Previewing the Quarterback Swap Meet of the 2016 Offseason

We are nearly three-quarters of the way through the NFL season, and most of the playoff picture is pretty settled thanks to league-wide parity, especially in the NFC.

But many teams still have an unsettled quarterback situation. More than half the teams in the NFL have started multiple quarterbacks this season. In some cases, this is an admission of defeat or a bad offseason rather than an injury. Let's look at how we can expect this quarterback carousel to unfold.

Almost Certainly Sticking with Their Quarterback: Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers), New England (Tom Brady), Pittsburgh (Ben Roethlisberger), Arizona (Carson Palmer), Carolina (Cam Newton), Indianapolis (Andrew Luck), Atlanta (Matt Ryan), Oakland (David Carr), Seattle (Russell Wilson), Minnesota (Teddy Bridgewater), New York Giants (Eli Manning), Tampa Bay (Jameis Winston), Tennessee (Marcus Mariota)

Barring a severe injury, the only guy on this list with a chance of being deposed is Teddy Bridgewater. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt for now, but his lackluster play has opened up the possibility.

Probably Sticking with Their Quarterback: Cincinnati (Andy Dalton), Dallas (Tony Romo) San Diego (Philip Rivers), Buffalo (Tyrod Taylor), Miami (Ryan Tannehill), Kansas City (Alex Smith), Jacksonville (Blake Bortles)

Andy Dalton and Alex Smith are charter members of the "just good enough to win with" club. Ryan Tannehill is itching to make his membership in that club permanent. Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles have both shown enough promise when they've been healthy to make me think that management will make them the unquestioned starters next year. I don't think either is necessarily a franchise quarterback, but they've both been better than I expected. Tony Romo will get an injury pass unless the end of his season looks horrendous.

Philip Rivers is old, and he's playing on a bad team that may move to Los Angeles. He has a newly signed contract that is pretty affordable (four years, $83 million), and is a legitimate franchise quarterback. The new contract is the only reason I have to believe that he won't be discussed given all the talk about that last year. If Rivers were available, he'd be at the top of the list for suitors.

Legitimate Question Marks: Baltimore (Joe Flacco), Detroit (Matthew Stafford), Philadelphia (Sam Bradford), New York Jets (Ryan Fitzpatrick), Chicago (Jay Cutler), New Orleans (Drew Brees)

In normal circumstances, I don't think Joe Flacco would be available. I don't actually expect Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome to make him available. But his contract is simply a disaster.

Yes, the Ravens will probably be able to get out of it via some sort of loyalty renegotiation with Flacco. Baltimore is the kind of organization that, even in a down year, has proven it deserves the benefit of the doubt (unless NFL referees can take that away from them, too). If Flacco really wanted to take them to the table, he certainly has a terrific bargaining position given all the dead money that would wash up on Baltimore's cap if they got rid of him.

The situation in Detroit is fascinating. Matthew Stafford is highly regarded by scouts for his cannon arm. His actual statistics aren't very impressive, and the offense in Detroit has devolved this year in spite of Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, and Ameer Abdullah. Stafford has some Cutler vibes to him. With former general manager Martin Mayhew done in Detroit, it's an open question what the Lions will do. Bleacher Report's Jason Cole reported as many as four teams are interested: the Texans, the 49ers, the Browns, and the Jets. His base-year salaries are pretty reasonable to take in a trade.

Ultimately, I have a hard time believing that Detroit can give up on Stafford. The path of least resistance is admitting that deposed offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi tried to install a system that didn't fit Stafford's skills. If Detroit does give up on him, however, I think they could get at least a second-round pick in return. Maybe more.

I don't understand sticking with Sam Bradford. He's done nothing in his career to show he's worth the time. Yet he's Chip Kelly's handpicked guy—even with Bradford as a free-agent-to-be, I expect the Eagles to make a short-term commitment to him.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting to blur the line between caretaker quarterback and "just good enough to win with" after last season in Houston and this year with the Jets. That said, the Jets probably aren't real believers, and Fitz is a free agent at the end of the year. I expect change here, and I expect it to be pretty bold.

Jay Cutler has played much better this season under the care of offensive coordinator Adam Gaze. But given how much bad blood has been spilled between the Bears and Cutler over the past few seasons, I think it's very possible the Bears cut him this offseason, when his contract will finally create some extra cap space.

This situation is a true toss-up at this point. The Bears could always allow Cutler to soak up snaps while they get a highly drafted rookie ready for 2017. I would lean toward not doing that, but it's defensible given how quickly the NFL often asks young quarterbacks to be ready.

Drew Brees would clearly be the best quarterback available of this group. The Saints defense is trash, and they've already started a youth movement with five picks in the top 80 last year. His 2016 cap number is $30 million, and the Saints drafted quarterback Garrett Grayson in the third round this year. I think all the signs in New Orleans point to him becoming available. The only question is how much draft capital they can get and what kind of contract Brees is willing to take.

Predictions: Saints move on from Brees. Jets let Fitzpatrick walk unless they can't do better. Eagles keep Bradford. Ravens renegotiate with Flacco. The Bears pick a quarterback in the first two rounds. The Lions opt to keep Stafford—for now.

Youth Question Marks: Denver (Peyton Manning/Brock Osweiler), Cleveland (Johnny Manziel), Washington (Kirk Cousins)

This group requires more guessing. I'm not only projecting how I expect the quarterbacks to perform for the rest of the season; I'm projecting how I expect the coaching staff and ownership to react. So, keep that in mind in case you come back to this article in six months and wonder how I could be so far off.

By signing Gary Kubiak to be their head coach, the Broncos made the statement that they weren't interested in being Peyton Manning's final stop. Manning has been bad this year, no question about it. I think there's probably a starting job for him next year, a la Brett Favre's final year with the Jets, but it won't be in Denver. Manning will have to accept that his health will now always be a question mark.

Osweiler is being put in a situation where he should succeed. The Denver defense, though it has tanked the past few weeks, is pretty great. Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Vernon Davis are a great receiving core. The offensive line is bad, but Kubiak has engineered successful short passing games with less. I initially thought that Osweiler was a reach, and his preseason work was riddled with question marks. I expect his play to be up-and-down enough for the Broncos to give him a few more games. That means it's time to find a caretaker bench quarterback just in case Osweiler faceplants to begin 2016.

I expect Manziel to enter 2016 as the unquestioned starter in Cleveland. The Browns are going to lose a lot of games the rest of this season—their schedule is tough—but Manziel has shown me enough to earn a full chance. He impressed at times against both the Bengals and the Steelers, though he couldn't overcome the penalty-fest that the rest of his offense generated. Given Cleveland's predilection for botching draft picks, they might as well let one that has displayed promise get a full shot. Josh McCown can stay on board to babysit.

I personally wouldn't stick with Kirk Cousins. His advanced statistics are going to be off the charts following the pad-the-stats game against the Saints, but he's extremely turnover prone and has limited range. He's Blake Bortles without a deep ball. That said, Washington has few things to get excited about, so as a result Cousins will probably be the guy here next season as long as he's not asking for the moon.

Predictions: All three young quarterbacks are Day 1 starters, the Broncos find a run-oriented caretaker (Cutler? Kaepernick?), and Washington drafts someone on Day 2 to hedge against a re-signed Cousins failing.

Festering Holes: Houston (Brian Hoyer, etc.), San Francisco (Colin Kaepernick/Blaine Gabbert), St. Louis (Nick Foles, etc.)

The Texans have another year on Hoyer's deal, though he's owed no guaranteed money. Trying to read the tea leaves on this situation seems pretty impossible given that the Texans could easily go into a tailspin and fire their head coach or general manager, or both. For now, I think Hoyer will be back—but he won't be alone.

San Francisco's situation seems pretty simple on paper: the head coach isn't qualified, the quarterbacks aren't allowed to throw deep, and the general manager still has a lot of influence. The 49ers can save $9.4 million by cutting Kaepernick, and they clearly have no faith in him at this point. Gabbert has a mostly non-guaranteed deal for 2016, though that shouldn't actually matter.

The Rams don't necessarily have to keep Nick Foles, but most NFL teams won't put $8 million in dead money on the books just to save $500,000 in cap space. Such is the dilemma in St. Louis, where Foles's $6 million roster bonus was fully guaranteed under the terms of his offseason extension. Case Keenum isn't an actual answer. The fact that the Rams spent a third-round pick on Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion tells me they probably won't drop much more capital at the position this year, which makes me think a new caretaker will replace Keenum this offseason.

Predictions: The Texans (unless O'Brien is canned) and the Rams chase after Brees and Manning, and their main competition will be the Jets. San Francisco selects a quarterback in the first two rounds of the draft, and pairs him with a stopgap solution for the present.