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What the Warriors Are Missing Without Andrew Bogut

Andrew Bogut brings beef and low-key guile to both ends of the floor for Golden State. With him out for the rest of the NBA Finals, the Dubs will be a very different team.
Photo by Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

This article is part of VICE Sports' 2016 NBA Playoffs coverage.

It feels morally wrong to type this. After all, just imagine how painful it would be to have J.R. Smith cannonball into your knee while you're airborne and defenseless. Whatever your impression of Andrew Bogut, the Golden State Warriors' most physical big man and one of the NBA's most accomplished (and/or trollish) interior defenders, the knee injury he sustained in Game 5 stinks. That is not the part that feels wrong, though. The part that feels wrong is this: in this series, Bogut's loss may well be Golden State's gain.

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Serious bone bruises will sideline Bogut for the rest of the NBA Finals. Given the way the series was shaping up, though, Bogut was likely to see plenty of the bench anyway. He has averaged 3.2 points (on 47.1 percent shooting) and 3.0 rebounds per game, and, despite Bogut's team-high ten blocks, the Warriors have been outscored by 25 points with him on the court.

Read More: LeBron and Kyrie Dominated the Warriors. Now the Cavs Need an Encore.

Bogut matters in ways we'll get into later, but, relative to the handful of Hall of Fame–bound phenoms with whom he shares the roster, the Aussie mostly contributes in the shadows. Golden State unlocked the best version of itself during last year's NBA Finals when they replaced Bogut with Andre Iguodala. That starting lineup matured into a small-ball powerhouse—the notorious Death Lineup—leveraging Draymond Green's inexhaustible versatility to mow down everything in their path.

A center in name only, Green switches ball screens, shoots threes, makes plays off the dribble, and reliably shuts down taller players who hopelessly try to teach him a lesson down low. It's futuristic basketball, and no team has figured out how to stop it.

Bogut can't do these things, which is something he has in common with every other center in the league. When the Warriors go small in this series, there's no one for the Cleveland Cavaliers to pick on. But when the Warriors are big, the Cavs love using Bogut's seven-foot frame to set a high screen for either Kyrie Irving or LeBron James, knowing full well that he won't switch or venture high to contest a jumper. When Bogut

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does

amble out too far, the Cavs have him right where they want him.

The Cavaliers attack Bogut this way every chance they get, until Steve Kerr counters with a substitution. According to NBAWowy, in the 83 minutes Golden State has gone small with Green at center in these Finals, they've scored 127 points per 100 possessions while holding Cleveland to 96.2 points per 100 possessions. It's no contest.

By contrast, in Bogut's 60 minutes of action, the Warriors' offense has been terrible; their defense isn't noticeably better whether he's on the floor or off it. Keep in mind that we're talking about an incredibly small sample size, and one that almost exclusively matches up against Cleveland's starting lineup; it also defies how well Golden State has performed all year on both ends with Bogut on the court. Forget the on/off splits for a second: the Warriors will feel his injury.

Against a Cavaliers team that has hauled in 30.8 percent of their own missed shots in the Finals—that would have ranked second in the NBA during the regular season—the Warriors can't afford to go small for 48 minutes. Kerr knows this, and it's partly why he didn't remove Bogut from his starting lineup after their blowout loss in Game 3.

Cleveland's offensive rebound rate is 32.5 percent with Bogut on the bench and 22.9 percent when he's on the floor—equivalent to a drop from first to 23rd in regular-season league rankings. Instead of leaning on small units, constantly switching and playing up-tempo, Kerr has instead deployed traditional groups that allow the team's small units to thrive in spurts as change-of-pace options. There's some risk to this, but it's a safe bet on balance, particularly with someone as skilled as Bogut in the lineup. Sure, the Cavaliers can "hide" one of their bigs on him and play the they prefer, but Bogut does do a great job of keeping guys like Tristan Thompson off the glass.

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Cleveland's defensive rebound rate throughout these playoffs is 78.6 percent, a top-five number both in the regular season and the playoffs. With Bogut on the court, that number drops to 70.7 percent, 1.9 percent lower than the 30th-ranked Houston Rockets. He's a load.

Unless Kerr is willing to play Green at center for 48 minutes—and he's not—Golden State is faced with some burdensome lineups decisions. The trickle-down effect is very real whenever a starter goes down. Here are Kerr's options for Games 6 (and 7, if it comes to that): Anderson Varejao, James Michael McAdoo, Marreese Speights, and Festus Ezeli.

These, you might have noticed, are bad options. Compared to Bogut, none of them can protect the rim, set screens, and crash the glass while intuitively executing Golden State's offense. Bogut knows his role and gives the opposing defense something else to worry about. Few big men rival his awareness and vision:

His absence puts pressure on Golden State's roster and raises questions Kerr and his staff would rather not answer. Which bigs can they turn to with confidence? What if Green gets in foul trouble? How much will Bogut's rim protection be missed against a team that will attack the paint as much as possible, knowing they're up against a thin frontline?

When the story of this Warriors era is told, Bogut might (unfairly) go down as an afterthought. The former No. 1 overall pick isn't universally recognized as one of his team's five best or most important players, and he's a lot less fun to watch than his quicksilver peers. But he's a perfect fit with what the Warriors are doing, a seven-foot wall of intimidation who frees shooters with screens and provides necessary toughness around the margins. He's Cersei's Mountain, in other words: a bodyguard presence who allows Golden State to plant its flag on the court's most valuable areas.

The Warriors should still be favored to win the series. They are inarguably better against Cleveland with Green at center, but how sustainable will that success be now that it's not a devastating counterpunch but option No. 1? The Warriors have to hope they know the answer.

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