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The Case for Blowing It Up, and Building It Back Fast, in Atlanta

After Sam Hinkie's tenure in Philadelphia, tanking is out of fashion in the NBA. But if the Atlanta Hawks are willing to punt one season, it could change everything.
Photo by David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Whatever else can be said of Sam Hinkie's tenure with the Philadelphia 76ers, we at least know this: through their bad luck and their stubborn commitment to a vision that made millions of people uncomfortable, the Sixers successfully killed tanking as a socially acceptable exercise. It's sad, really. No franchise in today's NBA is aggressively focused on brightening its long-term prospects at the cost of its near-term record. The Process has the unshakable stigma of semi-permanent BO, and might be out of fashion for good.

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Which is strange, because this was the draft when Hinkie's faith was finally proved right. The Sixers finally got the top pick, and used it on Ben Simmons, a generational prospect who, if all goes according to plan, will be a taller, more explosive version of Magic Johnson. The other picks they made in the draft were all intelligent upside plays. They have cap space and more draft picks on hand—Philadelphia still owns the Los Angeles Lakers' first-round pick in 2017, a draft class that's expected to be far better than this year's—and they are inarguably headed in the right direction.

It's hard to see a full-spectrum Tank coming back into style anytime soon, but there is one team that should forget all that, be brave, and consider discreetly taking a step back for a year in order to give themselves the opportunity to build something big. It's not a losing team, either. It's the Atlanta Hawks.

Read More: Serge Ibaka and the New OKC: Unpacking Draft Night's Biggest Deal

Atlanta won 108 games over the past two seasons, and could keep that pace going next season, but their path to short-term contention is next to impossible. Kyle Korver is 35. Paul Millsap is 31. Thabo Sefolosha is 32. Tiago Splitter is a bruised banana. Minus two new rookies that we'll get to in a second, Dennis Schröder is the only player currently on their roster whose best days are ahead of him.

All this means that Atlanta enters the offseason in a tough spot. They improved their future prospects when they scored the 12th overall pick in Thursday's draft by shipping Jeff Teague to the Indiana Pacers, but it's not immediately clear where they go from here. One path is obvious: Convince Al Horford to stick around, hand the keys to Schröder, hope Taurean Prince and/or DeAndre Bembry can replace Kent Bazemore's production, and go hunting in free agency for an impact player.

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The problem with that strategy is that, short of convincing Kevin Durant to sign on, it both restricts flexibility and locks in the team at its current level—good, but not nearly good enough to win a championship unless LeBron James, Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, and Kawhi Leonard all take a few seasons off to backpack around Europe. Every other team in the league will have cap space, too, and banking on free agency as a means to go from good to great isn't the wisest long-term strategy. Teams that tread water don't drown, but they don't go anywhere, either.

To be fair, this is pretty good. Photo by Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

And then there's the other route. Instead of re-signing Horford and wasting their newfound cap space on the joyful but limited Bazemore, Atlanta could wait out this summer's paper-thin free agency class, let Horford walk, and trade their remaining vets for future assets while they still have some value. Given their new ownership and recent success, the Hawks probably won't actually do this, of course. That's a shame, because they're on the cusp of becoming precisely the type of team Danny Ferry fought so hard to vanquish after taking over as GM. They would be, in short, an updated version of the old, stymied Hawks, with Horford's five-year max contract filling Joe Johnson's shoes.

Mike Budenholzer wants to replicate San Antonio's familial culture, and that's a worthy goal. It's also one the Hawks can achieve if they start over now. They have the talent to deal, and the right trade could give them a chance to score a true blue-chip prospect. How do you get one of those? Start by shipping Millsap to (a desperate team like) the New Orleans Pelicans for a top-five protected first-round pick in 2017. Then sell Korver's expiring contract to the highest bidder; almost every team in the league would show interest, and for good reason.

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And then, well, you let Schröder loose alongside the team's two rookies and play hard, smart basketball, and you probably lose a bunch of games. But if the Hawks take their lumps for one season—and the more lumps the better, honestly—while maintaining cap flexibility, they'll be set up to pluck a franchise-boosting talent in next year's draft, which could be an exceptional one. If you have no realistic shot of winning it all this year, why not spend one season diving for the bottom of the barrel? This is not the endless can-kicking and compulsive asset accumulation of Hinkie's perpetual Tank. It's a one-year retrenchment with an eye on the future.

Even better, there's no team out there that could realistically out-tank the Hawks. The Orlando Magic just traded for Serge Ibaka and appear to be Going For It in their own goofy way. The Minnesota Timberwolves are about to conquer the universe. The Los Angeles Lakers have traded Kobe Bryant and Byron Scott for Brandon Ingram, Luke Walton, and whomever they sign in free agency. The Sixers have Simmons, whichever of their talented but flawed frontcourt players they choose to keep, and a front office that wants to win as many games as possible as soon as they possibly can. The Phoenix Suns have an owner whose only goal is to make the playoffs. The New York Knicks are delusional.

So, if you're Atlanta, who can be as bad as you? The Brooklyn Nets? The Chicago Bulls, provided they trade Jimmy Butler? The Memphis Grizzlies? The Sacramento Kings?

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When you consider the possibility of losing 62 games on purpose. Photo by David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

This is like taking candy from a baby. All Atlanta needs to do is be transparent with fans and agents. Let them know why this makes sense and make moves to ensure that the excavation won't last more than a year. Start building after next year's draft, with whatever new rookies are on hand, and then cannonball into a free-agent pool that could include Westbrook, Curry, Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, Gordon Hayward, Ibaka, and Durant, among others. Tons of teams will have cap space next year, but with a properly executed teardown the Hawks will have enough to offer three max contracts.

More than that, Atlanta isn't Philadelphia. This system helped turn Millsap into a multiple-time All-Star. DeMarre Carroll and Kent Bazemore spun their low salaries and limited skill sets into approximately one trillion dollars after finding their place in the Hawks rotation. It's also a fun city, give or take the apocalyptic traffic, and a place NBA players want to play. Even after a tank job, it won't be a radioactive destination.

Again, it's unlikely that the Hawks will go this route; it's a commitment, and a commitment to at least a year of having very little fun. But teams do stuff like this, and done right it can work. (The Utah Jazz let Millsap and Al Jefferson walk a few years ago, and they're now one of the most promising young teams in the league.)

No, you never want to go Full Hinkie. But it's OK to apply some of what he did to the general team-building process—because what he did worked. There are no guarantees in professional sports, but there are ways to play the system and spin the odds in your favor. As the man himself said in his unhinged exit letter, harvest the seeds you planted. Or, in actual English: lose now, win later.

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