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Sports

Wait, Are the Mariners Actually Good?

With a new front office, a new manager, and a revamped roster, the Mariners are 21-13, and in first place. Are they for real?
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

It was bound to happen at some point. Mount Saint Helens hasn't erupted again. Seattle hasn't fallen into the sea because of the Big One, and for the moment they still play organized baseball there. The Mariners have new leadership, and a bunch of new players, and after years of bad teams and failed prospects, and institutional entropy…well, it's hard to believe, but the Mariners appear to be good. They haven't sniffed the postseason since 2001—the longest drought in baseball—and yet there they sit atop the AL West, at 21-13, with a +32 run differential. Since their rough 2-6 skid to start the year, they've gone 19-7, the best AL record over that stretch.

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In the offseason, new general manager Jerry Dipoto made a flurry of moves designed to backfill the team's various black holes. Crave improved centerfield defense? Trade Tom Wilhelmsen to the Texas Rangers for Leonys Martin, and hope for a bounce-back season. Want to emphasize on-base percentage? Sign Norichika Aoki, and expect another year of .280ish/.350ish/.370ish at the plate. Restock a depleted bullpen with Steve Cishek and Joaquin Benoit, and hope Cishek returns to form and Benoit remains an ageless wonder. Fortify the starting rotation by trading for innings-eater Wade Miley and young arm Nate Karns. Sign catcher Chris Iannetta, so tarnished prospect Mike Zunino can take the year to get his bat right in the minors.

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The team wasn't interested in a tear down. Rather, they sought to fill in and supplement, and keep the window open a little longer for their core of Felix Hernandez, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager. Dipoto emphasized speed and defense, "controlling the zone" and working long at-bats, and playing to the park the Mariners have, rather than the theoretical park that former GM Jack Zduriencik seemed to believe that they played in. Jack Z thought that park could be conquered with right-handed power. Dipoto's team is playing in the one that exists.

They were going to bunt less, and shift more. It all made a lot of sense, which was refreshing for a fanbase used to baseball defined by a decade-spanning dedication to "wait, what?" as an organizational philosophy. But the hard part is always in the doing. The hard part is making all the pieces actually fit together.

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They do, and that starts with Robinson Cano. This is the Cano the Mariners wanted when they signed him 2014. He's hitting .303/.349/.606. He has an AL-best 12 home runs. Freed from the stomach ailments and injuries that plagued him in 2015, he is hitting the ball with authority to all fields, indifferent to the shift. He looks quick and decisive at second base again, and has regained the effervescent brand of cool that could be described as swagger, although that seems too small for what he is doing right now. Robinson Cano of 2014 was an All-Star, and last year's model looked liked a man at the beginning of the twilight of a distinguished career. The 2016 Robinson Cano is the heart of a resurgent franchise.

When you, Nelson Cruz, are thankful that Leonys Martin is your center fielder, and not Brad Miller. Photo: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports.

But the reversal of fortune isn't just coming from the veterans. Some homegrown youth is finally contributing. Taijuan Walker is off to strong start, mixing in a splitter and developing his curve to compliment a dominant fastball. Shortstop Ketel Marte is hitting well and getting on base; once there, he is bringing an element of speed that actually bothers opposing pitchers. He's combining that with solid defense, punctuated by the occasional transcendent play.

Kyle Seager is turning it on after a slow start. Nelson Cruz isn't hitting for as much power as usual, but until that comes he is walking more and striking out less. Aoki and Seth Smith are getting on base. Korean first baseman Dae-Ho Lee is contributing in a platoon role, and stealing hearts with his affability. Up and down the lineup, the plan seems to be working, with room to improve further.

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And then there is the bullpen. It's not that there was no way the bullpen could work, it's just that it was so easy to see all the ways it could not. Coming out of Spring Training without Charlie Furbush, Ryan Cook, and Evan Scribner, the pen looked awfully thin. But it has been commanding so far. Cishek has returned to form. Recently converted reliever Mike Montgomery has taken to the pen well, late addition Nick Vincent has been solid, and veteran Joel Peralta, who the signed for a song back in the spring, has anchored the eighth inning with Benoit out with injury. Tony Zych, who the team got from the Cubs for one dollar of cash considerations, was good before he went down with tendinitis in his rotator cuff. As a unit, they're second in the majors in ERA, fifth in FIP, fourth in K/9, and first in K%, narrowly surpassing the Yankees. They're holding opponents to a league low .235 BABIP.

It hasn't all been good news. Felix Hernandez, long the franchise stalwart, appears to be entering a new phase of his pitching career, and the transition hasn't been entirely smooth. His velocity continues to decline. He's posting career worsts in K/9 and walks. He doesn't seem to trust his fastball, and as a result has turned to nibbling around the zone. But the movement on his pitches is still tremendous, and opposing batters are still finding him hard to square up. He's dealt with declining velocity for a few seasons, now, and has countered with a dominant off-speed offering. He'll likely remain very effective, even if he's not the ace he once was. In the meantime, the rest of his team is picking up the slack.

When you are Jerry Dipoto and are thankful that Mike Scioscia is no longer part of your life. Photo: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports.

Some of this good fortune will likely fade. The Mariners probably won't keep winning one-run games at a .615 clip, much like they probably won't sustain a .833 record in extra-innings. The bullpen is likely to regress. At age 40, to take one example, Peralta has a career best K/9, and his lumbering highwire act will probably involve a terrifying fall at some point. And what if the injuries continue to mount? The prospect of significant innings from Macykol Guaipe and Steve Johnson doesn't bode well. Hisashi Iwakuma could stay wobbly and prove the Dodgers were right to have backed out of a deal with him in the offseason after a look at his physical. Hernandez's spotty start could portend the beginning of deeper, more lasting decline, as his command and velocity slip. Cano probably won't stay this hot, if only because no one could. The travel schedule—baseball's toughest, every year—could wear them down. Injuries could expose the lack of organizational depth in the minors. The team could cool. Safeco could become its usual quiet self. You get it.

And yet… they might be good enough to weather regression and injury and shakiness. Adam Lind still hasn't gotten it going. Kyle Seager is still just rounding into form. The bullpen will likely cool, but Benoit is close to returning, and Zych and Furbush are hopefully not too far behind.

In the meantime, these guys are having a lot of fun. The Rangers are keeping pace, but the rest of the AL West is struggling. The Astros probably won't stay this bad, but at 14-22, they've sure made things harder on themselves. You don't win it all in May, but if the Mariners keep banking wins, they could set themselves up for something Seattle hasn't seen in a long time: a summer of meaningful baseball.