Trevor Story and the Year of the Unheralded Prospect

By now, you've undoubtedly heard about Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story.

Here's a brief rehash for those living underneath a rock—or those baseball fans conditioned to ignore the Rockies. Last week, Story became the first player to homer in each of his first four career games. Then, on Sunday, he became the quickest player to seven home runs in a season.

He's homered off aces and relievers, fastballs and breaking balls, mistakes and well-placed pitches. He's homered at home and on the road, with and without baserunners, against lefties and righties. He's done it all―including seemingly ensuring that Jose Reyes won't be the Rockies regular shortstop if and when he returns from the limbo he entered following his offseason arrest for domestic violence.

Story has done something else, too: he's helped make the season's first week feel more special than usual. If baseball loves two things, it's labeling certain behaviors "the right way" and declaring nascent trends "the year of the [whatever]." A week in, 2016 has been the year of the unheralded prospect. In addition to Story, Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Ross Stripling took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his first start, while Houston Astros first baseman Tyler White entered Monday hitting .556/.591/1.167―yes, really.

Not that Story, Stripling, or White were total unknowns to the hardcore fan. This is the era of information. Decades ago, finding out anything about most non-elite prospects was a dicey proposition. These days, the rise of the hobby scout―those who answer the siren's call beckoning them to pursue the unattainable goal that is projecting younger players―has led to more and more players being covered and fewer and fewer relative unknowns reaching the majors. And before you dismiss the credibility of all those reports, it's worth noting that an increasing number of these hobby scouts have been hired by teams.

One such hobbyist turned professional is Al Skorupa, who joined the Oakland Athletics during the offseason. Before that, he just so happened to write a report on Story. In it, Skorupa estimated Story would reach the majors in 2017, and tabbed him with a 40- and 50-grade hit and power tools―or scoutese for a .240 average with 15 to 18 home runs. Skorupa went on to project Story to become a second-division shortstop, noting he could fit in the Jed Lowrie class of shortstops with more offense than defense.

Story has certainly delivered more offense than defense―how could he not―but it is possible he was sold short as a prospect?

The best contemporary example of a player clearly outperforming his prospect status right away is Yasiel Puig―lest we forget the tepid response to his initial signing. But there's an important difference here: Puig was an international signing; Story, originally a supplemental first-round pick, has been on scouting radars since his high-school days―he should have been as close to a known quantity as it gets. Yet Story entered the season ranked modestly within the (admittedly loaded) Rockies system by the industry's most respected prospectors: Baseball America placed him eighth; Baseball Prospectus had him 10th; and Keith Law represented the relative low man, inserting him at 11 (it's worth noting Law wrote he was "probably too good to be just someone's utility infielder").

The reasons for Story's down-the-list placement had to do with his risky profile. As Christopher Crawford, one of Baseball Prospectus' lead prospect writers, explained, the book on Story was that he was "strong" with a "really quick bat," but that he struggled to make consistent contact―a concern that remains, given that he's made contact on fewer than 70 percent of his big-league swings, per Baseball-Reference. His stock was also deflated because he could have to move off shortstop in time (likely over to third base).

Those are all fair and valid points. Still, you can't help but root for his impressive run to continue. After all, the success of Story cuts to what many of us love about baseball: the feeling that anything can happen on any given pitch, or in any given series. That sensation is tested more in this era of information. We have numbers on almost everything, and while that no doubt makes for smarter―or at least more informed―onlookers, it runs the risk of giving us a false sense of precision, a feeling that we know what's most likely at all times.

Ascents like Story's ought to humble us, or at minimum push us to question our confidence in our beliefs. In this case that means asking questions like, Should Story's hot week cause us to revise our reports? Normally, one would say no since it's only a week (Crawford, for his part, said just that) . . . but what if we consider what Bill James called signature significance―e.g., a performance above and beyond that only the best achieve? Is it possible that Story has already proven himself to be more than we thought he was? The answer is different for everyone, and these talks inevitably lead to inane, circuitous arguments about small samples and so on that won't conclude until Story has enough time in the majors to show us what he is―a second-division shortstop, or someone with the potential to unleash home-run high-heaven on the opposition.

Let's all agree on this: however Story's tale plays out, we can appreciate that he gave us something different during baseball's first week, and a timely reminder of why we love sports. You can never be quite sure what you'll see, even in an era where it seems like you should be.