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Division Swing Factors Revisited, NFC

At the halfway point, we take a look at how teams in the NFC stacked up to our predictions.
Photo by Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Right before the season, we snuck in this look at the biggest swing factors in each division—the elements that could change each division race the most. At the halfway point of the season, we're looking back at what we thought then, and figuring out what we should think now.

Read More: NFL DFS, Week 9: The Sunday Crossword

NFC East: The Stories of Sam Bradford

Pull-quote: "… [Bradford] is a calculated risk. Rather than pour resources into a franchise quarterback, Philadelphia is trying to replicate the Drew Brees success story by bringing in a player with pedigree and hoping to rejuvenate him."

The Result: Eerily similar to our Ryan Tannehill look in the other conference, Sam Bradford has played more or less up to expectations, plus a few turnovers.

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This sounds better than it is: expectations weren't necessarily that flattering, here, and Bradford, outside of the second half of his first game against Atlanta, has played pretty poorly. (It's never a good sign when the thinkpieces about you focus on your possible benching. Especially when the other option is Mark Sanchez.) In short, he has played remarkably like the Sam Bradford we've always known.

The Eagles are in an interesting situation at this point. Both of their big-gamble offensive acquisitions have failed to this point. Bradford hasn't been what Chip Kelly has hoped, and DeMarco Murray has been outplayed by Ryan Mathews. Despite this, the NFC East continues to be eminently winnable. Philadelphia has the only empirically good defense in the division—third in DVOA through Week 7's games. If Bradford can cut down on the turnovers, the Eagles could still make the playoffs.

Tony Romo is lurking, but will the Cowboys be too far back when he comes back? Photo by Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The New Swing Factor: How far back will the Cowboys fall?

The Cowboys were 2-0 before Tony Romo went down. They haven't won a game since, as they alternate between the hilariously inefficient and wild Brandon Weeden and the calm checkdown machine known as Matt Cassel. And yet Dallas could still have been looking at a better picture had they simply won a close game. They're 0-3 in one-score games this year without Romo. They had Seattle on the ropes in Week 8, but couldn't pull off the upset.

There are no winning teams left on the schedule until Romo comes back. The Cowboys have to figure it's going to take nine wins to grab the NFC East. The math gets pretty simple from here: if Dallas can just get a little more luck in the next three weeks, they can still be a factor in December. If they're 2-8 when Romo gets back, this is a three-team race.

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NFC North: Teddy Bridgewater—Pro Day or Pro Bowl?

Pull-quote: "But if Bridgewater can't build on last season, or if he regresses to the player who compiled a 71.3 quarterback rating in the first half of his rookie season, the Vikings go from Super Bowl dark horse to 8-8 in a hurry."

The Result: Through his first nine starts in 2014, Bridgewater had a -28.0% DVOA, to go along with -225 DYAR. Through his first six starts in 2015, Bridgewater has -42 DYAR and a -14.6% DVOA. In other words, he's basically been the same quarterback he was over the entire balance of 2014, rather than the potential star he appeared to be in the second half.

Some of this can probably be blamed on coaching and the talent around Bridgewater. Teddy's offensive line is abysmal right now, with center John Sullivan out indefinitely and right tackle Phil Loadholt out for the year. His sack percentage has jumped from 8.5 percent in 2014 to 9.9 percent this year. This has absolutely influenced the play-calling, as offensive coordinator Norv Turner has kept things very basic and quick to keep Bridgewater from getting killed.

And so Bridgewater has become something of a checkdown machine. Through Week 7, among quarterbacks with more than 100 attempts, only Nick Foles had a lower success rate on short passing plays than Bridgewater. I've personally seen him purposefully eschew a few deep post routes that were open, and I'm not seeing a lot to be optimistic about right now. Things can change in a hurry in the NFL, but Bridgewater currently looks a lot more like the quarterback scouts dropped to the bottom of the first round than the sure-fire stud the analytics suggested he could be.

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The New Swing Factor: Can Minnesota hold on against their brutal second-half schedule?

Despite Bridgewater not playing well yet, there's a lot for Vikings fans to be happy about. At 5-2, they've got a game in hand on the rest of the NFC wild card field, and are just a game behind the Packers. The Falcons appear to be coming back to earth after their hot start, and Minnesota's defense is still underperforming its talent.

But here's the danger for the Vikings: they have the second most difficult remaining schedule in the NFL, per Football Outsiders. And this was before they took care of the reeling Bears. The only sub-.500 teams on their remaining schedule are the Bears and the 3-4 Giants. They play Green Bay twice, head to Arizona, Atlanta, and Oakland. Then, for good measure, they host St. Louis and Seattle.

It might take 10 or 11 wins to guarantee a playoff spot this year. That means Minnesota needs to at least play .500 ball against a tough remaining slate. They need rapid improvement and they need it fast.

Teddy Bridgewater: Not great, but maybe good enough. — Photo by Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

NFC South: Which Rebuilding Defense Can Suck Less?

Pull-quote: "…These were the two worst defenses in the NFL by DVOA in 2014. But with the Panthers desperate for offense and Tampa Bay suffering growing pains, it's not a stretch to suggest that the one that improves the most could win the division. My money is on the Falcons. The Saints have more known depth…"

The Result: Uh, well, if you ignore the part about the Panthers having problems, this was pretty spot on.

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Atlanta's defense lept up to 17th in DVOA (that's through Week 7, though the game against Tampa should only help). They're doing this despite an ugly Adjusted Sack Rate of just 3.1 percent, which is third-lowest in the league. Atlanta's Dan Quinn, as I suspected, could not drag a unit this bad all the way to great in one season. But he's done yeoman's work in turning it into a unit with a prayer.

On the other side of things, the Saints are 31st in defensive DVOA, ahead of only the 49ers, and just allowed 49 points to the Giants. There are young building blocks on this defense, but it's painfully obvious that Rob Ryan shouldn't be the architect who decides how to use them.

The New Swing Factor: New Orleans: the anti-Minnesota

At 1-4, people happily buried the Saints. While I tried to provide a nuanced view on this—that I think they are just done as a premium contender—I can understand if you lump me in with the rest of the team's undertakers.

Now at 4-4, New Orleans has the luxury of a beautiful end-of-season schedule. They play exactly two games against teams with winning records between now and the end of the season: at home against Carolina, and at Atlanta. They have three AFC South teams remaining on the slate, and get to play Detroit, Washington, and Tampa again. Even if they lose to the good teams, they can wind up at 10-6 just by taking care of business.

I don't really believe they're good enough to pull off that sort of run. Nor do I think they are the best bet to grab the second wild card. But they definitely have a chance to make it happen at this point, and that was hard to imagine a month ago.

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Carson Palmer is playing as well as ever. — Photo by Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

NFC West: Arians Versus Numbers

Pull-quote: "My belief is that the Cardinals are going to be a legitimate playoff contender again this season. Carson Palmer is back, and will be an upgrade if only because he isn't Ryan Lindley or Drew Stanton. Wide receiver John Brown looks poised for a breakout season. Most importantly, Bruce Arians has been an incredible head coach so far. And, in a division dramatically weakened by the 49ers' downswing, I can see the Cards racking up close wins just like they did last season.."

The Result: Close wins? Arizona only has one win by less than 10 points. Brown has broken out. Carson Palmer has been incredible. Arians has somehow revived Chris Johnson's career. This team isn't just a sleeper to make a playoff run—they're a legitimate contender right now, the only team in the NFL with a top-5 offensive and defensive DVOA through Week 7. At 6-2, it should be only a matter of time before the Cardinals lock up a playoff spot.

Now, the only question is if they can keep it up against the teams remaining on their schedule, a murderer's row of the NFC's best. The game against the 49ers is the only one Arizona has left on its schedule against a losing team. The next three weeks they'll be going to Seattle and St. Louis, while hosting Cincinnati. A losing streak could put them in a precarious situation.

The New Swing Factor: Has Jeff Fisher Found the Back to Restore the 1990s?

We've gone on and on about Seattle and their odds of coming back from purgatory to the playoffs. The most interesting reality in this division has nothing to do with them. The Rams are trying to recreate the Jeff Fisher Titans that the Greatest Show On Turf beat in the Super Bowl around the turn of the millennium, and they appear to be on their way.

Todd Gurley has been on a tear since getting elevated to the starting lineup, running for 575 yards in about a month. He's done this despite playing behind an offensive line that was so bad the team practically drafted an entire new one in Days 2 and 3 of the draft this year, and despite playing with caretaker quarterback Nick Foles, who is less of a game manager than a game babysitter.

And yet, while it's nice to have The Defense That RG3 Built, all they really need is Gurley. The Rams have been able to pound every team but Green Bay into submission since Gurley came back. And an upcoming schedule full of teams that can't stop the run should have Fisher doing whatever it is that he does when Gurley breaks another one to the third level (My guess: raising his eyebrows just below his sunglasses).

And here's the scary thing about a team like the Rams. You'll disregard them because they are stuck in the 1990s. You will. But if the game script tilts in their favor, any team in the conference will face an uphill battle to get back into the game. They're capable of beating anybody right now. All it takes is an early lead.