FYI.

This story is over 5 years old.

Sports

How Much Are Teams Willing To Bet On Harrison Barnes?

Harrison Barnes has tantalizing talent, but he also just had a demoralizing NBA Playoffs. He's still going to get paid this offseason, but things have changed.
Photo by Tony Dejak/Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports

The Golden State Warriors are not NBA Champions, but they still look a lot like the future of basketball, and remain one of the league's all-time forces of nature. Their scheme was transcendent, and when they were right the Warriors blitzed opponents with unprecedented three-point shooting and galvanic full-spectrum defense. Every member of the team's rotation—and roster, for that matter—knew how to turn their part of the big picture into a work of art. But, as with all great teams, that collective success was built on individual sacrifice. His ill-timed June-long meltdown notwithstanding, no Warrior left more on the table than Harrison Barnes.

Advertisement

At 24 years old, nobody on the Warriors sublimates his natural talent to the team concept more than Barnes. Nobody is more tantalizing or a greater source of frustration, either. As a rising free agent, Barnes' potential is about to become something much more concrete. There's a consensus that Harrison Barnes can do much more than he's done. We're about to find out how much NBA teams are willing to bet on that.

Read More: Steph Curry Faces The Future, And The Haters

Games 6 and 7 were a culmination of Barnes' discouraging postseason. The Cavs left him alone and dared him to shoot, and Barnes played with zero confidence and wince-inducing hesitancy, generally coming off like a cross between Milhouse Van Houten and LeToya Luckett. In Game 6's season-low 16 minutes, Barnes missed all eight of his shots and tallied zero points; the Warriors were outscored by 20 with him on the floor, and he spent the game's final 10:40 on the bench. In Game 7, Barnes went 3-for-10 and failed to impact the game beyond his inefficient scoring line. He ranks 33rd at his own position in Real Plus-Minus, and was invisible in the biggest moments on the grandest stage.

The Warriors didn't need Barnes to go above and beyond his normal duties in order to win it all, but with Andrew Bogut out and Andre Iguodala nursing a bad back, Sunday night would've been a pretty great time for him to step up. Instead, what might wind up being Barnes' last game with Golden State was among his most disappointing.

Advertisement

When the free agent suitors come calling but you just want to chill. Photo by Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

When he's firing right within Golden State's system, Barnes functions as an exclamation point. He capitalizes on obvious mismatches—once LeBron James started guarding Draymond Green in Game 3, Barnes almost always had a big or a small on him—and takes advantage of all the attention Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Iguodala, and Green demand on every possession. The situation isn't unfamiliar for him, but that doesn't mean it's easy, even for a player who is skilled enough to demand way more touches than he gets.

Over a third of Barnes' postseason shots were wide-open threes, and yet he only made 31.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts. In recent weeks there were blips of positive contribution, particularly on the glass, but never enough to move the needle sufficiently. It's hard to find a positive way to spin Barnes' playoffs, even if you believe in his talent. No player attempted more wide open threes in the Finals than Barnes, but he never made Cleveland pay; he shot just 31 percent behind the arc with no defender within six feet, per SportVU. Barnes missed five wide-open threes in Game 5, and the Cavaliers left him wide open time and time again in Game 6, when he passed up a few open jumpers in favor of adventurous drives into the paint. None ended well.

It's easy to feel for Barnes when you look at his situation and realize he knew the accuracy of his outside shot was all that mattered. He had more to offer, but swerving too far outside his lane in Game 7 would've ended in disaster. Barnes isn't Thompson or Curry; eating their looks on the biggest stage wouldn't be a good thing. As a teammate, all he could do was take what the Cavaliers gave.

Advertisement

Barnes will be a restricted free agent this summer, and the offer sheet he's likely to receive would make him Golden State's highest paid player—a four-year deal at approximately $95 million is the most any non-Warriors team can deliver. Here's how a player with a playoff PER of 8.6 is about to make so much money: 1) the 2016-17 salary cap is projected to hit $94 million and basically every team in the league will turn into a buyer, 2) this free agent class is terrible, 3) Barnes just turned 24 and has championship experience and a lottery pick's pedigree, 4) he can play multiple positions on both sides of the ball, shoot threes, and has, in all likelihood, not reached his peak.

It's similar to what Cleveland faced last summer with Tristan Thompson, the result of which was a contentious negotiation that ended with the then 24-year-old signing a five-year, $82 million deal. Thompson wasn't worth that much money in a vacuum, but free agent negotiations don't unfold in a vacuum, and Thompson's skills meant more to the Cavaliers than anybody else. They couldn't have won it all without him. Still, Cleveland wasn't paying Thompson more money than LeBron James.

It's tricky. The Warriors are incentivized to keep everyone together and run things back next season, even if it means Barnes temporarily costs more than Curry, Green, Iguodala and Thompson. If Barnes leaves, the Death Lineup will die. But does Golden State really value him at that price, particularly after watching him crumble in the Finals? Are they willing to step back a few centimeters in 2017 to preserve cap space for the following summer, when just about their entire team, save Thompson and Green, becomes a free agent? Do they think last year's first-round pick, Kevon Looney, can contribute enough to replace Barnes, or failing that do they think they have a legitimate shot at signing Kevin Durant? There are some other questions, here, but you get the point.

Advertisement

If, hypothetically, a team issues Barnes a max offer sheet at the stroke of midnight on July 1st, the Warriors would then have three days to match it. Doing so would eat up all their cap space. Failing to do so would mean they lose Barnes for nothing, but have enough room to replace him with someone like (deep breath): Luol Deng, Solomon Hill, Jared Dudley, Wesley Johnson, Jeff Green (lol), Evan Turner, Marvin Williams, or Mirza Teletovic.

How many of those players can duplicate what Barnes provides and be willing to sacrifice money/touches to slide into Golden State's system on a short-term deal? Maybe Luol Deng? Marvin Williams? Is that it?

He doesn't even seem to be enjoying this dunk very much. Photo by Marcio Jose Sanchez-Pool Photo via USA TODAY Sports

Even then, it's here that Golden State's unreal advantage is revealed most clearly. The Warriors can still dominate without one of the most effective five-man units in NBA history at their disposal, although their margin for error would shrink. Barnes works hard and has spent his entire career embedded in one of the league's smartest and most successful franchises, and his versatility is part of why the Warriors are so freaking awesome. Continuity matters. And yet there is the sense that the Warriors could replace him without missing a beat.

There are some parallels between Barnes' situation and what James Harden went through back in 2012: both were ultra-talented cogs who figured they could thrive in a leash-free environment. But Barnes isn't in Harden's galaxy. He's closer to a fifth wheel than a budding star, at least based on what he's demonstrated to date in his career. Steve Kerr benched him in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, and, outside of a fleeting 18-point spark in Game 3's 30-point loss, Barnes was objectively bad throughout these playoffs.

But how much of his current struggle really matters in the grand scheme if you're a franchise that can't sign anybody else. What if the Houston Rockets strike out elsewhere? Is Barnes worth a gamble? Maybe. Say the Rockets did take a shot on Barnes; they'd add a growing talent who slides in on the wing, improves their defense and, in Mike D'Antoni's caffeinated system, puts up box score numbers that'd make his contract easy enough for Daryl Morey to justify, trade, or both. Puncturing a conference rival is an attractive incidental benefit, too.

Will the Los Angeles Lakers and Barnes' former coach Luke Walton show interest? A core of D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram/Ben Simmons, Harrison Barnes, Julius Randle, and Larry Nance Jr. is solid, and has some room for greatness. But the Lakers may prefer maintaining their flexibility, and Barnes wouldn't be a great fit in a superstar-or-bust fan culture. The Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards, Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves, Brooklyn Nets, and New York Knicks are a few other teams that may bite.

There's something reputable and appealing about starting for a team that nearly won back-to-back titles, and Barnes has done more than just stand in the right spots during that stint. All of which is to say that he will be getting paid by someone. Harrison Barnes will probably get paid a great deal of money next year, and the person that signs those checks will have watched him play basketball in the NBA Finals and made the decision anyway. Basketball is hard to predict, but the free market, at least in cases like this, is easy.