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It's Now or Never: How the Wizards Can Make a Deep Postseason Run

If the Wizards can add some depth to their bench before the trade deadline, they might be Cleveland's most overlooked concern come May.
Photo by Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Don't let the standings fool you—the third-ranked Washington Wizards might be the second best team in the Eastern Conference.

They lead the league in wins since January 6, with 16, and most of those have been convincing blowouts. Their only three losses in that time have been a wrestling match against Boston, a one-point defeat in Detroit, and an overtime thriller against Cleveland, in which LeBron James hit one of the more implausible shots of his entire career at the end of regulation.

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After surviving a painful 2-8 start way back in November, the Wizards now hover around a top-ten offense, defense, and net rating. Since New Year's Eve, only two other teams possess a top-five offense and top-five defense: the Golden State Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs. Translation? Washington is moonlighting as a legitimate title contender, and they have every reason to go all in right now. If they can add some depth to their bench before the trade deadline, they might be the Cavaliers' most overlooked concern come May.

Read More: Sorting Out the Eighth Seed in the West

The Wizards boast the NBA's top transition defense and force the second most turnovers in the league when ball-handlers attempt to score out of the pick-and-roll, per Synergy Sports. At their best, Washington is vacuum-sealed on defense, with help defenders who swarm passing lanes, ignore non-shooting threats, and are athletic enough to sink inward before they dart back out to contest any shots. Only the Warriors average more deflections per game.

Some of the plays seen above are calculated gambles that can and will get exposed by three-point-happy teams in a seven-game series. The Wizards are also prone to breakdowns from the weakside after they squeeze an initial pass to the screener, especially when center Marcin Gortat is up high staying level with the pick. (According to Synergy Sports, Washington ranks 25th defending roll men.)

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But helping them rise above a few defensive inconsistencies is the best backcourt in the Eastern Conference (sorry Toronto!), starring John Wall and Bradley Beal. Going against them is like driving towards a tornado during a blizzard—they're a tandem that blitzes in transition, clogs passing lanes, attacks the rim, and creates open looks that prop up a sometimes-feeble supporting cast.

Wall and Beal's combined usage rate is 57 percent. Their combined scoring average is 45.3 points. The Wizards outscore opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions when they share the floor but struggle when only one is out there.

That dilemma speaks to Washington's fundamental issue: theirs is an extremely top-heavy roster, with a starting lineup that has played nearly an entire game's worth of minutes more than any other five-man unit in the league. That Wall, Beal, Gortat, Otto Porter, and Markieff Morris group is a battering ram, but Washington still doesn't get to the free-throw line very often, and the three-point arc is a foreign concept for nearly everyone on the team except Beal, Porter, and Wall, the latter of whom isn't a good outside shooter.

They have a negative point differential when any one member of that starting five is on the bench, but over their last 15 games they've somehow managed to outscore opponents when either Wall or Beal is off the court. Washington's offense plummets, but their defense thrives.

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When your bench is almost entirely useless. Photo by Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

In a way, the Wizards' lack of depth is not the worst problem in the world. The playoffs will narrow head coach Scott Brooks' rotation even more than it already is, reducing time for Jason Smith, Trey Burke, and Tomas Satoransky while increasing minutes for his best players and most effective lineups. And unlike some teams that are still figuring out which groups work best, Washington knows their strengths. Hurray.

But that doesn't mean they're strong enough to punch through two playoff rounds to (presumably) square off against the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. One health-related hiccup after the All-Star break would almost certainly allow the Raptors to pass them in the standings, and a drop to the four or five seed likely means a second-round date with LeBron.

This poses an unavoidable question as the trade deadline nears: How aggressive should Washington be? Are they confident enough in Ian Mahinmi's knee to think he can give reserve units a boost? Or are they willing to mortgage future assets in an attempt to shore up their short-term chances?

Washington has very little financial flexibility going forward; assuming they give Porter the max contract he's worth this summer, they won't have any cap space for the foreseeable future. They still own all their future first-round picks, but after dealing 2014 and 2016 first-rounders to the Phoenix Suns for Gortat and Morris, respectively, they may want to add a relatively cheap rookie contract out of the 2017 NBA Draft pool, which scouts regard as particularly deep.

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That doesn't mean Washington is out of options, however. If the Wizards feel that they're one player away from putting up a respectable fight in the final four, then by all means they should try and add him. Teams that lack foresight typically watch their schemes blow up in their faces. People lose jobs and hope is lost. If they keep this year's first-rounder, the Wizards really can't afford to whiff—a problematic situation, considering this front office's draft history. They also have only two more years before Wall becomes eligible for a mega-deal that kicks in when he turns 29. The window is open right now.

Kelly Oubre Jr. is the Wizards' best trade asset. Photo by Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Assuming all five starters and their 2017 first-round pick are off limits, how can Washington upgrade? And where do they need it the most? Kelly Oubre Jr. is a promising wing who just turned 21 years old, but he isn't quite ready to provide everything that this team needs from a sixth man. He's the exact type of high-upside prospect a capped out team can't afford to lose, but he's also their best trade asset. Theoretically, Washington could ship him, Andrew Nicholson's minor albatross contract, and a lottery-protected 2018 first-round pick to the Denver Nuggets for Wilson Chandler.

While the Nuggets are battling for the eight seed in the West, and Chandler is a helpful contributor—especially since Danilo Gallinari injured his groin—they've been better all year when he's on the bench (including over their last 15 games), and are deep enough on the wing to make the playoffs so long as Gallo returns before the trade deadline. By trading Chandler, Denver also could recoup the pick they just surrendered to Portland for Mason Plumlee.

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The Wizards could straight-up swap Oubre for Minnesota's Shabazz Muhammad. The Timberwolves don't seem all that enthused about Muhammad, and obtaining a moldable asset like Oubre for a soon-to-be restricted free agent would make sense for them. Muhammad is the better player, however, and in Washington he could slide right into the same role he holds with the Timberwolves, except he'd be surrounded by more talent. The Wizards might even be able to wedge a second-round pick out of the Timberwolves for the trouble.

Another option would be prying Brandon Knight from the Suns for Burke and Nicholson—Phoenix would save some long-term money, while Washington would be buying low on a talented player in desperate need of a change of scenery. Knight fits the Wizards' biggest area of need, a backup combo guard who can manufacture offense for the team's second unit while allowing Brooks to give Wall and Beal more rest.

If Washington is willing to give up this year's first-rounder, a swap that sends out the pick and brings back Los Angeles Lakers guard Lou Williams could work well for both sides.

All these deals would add salary to an organization that threw bags of cash against the wall last July, and none of them guarantee playoff success. But they would add more versatile skill to a bench that's currently saddled with unplayable pieces.

There are no easy answers. Washington may not have a path to actually win it all with Wall as their franchise player, but given that their payroll is already hefty, Beal is finally healthy, Porter is whipping fireballs at the rim, and Gortat is still hanging on to the remnants of his underrated prime, it's looking more and more like now or never. The future may never get any brighter than the present for Washington, so they might as well milk this chance for all it's worth.

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