Stan Wawrinka, the Biggest Threat to Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open

There was no way Novak Djokovic was going to lose the French Open final last year. He'd won three consecutive grand slams, and the title at Roland Garros was the only one missing from his prestigious trophy case. The other three members of the "Big Four" (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Andy Murray) had all been dispatched before the final. Surely this was Djokovic's tournament. Only Stan Wawrinka—the No. 8 seed, a man older than him, with less grand-slam experience and only one grand-slam title—stood in Djokovic's way.

Despite being older than Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray, Wawrinka, 30, does not act his age. He wears a "Stan The Man" t-shirt to every press conference and often plays in shorts that would look more appropriate on a beach than on a tennis court. He says preposterous things, especially by tennis standards. He responds to fans on Twitter and Instagram. And yet acting young off the court doesn't make you young on it. Surely he couldn't overcome the world No. 1 in what many argued was the biggest match of Djokovic's year.

Yet three hours and 12 minutes later, Wawrinka was the one lifting the trophy after a four-set stunner. He was the one replacing Nadal—who had won an astounding nine French Open titles from 2005 to 2014—in the winner's circle, just has he has replaced Nadal in the men's top four. Stan Wawrinka, the prohibitive underdog in that French Open final match against Djokovic, enters the 2016 as a top four player, even if few seem willing to acknowledge it.

The headlines leading into this year's Australian Open were about whether Nadal could be elite again, whether Murray could banish the jinx that has caused him to lose four Australian Open finals, or if Federer has an 18th title in him. But nobody is really talking about whether Wawrinka could win a second Australian Open title. That's not headline material. How about the fact that Wawrinka is the biggest threat to Djokovic this fortnight? Good luck finding that one.

Admittedly, Wawrinka would be an unusual headliner. He played in 36 grand slams before finally making it to a semi-final, and he's only 17-61 against the Big Four.

But a different picture emerges in the last two seasons. Wawrinka is 3-2 against Nadal since 2014, and he defeated Murray in their only meeting those two seasons (as well as beating him twice in 2013). He is 2-4 against Djokovic, including two wins in grand-slams. Federer remains his biggest foe. The 17-time grand slam champion had a 5-2 record against Wawrinka in '14-'15, and Wawrinka has never defeated Federer on hard courts.

Overall, that's an 8-11 record against the Big Four, which is more indicative of where Wawrinka ranks entering 2016. Additionally, he was the only player to beat Djokovic in a grand slam last year, and his two grand slam titles in the past two years are more than Nadal, Murray, and Federer combined.

Much of that success has been attributed to a coaching change Wawrinka made two years ago. Since working with Magnus Norman, Wawrinka has made it to the semi-finals of five of the last nine majors. He was the oldest man to win the French Open in 25 years. Perhaps it took him longer because he was in the direct shadow of his countryman, Federer. Perhaps he just needed to mature, or to settle into his lack of maturity. "When Stan plays his best tennis, everyone has to fasten their seat belt," Mats Wilander told Eurosport in January. "When he plays well, for me he is the most exciting player in the world."

The paths he took to his two grand slam titles prove he is no fluke. In Australia in 2014, he defeated Djokovic in the semis and Nadal in the final. At Roland Garros last year, he took on Federer in the quarterfinals and Djokovic in that astounding final. He is not Marin Cilic facing Kei Nishikori at the U.S. Open final. He's beaten the best and now deserves to be considered among them.

"Novak deserves like a little star next to his name right now because he's been doing extremely well. Same for Stan, really," Federer said in a pre-tournament press conference. "Hasn't been said, he's won slams the last couple seasons and he's going into a third season where he's maybe going to win a slam."

It's hard to consider anyone a threat to Djokovic's No. 1 ranking, but Wawrinka may be the likeliest choice as the Australian Open kicks off this week. Yet even Norman is hesitant to place Wawrinka in the top echelon. "Now we have to calm down a bit… He has got the game, but he is still not as consistent as the top-four guys… This was one win, but the year is long. He has more to prove to be able to be a contender," Norman told The Guardian after the Roland Garros win.

"If he wants to break into the top four and to do well, he has to be more consistent, week in, week out," Norman added.

Wawrinka found that consistency in the second half of last season. He advanced to the U.S. Open semi-finals and enters the 2016 Australian Open on the heels of a third-straight ATP title at Chennai.

"I'm happy the way I'm playing so far. I'm confident with my game," he said in a pre-tournament press conference.

Wawrinka's quest starts Tuesday against 265th-ranked Dmitry Tursunov of Russia. If the draw plays out according to seeds, Wawrinka will face Nadal in the quarterfinals and Murray—the Big Four player against whom Wawrinka has had the most success—in the semi-final. Should he get past those two, he could meet Federer or Djokovic in the final.

Anyone's first grand-slam title can be called a fluke, especially when the opponent is admittedly injured, as Nadal was in 2014. Winning a second title, against a healthy world No. 1 player makes it a bit harder to push Wawrinka out of the top tier. Should he reach the final at the end of this Australian Open fortnight, Stan the Man will have made his statement: This one is the real deal.