Division Swing Factors: AFC

It's important, when discussing NFL predictions, to couch things in terms of probability. Maybe this is the year Jay Cutler stops being a blockhead, executes the playbook, and throws for 5,000 yards. But, that's not likely to be the case. This is part one of a two-part series looking at the greatest opportunities for fluctuation in the established probabilities. First up, the AFC.

AFC East: Ryan Tannehill versus Himself

The Patriots are a dynasty and are unlikely to fall out of the playoff picture. But if they do, I think the greatest chance for upheaval comes in the form of a Ryan Tannehill breakout season.

As noted in my Andrew Luck piece earlier this month, quarterbacks sometimes take leaps of effectiveness not because of development, but because the supporting cast improves. Tannehill is in an ideal situation to improve. The Phins have surrounded him with talented receivers. General manager Dennis Hickey drafted DeVante Parker with the eleventh pick this year, and traded for Kenny Stills (931 reception yards last year) from the Saints. Jarvis Landry, a second round draft pick last year who had 84 receptions in his rookie season, is an excellent possession receiver. A healthy Jordan Cameron is one of the five most dangerous tight ends in the NFL.

Tannehill delivered a fairly decent opening performance against Washington. The Dolphins managed only 17 points after both a fourth-down stuff and fumble in Washington territory. Parker, who had foot surgery in June and saw limited action during the preseason, barely played.

The Dolphins do not yet have an established No. 1 receiver. What they do have is a slew of talented ones, and a guy in Parker who could become one. While I'm not sold on Tannehill as a passer—his deep ball troubles worry me—I do think he could have an excellent season with the right supporting cast. Think Andy Dalton, but, you know, better than Andy Dalton.

AFC North: Can Other Contenders Pounce on Suspended Steelers?

Look at the point total in Thursday's game against the Patriots. You'll come away thinking the Steelers were pretty pedestrian. But as far as raw yardage numbers, the Steelers played the game to a draw. If Josh Scobee hadn't shanked two field goals, they would've been able to attempt a two-point conversion to tie the game.

Ben Roethlisberger looked excellent. And he looked excellent without having two of the best four Pittsburgh offensive players on the field. Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant are both serving suspensions for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy, which basically reduced the Steelers offense to throwing bombs at known poor receivers like Darrius Heyward-Bey.

On paper, I think Pittsburgh has the best offense in the division and, thus, the best chance to win the division. But the Ravens or Bengals could take advantage of a possible slow start due to the suspensions, and build a lead that might be insurmountable. The Steelers were a different team with a healthy Bryant in the lineup last season. The other AFC North contenders need to put as much distance as possible between themselves and Pittsburgh before Bryant comes back after Week 4.

AFC South: Banking on Quarterback Breakouts

Jacksonville and Tennessee finished with the two worst records in the AFC last year. It may be impossible for either of them to match up to what the Colts already have this year. But, in a weak AFC South that finds itself with an easy out-of-conference slate, a good season by either Marcus Mariota or Blake Bortles might be enough to contend for a wildcard spot.

Of the two quarterbacks, I'm a bigger believer in Mariota, who was hyper-efficient in college. I think accuracy is the most important trait a quarterback can have. You can make bad empirical decisions that result in great plays with pinpoint accuracy. The statheads at Football Outsiders put together a projection system that has Mariota as the best college quarterback since 2012. The scouts have been more mixed, and more focused on Jameis Winston's ability to make NFL throws. Scouting is a projection game, so you can see how they came to that conclusion. I think the scouts weren't giving Mariota enough credit, and I expect at least an average rookie year from him.

Bortles has looked like a better player this preseason. He also looked great last preseason. You can take the tact that he was playing against No. 1 defenses this time around, and I'll accept that as legitimate criticism. I'm not going to believe he's resurrected his franchise quarterback status until I see him perform well in a regular-season game. (Jaguars fans did not like this assertion, so here's a place to go if you are one of them.)

Week 1's results fell into my paradigm nicely. Mariota exploded with a four-touchdown effort that went so well he sat out most of the fourth quarter. Bortles threw a pick-six, and the Jaguars continued to have trouble putting the ball in the end zone.

The most important thing either franchise can do this season is establish themselves with a real quarterback. But with a little luck and some good quarterback play, I could see either team passing the Texans and becoming a factor in the wild card race. After Week 1, of course, it sure looks more like it'll be Tennessee.

AFC West: The Kubiak Equation

How much you believe in the Denver Broncos this season comes down to two questions:

• Do you believe Peyton Manning has not regressed?
• Do you believe that Gary Kubiak will be changing the offense at all?

There are legitimate reasons to answer yes or no to both of those questions. I think velocity whores who believe Manning's arm strength has declined are overlooking the other factors that make him a great quarterback. That said, it is true that he lost a bit of velo down the stretch last year. Was it all the quadriceps injury suffered against the Chargers?

I could also see the Broncos shifting to a more run-focused attack under Kubiak. But right now, given the state of an offensive line down Ryan Clady, I'm worried about the effectiveness. Manning versus Kubiak is a fascinating clash of personalities. Whichever side wins out could have more to do with the offensive line and Manning's deep ball than the actual desires each brings to the table.

Week 1 left us with the answer "all of the above." Manning threw a pick-six. He also sailed a few deep balls that were open. The Denver offensive line struggled against Baltimore, which left Manning with the Matt Schaub Memorial screen pass booklet, and Denver needing their defense to step up to seal a win.

I expect the Denver defense to do enough to hold up their end of the bargain. But if Manning and Kubiak have problems co-existing, or Manning finally has hit the wall, it could open the door for the Chargers and Chiefs. The Broncos don't need to be the aerial show they were in 2013. They do need to be able to drop 24 points on a good day.