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Sports

The Atlanta Falcons are (Probably) Going to Win the Super Bowl

Plenty of things could go wrong between now and then—but this postseason, the Lombardi Trophy is the Falcons' to lose.
Might as well be the Vince Lombardi trophy in his hands, amirite? Photo by Jason Getz—USA TODAY Sports

Likely league MVP-to-be Matt Ryan and his Atlanta Falcons made a statement on Saturday afternoon that the rest of the NFL heard loud and clear: They're the best team in football, and they're going to win the Super Bowl.

Of course, there are plenty good teams who could prove them wrong; at the time of this writing the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, and New England Patriots are all still alive—and all, to one degree or another and one point in this season or another, could lay claim to being the 'best,' 'hottest,' and/or 'toughest out' in the league.

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But after one excellent scripted opening drive by the Seattle Seahawks, the Falcons spent 53 and a half minutes proving they're on a completely different level than the rest of the NFL.

The Seahawks offensive line, which seemed to have found itself against the Detroit Lions last week, was shredded by the Falcons' front seven. After setting a franchise playoff rushing record the week before, Thomas Rawls and the Seahawks tailbacks gained just 51 yards on 14 carries against Atlanta. Quarterback Russell Wilson—who came into the game having won eight of 11 career playoff games—was sacked three times (once for a safety), picked off twice and completed just 56.7 percent of his 30 attempts.

On the other side of the ball? No surprise, the NFL's No. 1 scoring offense did what they've been doing all year. Ryan was nearly flawless, completing 70.3 percent of his 37 attempts for 338 yards, three scores and no picks. Tailbacks Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman added 102 yards on the ground, kicker Matt Bryant made all six kicks, and ball just generally bounced the Falcons' way all night:

DAGGER!!!! This interception puts the nail in the coffin as the #Falcons advance to the NFC Championship #RiseUp #SEAvsATL pic.twitter.com/DII3PaGlKB
— Fonzy (@FONZY541) January 15, 2017

Aaron Rogers and the Packers are built similarly to the Falcons, except they're less balanced offensively, and averaged a touchdown less per game—and that theoretical NFC Championship Game would be played in the cozy confines of the Georgia Dome.

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Should Atlanta have to travel to Dallas, the road will be harder, but the Cowboys' ball-denial strategy will be hard to pull off against a team that scored on a league-best-by-a-longshot 53 percent of offensive possessions. As we saw when the Falcons matched the Seahawks' methodical drive with one of their own, Atlanta has no trouble varying their pace to match what their opponent is trying to do.

Pittsburgh and Kansas City are two very similar teams, neither of which has been able to consistently win shootouts—and despite their stout reputations, rank just 10th and 7th in scoring defense. Neither of these teams is the 2015 Denver Broncos, let alone the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.

The last challenger to the Falcons' theoretical crown, of course, is the Patriots. This season has almost certainly been Bill Belichick's magnum opus; overcoming Tom Brady's four-game suspension, a rash of key injuries and a year-long roster management philosophy that focused more on clearing cap space than adding talent.

Yet all the flaws Belichick's coaching has covered up were on display against Houston: A severe lack of talented playmakers, an aging Brady who no longer thrives in the cold, a defense relying more on scheme, effort, and execution than disruptive playmakers.

Should the Patriots lean on home-field advantage to carry them past the winner of Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City, they'll have to meet the Falcons at Houston's NRG Stadium—an indoor flat track built to let the Falcons play their game.

Perhaps Ryan will choke in the conference title game. Perhaps a key injury will derail the Falcons' freight-train offense. Perhaps star offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will be haunted by the ghost of Eugene Robinson and spend Super Bowl Sunday in a Mexican jail. Plenty of things could go wrong between now and then—but this postseason, the Lombardi Trophy is the Falcons' to lose.