How The Cavs Give The Warriors Fits: Adam Mares' NBA Wraparound

It has been a long time since the NBA had a Finals trilogy.

While the regular season is only halfway through, it's already clear that the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors stand head and shoulders above the pack, just as they have the last two seasons. Sure, there have been some curveballs along the way—like Oklahoma City taking a 3-1 lead over Golden State in last year's Western Conference Finals—but in the end, the NBA's two titans have rolled through every obstacle they've faced.

The rest of 2016-17 promises more of the same. Houston has built an incredible offense. San Antonio has retooled after the departure of Tim Duncan. The Los Angeles Clippers remain formidable when healthy, Utah looks like an up-and-coming two-way team that could be dangerous in a seven-game series, and Toronto might challenge if it can pull off the right trade deadline deal. Still, the Warriors are trouncing the league on the offense end of the floor, and the Cavs—reportedly about to add sharpshooting Kyle Korver—might sport their best collection of talent since LeBron James returned to Cleveland.

During the last two NBA Finals, the Cavs were underdogs. In 2015, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving suffered postseason injuries that left James and his teammates severely outmatched; last year, the Warriors were coming off a record-setting 73-win regular season and looked unstoppable. But this year? If both teams advance to the championship series, Cleveland might actually have the upper hand, even if Las Vegas has Golden State as heavy favorites.

Let's take a closer look at what makes the Cavs such a tough matchup for the Warriors:

Statistically speaking, Golden State's defense is basically unchanged from last season—the Warriors have nearly the same DRTG, and they're allowing fewer points in the paint per game. However, the way in which the team protects the rim is different.

Last year, Golden State's leading shot blocker was Andrew Bogut, a crafty and physical staring center who patrolled the paint as a kind of basketball free safety, rarely leaving the painted area and forcing opponents to second-guess their dribble drives. When ballhandlers blew by the Warriors' perimeter defenders, Bogut was there to challenge shots.

Now that Bogut is in Dallas, Golden State has turned to rim protection by committee, relying on wing players to rotate more into the paint. Zaza Pachulia has replaced Bogut, and his 0.5 blocks per game is only fifth-best on the team—behind JaVale McGee, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Kevin Durant, the latter of whom leads the Warriors in blocks. According to SportVu, the Warriors run 8.1 miles per game as a team on the defensive end, the fourth highest mark in the NBA and up from 7.84 miles per game last season, which ranked No. 12. This doesn't appear to be random noise, either, as Golden State has decreased its total team distance run from 9.1 miles to 8.95 miles per game on the offensive end.

While rim protection by committee works against most of the league, it won't work against Cleveland in a seven-game playoff series. James is a master of moving defenders around the court like chess pieces in order to make it as difficult as possible for them to help and recover off of shooters. When Bogut was on the court, no matter how you stacked the deck, he was always there to challenge point-blank attempts. Without him, the Cavs can force guys like Durant into choosing between helping at the rim or sticking with a deadly knockdown shooter such as Love.

In the clip below, watch how the Warriors' two best rim protectors, Durant and Green, are placed on the weak side where they must keep an eye on Love in the corner. The Cavs run a three-man game on the opposite end of the floor that produces two good looks, one for Iman Shumpert popping out to the three-point line, and one for James right under the basket:

With the Cavs adding Kover, this will be an even bigger issue. Korver might be the single best catch-and-shoot player in the NBA, and will take one defender out of the paint on very offensive possession. Meanwhile, Love is shooting 39.7 percent from behind the arc, the second-best mark of his career. When those two are sharing the floor, three Golden State defenders will be left to guard James, Irving, and glass-crashing Tristan Thompson. Good luck with the committee approach.

It's difficult to use advanced stats to determine how well teams perform in the half court versus how they perform in transition. One of the best sites for tracking offensive efficiency is inpredictable.com, where possessions can be divided into: a) those following a defensive rebound; b) those following a turnover; c) and those following an opponent's made basket. These splits can provide a fairly good idea of how well a team scores in the half court, since possessions following a made basket are usually against a set defense.

The Warriors have the NBA's best overall ORTG. They score a scorching 1.3 points per possession (PPP) following opponent turnovers, and a league-topping 1.2 PPP following defensive rebounds. However, their 1.07 PPP on plays following opposing made baskets is only—ahem—good for No. 7, and ranks slightly behind Cleveland.

In other words, Golden State is transcendent and unstoppable in the open court, but just pretty good otherwise.

During the last two NBA Finals, the Cavs have done a remarkable job of slowing games down to a crawl and making them half court grinds. Equally as important? Cleveland has an excellent half court defense, despite owning the league's No. 14 DRTG. On possessions following a made shot, the Cavs have the NBA's third-stingiest defense, allowing just .98 PPP.

The Cavs certainly won't score every time on offense but that stat isn't just about possessions following a make. It points to Cleveland being able to defend very well once it prevents fast break—which will be the team's top focus in a Finals rubber match.

James is still the league's best player, and the most important player in a Cavs-Warriors re-rematch. But Irving might be the super weapon that Golden State simply doesn't have an answer for. Irving went off in the last three games of the 2016 Finals, and nailed what was arguably the title-winning three-pointer late in the fourth quarter of an epic Game 7. He also went off on Christmas Day, scoring 25 points, 14 of those in the fourth.

Irving doesn't always make the best decisions. Too often, he attacks one-on-one in situations that aren't set up for him to exploit the Warriors' weaknesses. For the Cavs, the key is to get Golden State's best help defenders either guarding Irving on an island, or so far removed from the action that they can't help on his drives to the hoop. That's what worked following Game 4 of last year's Finals.

Irving is especially good at attacking Green in isolation, something most players are afraid to even attempt. In the clips below, watch how Green is too slow to contain Irving off the dribble, and how the Warriors struggle to help protect the rim when Green is forced to guard the ball:

This season, Irving has become a more efficient isolation scorer, upping his points per game out of isolation from 2.7 to 5.3 while increasing his efficiency from .95 PPP to 1.18 PPP. Part of this is certainly due to bolstered confidence and ongoing maturity—he's only 24 years old, and still approaching his prime. But some credit should also go to the Cavs' improved chemistry, and a better understanding of the subtle things that make them difficult to defend.

Last season, Cleveland learned how to place defenses at a disadvantage before attacking, whether by hiding help side defenders as far away from the action as possible, or placing rebounders in position to make the defense pay for over-helping. Love in particular has found a nice balance between spacing out on the perimeter and crashing the offensive glass, and is now averaging more rebounds per 100 possessions than either of his previous two seasons in Cleveland while maintaining a higher three-point attempt rate than any season he was in Minnesota.

The Cavs aren't perfect. The Warriors have plenty of time to address their (relative) weaknesses. No one knows what Durant will do in a playoff series alongside his new super teammates, and Golden State figures to have home court advantage for a third straight postseason. As such, oddsmakers likely will once again favor the Warriors in a Finals redux.

That said, Cleveland appears more comfortable than at any other point since James returned, and might be perfectly designed to take down this particular Golden State squad. James hasn't slowed down as much as one would expect for a player with as many miles and big playoff games on his odometer; Irving keeps getting deadlier; Love has found his place; and Korver adds another dangerous tool to a box already containing useful veterans like Channing Frye and Richard Oh My God He's Still Dunking Jefferson.

The Warriors have gotten most of the headlines and hype, but the Cavs look as ready as ever to foil their rival.

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