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Big 12 Teams' Playoff Chances Are Looking Pretty Grim Right Now

Just two weeks into the 2016 season, the Big 12's Playoff chances are significantly worse than the chances of any other conference.
Oklahoma State, representing the Big 12 sadness after yesterday's controversial loss to Central Michigan. Photo by Alonzo Adams—USA Today Sports

The Big 12 has spent a lot of money in the past year trying to figure out how to make the College Football Playoff. The league even bought into the fake math of an outside consultant to see how it can avoid being left out of the Playoff field.

The inconvenient way is there's only one way to optimize your Playoff chances: get better teams. Unfortunately, the Big 12 appears to have forgotten about that part of the equation.

Just two weeks into the 2016 season, the Big 12's Playoff chances are significantly worse than the chances of any other conference. No team is eliminated from the Playoff just yet, but the best teams in the conference have zero margin for error. For instance:

  • Oklahoma, a 2015 Playoff participant, lost to a Houston team that has a chance to win out. It's unlikely OU could jump an undefeated Houston. Still, Oklahoma now has to win nine Big 12 games and beat Ohio State next week. Good luck.
  • TCU looked like the second-best Big 12 team heading into the season. Then the Horned Frogs lost to Arkansas.
  • Baylor is 2-0, but the Bears have only played cupcakes and got into a dogfight with SMU this week.
  • Oklahoma State lost to Central Michigan this week.
  • Kansas (lol) and Iowa State (lolol) aren't helping the strength of schedule.

In reality, the best chance for the Big 12's Playoff chances might be Texas, which has a signature win over Notre Dame and looks vastly improved from last season. But the Longhorns have a young team, including a true freshman quarterback, so winning 12 games—or even 11, or 10—is a lot to expect.

Making matters worse for the Big 12, this looks like a year when an outsider, like Houston, could make the Playoff. That could leave just three other spots for a Playoff bid. With the SEC and ACC each likely to get a spot, plus Ohio State and Michigan both looking solid (and don't forget about Stanford in the Pac-12), the conference is fighting an uphill battle.