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Five Fantasy Football Busts for 2016

These are players you're usually drafting to start for your fantasy squad, or at least to threaten a starting spot. But you might want to rethink these five.
Photo by Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, I gave you five non-sleepers for 2016. Now I'm about to give you some possible busts. But what, pray tell, is the difference between a "non-sleeper" and a "bust"? It's all about draft position.

When we're evaluating sleepers, our minds are on value: Can we find players being selected in the later rounds of fantasy football drafts who might deliver starting-quality value? So when I'm describing "non-sleepers," I'm picking out players commonly believed to be potential sleepers in whose sleeper-hood I don't believe.

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Busts are something else. Now we're looking for players valued highly in average drafts. These are players you're usually drafting to start for your fantasy squad, or at least to threaten a starting spot. You've got dollar signs in your eyes, both because these dudes will cost a pretty penny and because you're envisioning the loot their excellent seasons will deliver. But I'm not so sure.

Read More: Five Fantasy Football "Sleepers" You Should Avoid

So let's dig into five potential fantasy busts for 2016.

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (Average Draft Position: 30th overall). I don't like including him here, because Hilton is a good player. If we fast-forward four months and it turns out he produced a top-ten fantasy season, it wouldn't floor me because the kid can really run and because Andrew Luck is good. I'm not holding last year against Hilton; heck, he finished 15th in receiving yards in a season during which Matt Hasselbeck was throwing him passes.

However, on film Hilton appears more limited than his current ADP gives him credit for. I think he's DeSean Jackson—perhaps a more emotionally stable DeSean Jackson. As such, his boom-or-bust potential works out well the week he booms, but I think we might start casting a side-eye at Hilton the way we do with D-Jax: weeks where his devastating vertical speed doesn't net him a big score, he might disappoint. I don't see loads of lateral quickness or corresponding broken-field runs; Hilton is a speed guy all the way. As the Colts begin to trust weapons like Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Allen, and Phillip Dorsett, maybe Hilton really becomes a more specialized player who is good and valuable NFL-wise, but maybe he becomes a bit frustrating for fantasy. Hilton won't give you nothing but at No. 30 overall (the No. 15 WR off the board) you're looking for every-week contributions, and my worry is you won't get them.

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T.Y. Hilton might be more bust than boom this season. Photo by Jim Steve-USA TODAY Sports

C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos (ADP: 28th). Here's another player I don't particularly take pleasure in slagging. I think he's pretty good. But I was suspicious when most folks called him a fantasy first-rounder last year, and somehow the market is ready to buy almost completely back in again. I say: beware when your instinct to take a player is based more on situation than talent. Not that I believe CJA is untalented—he's probably slightly above average for a NFL running back—but name the thing he does really well. He's not super quick. He's not big. He doesn't have long speed. He catches it pretty well.

My guess is that when we see rookie Devontae Booker out there, we might actually notice a difference in Booker's favor: while obviously Booker has never even played a meaningful NFL down, I think he may have more zero-to-60 explosiveness than Anderson when he finds a hole. Now, I'm not saying that because there's a rookie on the roster I like, it automatically means CJA is heading to the bench. I just think that by taking him No. 28 overall—13th among RBs in a standard league—you're building him up to be a pretty dang good player and not just someone who might be in an offense whose QB struggles and therefore might get a healthy workload. I won't be shocked to see Anderson rise to the occasion, but I also won't be shocked to see him do exactly what he did last year, which was completely stink. This consensus first-round pick finished 31st in RB fantasy points, you know? And he didn't look great on film doing it.

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Kevin White is essentially a rookie. Set your expectations accordingly. Photo by Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears (ADP: 97th). OK, I admit I'm stretching the definition of "I expect him to be a starter on my team." White isn't lining up as anybody's WR2 in Week 1. But you probably will have to take him in the top half of your draft, and I'm not into that. I think the kid has a potentially bright future ahead of him, but I wouldn't give a top-half pick to experience his '16 season in a re-draft league.

In some drafts I'm in, especially with industry people, White is leaking into the sixth or seventh round as people cast around for a high-upside player they can try as their flex. In leagues where waivers are competitive, I don't like this move. White redshirted last year because of a stress fracture in his leg, and in my mind he is still essentially a big raw rookie, albeit one who did get to read a NFL playbook and sit in meetings for a year. I'd be OK with a player like White as a nice-to-have bench player, but in most leagues there's at least one person who loves youth, loves the shiny bright new object, and someone like White—who was a high pick because he tested out so fast for a 6'3", 216-pound dude—will fill that bill. I think the best he's going to be this year is a tease; he may make a few big plays, but I'd expect mistakes and missed chemistry, all the stuff you usually get from rookie receivers.

It remains to be seen how DeMarco Murray will fare with the Titans. Photo by Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports

DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 40th). Yes, I'm aware that Murray looked good in the preseason. And yes, I'm aware he was fantasy's MVP two short years ago. But I'm fading DeMarco. If you're drafting him to be the 17th RB off the board, that means you believe he's a very good player who was somehow mistreated by Chip Kelly and the Eagles last year, and I just don't agree. I think he's an above average running back. I think he's got pretty nice lateral quickness and really nice burst for a 6'1", 220-pound player, plus a nice set of pass-catching hands. And if Derrick Henry weren't also on the Titans roster, perhaps I'd agree that Murray could be an every-week fantasy starter, but I'm a fan of the '15 Heisman winner and think that he'll be involved, especially as the season progresses.

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I don't expect Tennessee to be very good. I remain unconvinced that they've fixed what was one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and Murray has his own flaws. He's decisive when he sees a place to run, but otherwise he's almost too patient; Philly fans surely got tired of him drifting toward the sidelines waiting for an opening that never came. Let me reiterate: I think he's a good player. But I don't think he's the transcendent talent that his 1,800-yard season two years ago indicates, and I think he's in one of the NFL's worst situations. I'd rather place my bets on the best talents in the better spots.

Bortles has raw talent, but watch out for regression this year. Photo by Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Blake Bortles, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 84th). On paper, the fact that you can get Bortles as the No. 9 QB off the board looks like a steal, considering he finished '15 as fantasy's No. 4 signal caller. But I'm not biting.

Two seasons in, the raw talent Bortles gives the Jags is obvious: big player, big arm, really good runner. But I think his passing numbers will regress. His mechanics are a mess. Much of his production last year came when Jacksonville was losing—he led the NFL in TD passes when his team was trailing by seven, ten, 14, and 17 points—and often the reason Jacksonville was losing was that Bortles himself had made mistakes. On tape, I see poor footwork, poor arm-angle consistency, poor vision and decision-making. He throws on the run too much and his feet are all over the place; he gets himself in crazy positions and tries to rely on arm strength to rescue him, but often he winds up throwing wildly.

I'll admit this: Bortles is entering only his third campaign. Obviously, if I can see the flaws in his mechanics, the Jags can, too, and it's possible they can fix them. But they're not fixed yet. You're tempted to look at those 35 touchdowns last year and those 4,400 yards and those running chops and say, "Dude finished fourth in QB fantasy points last year! I'll be sneaky and take him as my starter!" And it sure enough could work out. Players get better. Derek Carr, I thought, got better from Year 1 to Year 2, so why can't Bortles get better Year 2 to Year 3? It could happen, and then he won't be a bust. But at his current price, I'm not paying to find out if improvements have happened.

For fantasy football advice based on film review every single weekday from now until 2017, listen to the Harris Football Podcast at www.HarrisFootball.com.