In Letting Wade Leave, the Heat Chose Financial Flexibility Over Sentiment

When the first tip-off of the 2016-17 season occurs on October 25th, there are going to be plenty of strange faces in new places. Kevin Durant will be in a Warriors jersey. Al Horford will be wearing Celtic green. Joakim Noah will finally get to play for his hometown New York Knicks. But all of these seemingly optical illusions will pale in comparison to seeing Dwyane Wade in a Chicago Bulls jersey. The former Miami Heat star shocked the NBA world on Wednesday night by agreeing to a two-year, $47 million deal to join his boyhood team.

It's impossible to overstate what Wade means to basketball in Miami, which makes the past week all the more abrupt and shocking. Simply put, the Heat has been his team basically from the moment he was selected fifth overall in the 2003 draft, and his name has become inextricably linked with the organization. He overshadowed a still in-his-prime Shaquille O'Neal in 2006 to lead Miami to its first-ever NBA championship, earning Finals MVP in the process. When LeBron James, the foremost superstar in basketball, joined the team in 2010, the Heat were still considered to be "Wade's team." Some even said James was simply hopping on the NBA champion's coattails in order to get a ring, which now seems silly in retrospect.

Wade, along with James, led the team to two more titles, and is the franchise's all-time leader in games, minutes, points, field goals (made and attempted), free throws (made and attempted), assists, and steals. So how does someone like that not end playing for one team his entire career? How does a situation that, at first, seemed to be a leverage play for more money end with a franchise icon suiting up for a different team?

The answer? Father Time, a low-ball offer, and market economics.

Pat Riley has never been one to settle for being part of a middle-of-the-road organization for an extended period of time. In 1990, he foresaw the end in his legendary run as head coach in Los Angeles, and left the aging Lakers after they crashed out in the Western Conference semifinals to a rising Phoenix team. Then in 1995, having just led the Knicks to a NBA Finals appearance the previous season, he left an older New York roster, with 32-year-old Patrick Ewing seemingly past the point of making All-NBA teams (he'd make one more, in 1997), to take a job with the Heat.

Riley's record as an executive in Miami has been similarly unsentimental in its pursuit of winning. After Wade led the team to a title with O'Neal in 2006, Riley noticed the Big Aristotle's decline and traded him to Phoenix in 2008 in exchange for Shawn Marion, who had one less year than O'Neal on his contract. That trade created the future flexibility that led to the formation of the Big Three in Miami.

But after James left to return home to Cleveland in 2014—much like what Wade has done by moving to his native Chicago—Miami has been a middling team the past two seasons.

The team has finished a combined 85-79 since the 2014-15 season, with Wade playing about 2,000 minutes per season in order to keep himself healthy for playoff runs. And while a healthy, invigorated Wade can still be a force on the floor, it's worth pointing out that the 34-year-old's play has dropped just slightly each of the last five seasons, from a 26.3 PER in 2012 to a still strong but more muted 20.3 last season. He has been occasionally brilliant in the playoffs, though. He put up a great line of 21.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in nearly leading an injury-riddled team to the Eastern Conference finals. But he's just not quite consistent enough to lead a team to a championship anymore. Similar to what happened with O'Neal, it was time for another star to step up and help Wade get the team to where it needed to go.

That's why the Heat (and Riley) wanted to retain Wade on their terms. While he's still a tremendous player, he turns 35 midway through next season and the team still needs more talent to seriously pursue a championship. It's worth pointing out that Wade has previously made sacrifices in order for the team to become a contender.

In 2010, Wade took less than the maximum to facilitate James and Chris Bosh joining the team. In 2014, he took a pay cut after opting out of a contract in order to help the team accumulate talent when James left. So while it's hard to blame Miami for asking Wade to sacrifice salary again, it's also impossible to blame Wade for feeling insulted by their reported $10-million-per-year offer that was eclipsed on a per-annum basis by backup Heat combo guard Tyler Johnson's reported four-year, $50 million offer sheet. It made very little sense in this marketplace for Wade to be only a $10-million-per-year player when role players and considerably worse shooting guards were getting more than that. With that in mind, Wade exploring his true value on the market seems like a completely rational decision.

For Miami, though, that low-ball offer made perfect sense. With Hassan Whiteside, Chris Bosh, Goran Dragic, and Justise Winslow set to make a combined $66 million next season, a larger offer to Wade considerably limited the team's flexibility moving forward. Signing Wade to a $10 million deal this year would have given the Heat a cap hold of $15 million next season to keep his Bird rights, leaving the team enough maneuverability under a near-$110 million salary cap to get another max contract on their books from 2017's loaded free-agent class that features Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin, Gordon Hayward, Paul Millsap, and possibly LeBron James and Kevin Durant again.

It's unlikely that Riley, at 71 years old, is going to jump ship to another team like he's done in the past. Convincing free agents to come to South Beach in 2017 to pair with Wade and the current core four was likely how he thought he'd make one last run at a title before retiring. Given his history, that would have been a pretty good strategy.

It would be foolish to ignore the emotions at play in negotiations like this, involving aging superstars, though. Eventually, Miami became comfortable with raising its offer to a reported two years, $40 million, likely deciding that Wade was worth more to them than the full flexibility afforded by his departure. The Lakers had a similar situation with Kobe Bryant in 2013, ultimately deciding that the legend of Bryant being a one-team player was worth more to them than an empty spreadsheet of salaries. Unlike the Lakers, who are still recovering from that two-year Bryant extension, the Heat will now get to move forward into a new era. Ultimately, this may be a blessing currently disguised as disappointment.

The team will now have nearly $40 million in cap space to add on to the current core: the burgeoning star Whiteside, who needs to still round out his game defensively despite making second-team All-Defense this past year; the former All-NBA point guard Dragic, who can both facilitate and score; and Bosh, who is not certain to play next year because of blood clotting issues that have plagued his recent career.

If Bosh can play, the Heat have a pretty impeccable group to sell to max-level free agents. If he is forced to retire, the Heat will gain back his salary cap space and then be able to sign two max-level players, just like in 2010 when they poached James and Bosh. That roster, along with the obvious advantages afforded by playing games in Florida for tax reasons and in South Beach for personal reasons, is a pretty darn enticing package for a prospective free agent. The Heat may drop back a bit this season without Wade, but it'll be a worthwhile, momentary blip if the team can convince a guy like Griffin to sign a long-term deal. They're in a pretty terrific position heading into next summer.

That probably won't do much good for Heat fans next year, though. The Wade era in Miami is now officially over after a rather public negotiation and stalemate. In his 13 years in Miami, Wade put basketball on the map in the city by helping bringing three titles, eight All-NBA selections, and memories that will last a lifetime. But in the end this is a business, and over the years Riley has shown himself to be quite the businessman. Things tend to work out when he's involved, largely because he puts his teams in a position to succeed at the opportune times. Ultimately, to let Wade move on could turn into the pivotal moment that leads to another successful run for Miami.

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