FYI.

This story is over 5 years old.

Sports

Syracuse Defies The Numbers; North Carolina Embodies Them; Seth Davis Ignores Them

North Carolina's old-school offense, Syracuse's incredible comeback, and Seth Davis's War on Math Nerds highlight our daily NCAA Tournament roundup.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

This feature is part of VICE Sports' March Madness coverage.

The Final Four is set, so let's look back at yesterday's action.

A miracle comeback

Nobody comes back from double-digits down to win against Virginia. That's not hyperbole, although it looks like it—before Sunday's NCAA Tournament game against Syracuse, the Cavaliers were 68-0 under coach Tony Bennett when leading by at least 10 at halftime. Anyway, the first sentence is no longer correct.

The Cavs make it nearly impossible for opponents to rally by playing: a) the slowest tempo in college basketball; b) efficient offense. Fall behind against Virginia, and they give you precious few opportunities to make up ground; moreover, the Cavs are very good at making shots themselves. The result is a slow, painful choke-out of your March Madness hopes and dreams. Ordinarily, anyway. UVA led by as many as 16 at points during the second half of its Elite Eight game against Syracuse, and by 14 points with 10 minutes left. Then, the entire Virginia game script flipped on its head.

Advertisement

Read More: Syracuse Made The Final Four By Pressing Its Luck

Syracuse started to press, forcing the Cavaliers into uncharacteristic turnovers. The Orange, according to coach Jim Boeheim, "made plays that were…that you would think from a basketball perspective could not be made."

Boeheim called it the biggest comeback in the history of Syracuse basketball. Given the stakes and the opponent, there's really no debating that.

TFW your goals are just out of reach. — Photo by Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

North Carolina's ultra-sustainable offense

North Carolina is not a good three-point shooting team, and in most circumstances, you would think that would come back to bite the Tar Heels. It probably would, if they weren't so good at everything else.

UNC ranks No. 285 in the nation in three-point percentage, but still has the most efficient offense in the country, according to KenPom.com. That's because the Tar Heels are so adept at getting high-percentage two-point shots—the sometimes-forgotten not-so-secret sauce of modern, analytics-driven basketball offense.

North Carolina's offense runs through its front court. The four most-used players when they're on the court are all forwards, thanks to the depth the Tar Heels have built. Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks don't even play 50 percent of available minutes, but when they're on the court, they see the ball more often than star guards Joel Berry and Marcus Paige. That means a lot of two-pointers—and during UNC's Elite Eight victory over Notre Dame, a lot of made two-pointers. The Tar Heels connected on a near-unbelievable 72 percent of their two-point shots against Notre Dame, leading to an incredibly efficient 1.54 points per possession and a 14-point win.

Advertisement

Still, Notre Dame has to be shaking its head, because the Irish actually played really well. They hit 50 percent of their three-pointers, 58 percent of their two-pointers, didn't turn the ball over and scored 1.3 points per possession. And they lost by 14!

That's how good North Carolina's offense is, and the scary part is that is appears sustainable. The Tar Heels get high-percentage shots, and they make them—they've done it all year. What a concept! And as Notre Dame just learned, it takes more than a great shooting game to beat them.

The most analytically-friendly shot is the one that goes in. — Photo by Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Statistics help you not say dumb things

Virginia is the slowest offense in the country. Anyone who watches the Cavaliers can see this. But that did not stop college basketball talker Seth Davis from commenting otherwise:

Virginia is deceptively up tempo. Love to run defense to offense in transition, score real early in the shot clock or real late.

— Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops)March 27, 2016

This is deceptively very wrong. Our eyes might tell us this anecdotally, but statistics help us be sure. The Cavaliers have the slowest tempo in the country. They rank No. 348 nationally in opponent's possession length and a whopping No. 347 in their own possession length, contradicting Davis' idea that the Cavs actually try to push the ball. Look: information helped Davis improve his knowledge about the game. That's cool, how information can do that.

Except, nope! Presented with this, Davis opted to call everyone who pointed this out to him nerds:

Advertisement

Here's a novel idea. Put down the spread sheet and watch … them … play. — Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops)March 27, 2016

Another analytics genius who reads numbers instead of watching teams play. Extra pocket protectors required. — Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops)March 27, 2016

There's a lot going on here, not the least of which is that the numbers are based on what actually happened on the court, and that if you watch Virginia, you already know that they play very slow. But that didn't stop Davis from doubling down on a pretty bad take, and casually insulting everyone else who actually knew better.

Don't be Davis. Use relevant information. Don't disparage people who have it. Both can help you be sure you actually know what you're talking about.

Quote of the day

Serial bad take-haver Dan Shaughnessy has a bad take: The historic dominance of UConn women's team's is actually bad. Huskies coach Geno Auriemma had a good response:

When Tiger [Woods] was winning every major, nobody said he was bad for golf. Actually, he did a lot for golf. He made everybody have to be a better golfer. And they did. And now there's a lot more great golfers because of Tiger. There are a lot better writers than Dan Shaughnessy, but that doesn't mean he's bad for the game.

Auriemma is good for basketball, and quotes like that show why he's also great for basketball writers.

Tweet of the day

The transitive property is the best metric of them all. Congrats to University of Arts and Sciences of Oklahoma on its transitive Final Four bid:

Syracuse lost to St. John's, who lost to Incarnate Word, who lost to Our Lady of the Lake, who lost to Univ. of Arts & Sciences of Oklahoma.

— Peter Botte (@PeterBotte)March 28, 2016

VICE Sports Tom Crean Memorial Coach Photo Of The Day

TFW you wear your hat like you're half Joe Camel and a third Fonzarelli. — Photo by Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

As always: you're welcome, America.