those late-season games. There's plenty of history here—remember this madness?—and Mark Giordano's extended-leg hit on Cam Fowler only poured fuel onto that fire. Even the general managers are getting into it. Yes, yes, there's no fighting in the playoffs. Hold that thought, because this one could get ugly.

Injury report: Fowler will reportedly miss the start of the series, which is huge, and Patrick Eaves was hurt in the final game but should play. All the other key names in the series seem healthy, although Nick Ritchie will be suspended for Game One. Calgary is healthy, with the exception of backup goalie Chad Johnson.

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The big question: Can the Ducks finally get it done in the playoffs? Anaheim has been one of the league's better regular-season teams for years, but they keep finding ways to fall short in the postseason. That's been especially true in Game Seven; each of the Ducks' last four seasons has ended in a winner-take-all loss. That's a big part of why they parted ways with Boudreau, and while Randy Carlyle's recent Game Seven history isn't exactly stellar, he did win a Cup here in 2007.

One player to watch: Giordano. His game has fallen off a bit from his sneaky-Norris-candidate heights a few years ago, but he's still one of the Flames' most important players and should log big minutes in this one. Maybe more importantly, can the Ducks resist the urge to chase him around looking for a Fowler payback? The Flames have a top-ten powerplay, so staying out of the box will be key.

Key number: 26. That's how many straight games the Ducks have beaten the Flames at home, a streak that dates back to 2004. They're not shy about letting the Flames know it, either.

Prediction: Ducks in seven.

Bonus prediction that is oddly specific: The Flames takes Game One, and we all make a note to append "regular season" to that road losing streak stat starting next year.

Will the 2017 playoffs be the coming out party for Connor McDavid? Photo by Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

2 Edmonton Oilers vs. #3 San Jose Sharks

In this corner: The Oilers (47-26-9, 103 points, +36), making their return to the playoffs after a league-leading 11-year absence.

And in this corner: The Sharks (46-29-7, 99 points, +19), looking for one more deep run after last year's trip to the final.

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Head-to-head: The Oilers took three of five, including two wins during the season's last two weeks.

Dominant narrative: A young team with a fantastic future ahead of it goes up against a grizzled group that could be taking their very last shot at a Cup. Winning the Connor McDavid lottery changed everything for the Oilers, and despite some questionable decisions by management they seem to be on a fast track to Cup favorite status. But is this year too soon? The Sharks may be in the final season of the Joe Thornton/Patrick Marleau era, and they fell just short last year. Do they get steamrolled by McDavid and friends, or do they teach the young guns a lesson or two about what it takes to win?

Injury report: Thornton missed the last week; he said he'd be good to go, but now that's in some doubt. Logan Couture still sounds iffy after taking a puck to the mouth two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Oilers are basically healthy.

The big question: How much of a book does Todd McLellan still have on the Sharks? Yeo isn't the only coach facing his former team; McLellan parted ways with San Jose in 2015 after missing the playoffs. He was hired by the Oilers that summer, and now gets a chance to get some revenge. The Sharks roster hasn't changed all that much since, so Edmonton could have an advantage in the coaching battle just based on firsthand experience.

One player to watch: McDavid. It's an obvious pick, but he's the best player in the series and maybe the world, and he could single-handedly win it for Edmonton. Beyond that, there's just nobody in the league right now who's as much fun to watch. The sheer speed with which he does absolutely everything is stunning—hockey players are supposed to slow down with the puck, but McDavid somehow gets faster. He's going to win MVP in his first full season, and the scary thing is that he's probably nowhere near his ceiling yet.

Key number: 29. That's how many goals Brent Burns scored this year, the most by a blueliner since Mike Green's 31 in 2008-09. Also, it's how many references to Burns' beard you'll see every time anyone mentions the Sharks. Did you know that he and Thornton both have silly beards? Isn't that fascinating? Beards!

Prediction: Oilers in five.

Bonus prediction that is oddly specific: McDavid is held scoreless in the first two games, leading to a few days of "wait, maybe he's not good in the playoffs" hyperventilation. He finishes the series with eight points.

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