Head pats all around. Photo by Greg Bartram—USA TODAY Sports
Rivalry week tends to help sort out the College Football Playoff picture, and with No. 2 Ohio State beating out No. 3 Michigan 30-27 in a thrilling double-overtime victory, we have a better idea of how the Playoffs look with a week and a half left. Here's the picture as it stands.Alabama (11-0)Alabama is in the best shape of anyone, as the only undefeated major conference team left. The Crimson Tide could probably even lose one of their final two against Auburn and Florida and still make the Playoff. For now, it's probably just best to assume Alabama is in.Clemson (10-1)Clemson hasn't looked great this year, but the Tigers have wins over Louisville and Auburn that will keep them safe as long as they win out against South Carolina and Virginia Tech. Lose one of those two and they might be out.Ohio State (11-1)Ohio State won't make the Big Ten title game unless Michigan State beats Penn State, but even if the Buckeyes don't make the title game, they're likely in. They have three wins over top eight teams (Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State) and only one loss.Washington (11-1)Washington hasn't been favored by the selection committee this year, leaving some to speculate that the Huskies would be jumped by a second Big Ten team. However, with a great win over Washington State and an additional win over Colorado or USC, the Huskies are almost sure to get in.Penn State (9-2)Penn State has a win over Ohio State and could add a great win by beating Wisconsin, but the Nittany Lions aren't likely to jump the Buckeyes based on their full body of work. It's also unlikely that they jump 12-1 Washington, which is already ahead of PSU and would add better wins. The Nittany Lions would also have to hope Michigan doesn't stay in front of them. One of those three Big Ten teams get in if Washington loses.Wisconsin (9-2)Wisconsin is in the same place as Penn State, essentially.Michigan (10-2)The Wolverines won't play for a Big Ten title, but they do have wins over both Penn State and Wisconsin. The Wolverines have a legitimate claim to a Playoff bid without a Big Ten title.
Teams in by winning out:
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Teams that need chaos on their side:
Playoff projections barring upsets:
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Ohio State
- Washington
Playoff projections with chaos (particularly Washington losing):
- Alabama
- Clemson
- Ohio State
- Wisconsin/Penn State/Michigan