Cam Newton’s Uphill Battle to Be NFL MVP

Picking an NFL MVP in 2015 is a simple process. We know that this NFL is a passing league. We know that quarterbacks have the most statistical impact on a passing game. Thus, we know that the NFL MVP is going to be a quarterback, barring something ridiculous. Adrian Peterson running for 2,000 yards was enough. J.J. Watt notching 20 sacks and nearly dragging the hapless Texans offense to the playoffs was not.

Seven of the last eight MVPs, and 16 of the last 21, have been quarterbacks. The others have all been running backs. With most of the star rushers already on the shelf with injuries this season, that points us to quarterback.

I'd like to tell you it's a wide-open race and that anything can happen, but most of the media have narrowed this down to three candidates already. I think Russell Wilson still has a chance to sneak into the conversation if he can replicate his past five weeks. But, for now, this is who we have: Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, and Cam Newton.

One of these candidates, statistically, is not like the others:

Now, it's important to note that Newton also adds about 115 rushing DYAR to his arm. Still, that puts him in the statistical territory of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor. Not exactly the players you'd want general managers to compare you to come contract time. On pure passing, Football Outsiders puts his statistical contributions below Matthew Stafford. Stafford has been so inconsistent that the Lions benched him earlier this year.

So, why the massive divide in statistical value and voters thinking Newton belongs in this race? Part of the divide is explained by zero, as in zero Panthers losses. More important, Newton's supporting cast isn't anywhere near what Brady and Palmer have to work with.

Brady has played most of this season with Rob Gronkowski, the kind of star tight end who is incredible enough to become the subject of erotic novels. Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola are both good receivers in their own right. Brady's ability to throw at a running back like Dion Lewis, though though he's out for the season now, buoyed the quarterback's statistics early.

As for the Cardinals, head coach Bruce Arians and general manager Steve Keim have gifted Palmer with a lot of weaponry in Arizona. "Smokey" John Brown leaves vapor trails behind him at the line of scrimmage. Larry Fitzgerald is a Hall of Fame–caliber wide receiver. Many teams would kill to have Michael Floyd as their No. 2 receiver, here he's a No. 3. J.J. Nelson has contributed in small doses. New starting back David Johnson has been an excellent receiver from Day 1. To top it all off, Palmer—and I can't believe I'm writing this after so many years—plays behind a good offensive line.

Contrast that to what Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman has put in front of Newton, and the stats make sense. Michael Oher, starting Panthers left tackle and Blind Side cover boy, has consistently been among the NFL's blown block leaders over the past three years. Per Football Outsiders, he blew 19.5 blocks and allowed 5.5 sacks in just 11 games in Tennessee last season. At right tackle. He was so bad that the Titans released him even though it meant running a third-round rookie at right tackle to start the season. Getting released by the Titans is as close to a near-death experience as an NFL career has. And the Panthers picked up this guy, on purpose, and made him their starting left tackle. He's playing a harder position, even!

When star rookie Kelvin Benjamin, an unfinished product in his own right, hit the shelf with a torn ACL in training camp, the Panthers had to get creative. Other than Greg Olsen—a good receiver who can split out to multiple places—at tight end, this is a rag-tag collection of players with little in the way of good NFL experience. The Carolina receiver with the most snaps this season? Corey Brown! Brown, also known as "Philly" Brown, had 21 receptions in his career coming into this season. Carolina traded up for second-rounder Devin Funchess, who has made some plays in limited samples this year but is still inconsistent. NFL.com's Reception Perception guru, Matt Harmon, noted that Funchess' SRVC scores are "actually quite dreadful" at the moment.

And then there's the fact that Ted Ginn is the wide receiver with the most catches on this team. I can explain his career in one small clip.

I think it's hardly launching a war on advanced statistics to argue that Newton plays better than the numbers would suggest. NFL advanced stats, frankly, are not that worthwhile at context beyond the team level. It's asking a lot for one or two metrics to encompass the totality of one pass interaction. Cam Newton doesn't have a 5.0% DVOA. Cam Newton Throwing at Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess Behind Michael Oher has a 5.0% DVOA.

How will this play out at the voting stage? Some MVP voters like simple statistics, and others are fonder of the advanced versions. Ideally your eyes would make up for what the statistics can't inform you, rather than the other way around, but most writers will not go into this watching every Panthers game. In fact, most NFL media people probably don't watch half of the games played in any given week.

And that's why Newton's MVP case will have to be built from a different context-dependent statistic. Voters are going to see Palmer and Brady's stats and measure them against Newton's. It's not going to be fair, but it is going to happen.

Newton's rebuttal can't be "But… but… but Ted Ginn!" To win the MVP, it needs to be "Zero losses."