How the Spurs and Celtics Can Close Out, and the Rockets and Wizards Can Hold On

Which teams will have the opportunity to play spoilers for the seemingly inevitable NBA Finals rubber match between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors? We're close to finding out.

In the West, the San Antonio Spurs can advance to play the Warriors in the conference finals by eliminating the Houston Rockets in Game 6 of their semifinal series tonight. In the East, the Boston Celtics will have the same opportunity on Friday night to dispatch the Washington Wizards and move on to play the Cavaliers.

Here's how the Spurs and the Celtics can finish things off—and what the Rockets and the Wizards can do to force a pair of Game 7s.

Halfway through the third quarter of Game 5, it looked like the Rockets had figured out the Spurs. They raced out to a 75-67 lead behind a barrage of great drives and playmaking from James Harden and Eric Gordon, and had successfully sped up the pace of play. San Antonio's LaMarcus Aldridge, who had spent the last few games sinking deep on pick-and-roll coverage, was getting attacked left and right, and either conceding layups or open kickouts when his teammates collapsed into the paint to provide much-needed help.

And then, something strange happened: Houston appeared to run out of gas.

Harden stopped attacking the basket, the first sign of fatigue. He then started holding the ball at the top of the key for the first 15 or so seconds of each offensive possession, running down the shot clock before taking a few uninspired dribbles and launching a contested three-pointer.

The result? A complete collapse by the Rockets on offense, which abruptly ended a fairly fast-paced, well-executed initial 30 minutes of play that had sucked the Spurs into early offense and poor transition defense.

At least some of Houston's tiredness likely is the result of Nene being ruled out for the remainder of the season with a thigh injury prior to Game 5. That forced Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni to shorten his rotation to just seven players—an exhausting proposition in the regular season, and even tougher in the playoffs against the physical and defensive-minded Spurs. And in a Game 5 that ultimately went to overtime, it was a killer.

Tonight, Houston will need to find someone who can capably provide minutes. Sam Dekker is the likeliest candidate on the wing when either Trevor Ariza or Harden sits; the Rockets are more likely to get away that move if Kawhi Leonard is ruled out with a sore left ankle. Inside, D'Antoni may turn to Montrezl Harrell, particularly if the Spurs find better ways to exploit Ryan Anderson playing center. Neither Dekker nor Harrell is a great option, but even a few competent minutes could be the difference between closing out or coming unhinged.

Regardless of fatigue, Harden needs to keep attacking the basket. The Spurs had few answers for that, and had to be breathing huge sighs of relief every time he settled for a contested step back or hesitated in the pick-and-roll. Rockets center Clint Capela can make things easier for Harden by rolling hard to the rim on every possession. Numerous times in the fourth quarter of Game 5, Capela would either short roll or hang out near the top of the key.

That's not good enough. So long as Aldridge keeps sinking deep into the paint, hard rolls to the rim will force San Antonio's weakside defenders to collapse and tag the roller, opening up kickout opportunities. Abandon the roll and the drive, however, and Houston could end up reprising the final 20 minutes of Game 5: a complete and total meltdown.

The Spurs have owned the offensive glass in this series, grabbing 68 offensive rebounds to the Rockets' 46. Things could get worst for Houston. With Nene out, the already small Rockets are now hopelessly undersized at center. Capela managed to hold his own for much of Game 5—though he did given up a few crucial offensive rebounds late—but Anderson lacks the both the strength and the mobility to protect the paint and glass the way a traditional center can.

San Antonio attempted to exploit Anderson's poor defense by posting up Aldridge when the two were matched up. This had mixed results, and was far less successful than simply allowing the natural flow of their offense to place Anderson in unfavorable defensive situations. Since the sharpshooting stretch four isn't strong enough to hold rebounding position and isn't quick enough to discourage dribble penetration, the Spurs' best bet will be to spread the floor, attack the basket, and count on Anderson getting caught in the no man's land between helping and boxing out.

Some teams—Cleveland comes to mind—seem to have a defensive switch, a secret lever they can pull when the moment calls for heightened focus and execution. If the Wizards have one, they didn't show it in Game 5.

The Wizards weren't a very good defensive team during the regular season, finishing 20th in the league in DRTG. They had some pretty bad habits, and chief among them was routinely losing focus on the simplest rotations and assignments. The first quarter of their Wednesday night shellacking in Boston was more of the same.

The Celtics raced out to a 16-4 lead in the opening minutes, largely behind open layups, three-pointers, and transition baskets that were as much due to Washington's ineptitude as anything Boston did right. There were John Wall and Otto Porter, getting mixed up on a routine fast break and allowing Jae Crowder to casually score a layup. There was Wall again, the engine and leader of his team, giving up laughable backdoor cuts. And there was Ian Mahinmi, a veteran center being paid $16 million a year for defense, falling asleep and allowing an easy layup despite being in perfect position to challenge the shot.

Washington isn't going to evolve into a defensive juggernaut for Friday's Game 6, but the Wizards certainly can cut down on the dozen or so baskets they gave up through sheer lack of focus. That alone should prevent any 16-0 runs, and might be enough to send the series back to Boston for a Game 7.

As the Wizards struggled with transition defense, the Celtics raced to a big advantage. This wasn't a surprise: the team that has won the fast break battle also has won every game in this series.

Transition opportunities are especially important for Boston's many role players. Avery Bradley had the best game of his NBA career in Game 5, and the six points he scored off uncontested layups, along with two three-pointers, helped him establish rhythm and confidence. Crowder and Al Horford also helped carry the offensive load, looking aggressive early and helping to establish a chaotic pace.

The Celtics may have trouble repeating their performance in Game 6. Washington is a much better team at home, and no player is more comfortable or dangerous in the open court than Wall. Boston will have to find a delicate balance between playing fast and playing reckless, as the latter could produce turnovers and help the Wizards' role players flip the script. If the Celtics can pick up the pace but remain in control, they'll run their way to the Eastern Conference finals.

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