Make or Break: The Last-chance Saloon of the Senior Loan

During this summer transfer window, we've seen more senior loan deals than ever before. The economics of the Premier League dictate that, for the majority of 'buying' clubs, permanent transfers are harder than ever. The onset of a £5bn television deal at the start of the season has not only caused a massive hyperinflation of transfer fees, it has also led to increased wage demands, meaning that clubs are less and less keen to risk significant amounts of their capital on long-term deals. Senior loans are par for the course at this point, and the loan system is now being used (and perhaps abused) in a very different fashion to that which it was intended for.

So, this summer, we have seen Juan Cuadrado move from Chelsea to Juventus on a highly unusual three-year loan. This is not a development issue; Juventus clearly want to acquire the player, Chelsea to shift him, and yet they still cannot organise a permanent deal. It appears that Juventus, despite wanting Cuadrado, are unwilling to commit to a proper transfer. There are parallels to the loan deals for Samir Nasri and Eliaquim Mangala. A few years ago, their moves from Manchester City to Valencia would have probably been permanent. Now, the acquiring club seems unwilling to shoulder the joint burden of a transfer fee and a hefty wage packet.

Perhaps the most high-profile loan of this kind has been that of Joe Hart to Torino. Pep Guardiola has made it infinitely clear that Hart is not in his plans, yet City have still not managed to sever ties. Guardiola does not want Hart, and has actively moved to replace him, yet he is still very much a Manchester City player. A mid-table Serie A club like Torino was never going to be able to afford both his wages and the requisite transfer fee, and so he's been shipped out on what is, at least on the surface, a temporary deal.

Despite the fact that clubs would – the wage situation allowing – most likely prefer to make these deals conclusive and final, the impermanence of them gives each move an air of potential redemption. Should a player on a senior loan have the season of a lifetime, it's always possible that their parent club could change their tune. Were Joe Hart to prove himself the best sweeper keeper in Europe this season, Guardiola might decide that he had a place at City after all. Even Cuadrado, on his three-year loan, could be recalled if he scored 40 goals over the next few months. It would take an eye-watering loan cancellation fee, of course, but it would probably be less than Chelsea paid to buy Nemanja Matic back from Benfica.

In that sense, the senior loan (in lieu of a transfer) cuts both ways. The 'selling' club can't shift their unwanted asset, and may still have to pay some of his wages, but the 'buying' club has far less security when it comes to profiting from resurgent form. The 'buying' club doesn't have to commit their capital to a long-term deal, but nor are they likely to gain much capital if the asset goes on to increase in value. That leaves it up to the player to decide exactly who's done the better deal.

For most senior players on temporary deals, the loan system represents the last-chance saloon. They can either write a tale of redemption, or vindicate the club that has shipped them out. The best case scenario is that they play so well that their parent club has a change of heart, and decides to reintegrate them into the squad. The worst is that they play so poorly that their loan club doesn't want to extend their stay, leaving them stuck in a sort of purgatory, unwanted by their parent club and potential buyers alike.

It's difficult to say which of these outcomes Joe Hart will experience. Torino have made a good start to the season but, come May, will probably end up somewhere in the mid table. Whether that sort of campaign will give Hart the chance to shine in goal or leave him picking the ball out of his own net with demoralising regularity, we're yet to see. The Torino move is so left-field that it could turn out to be a stroke of genius, a unique experiment or a bizarre and unmitigated disaster.

For a player like Jack Wilshere, the senior loan means something subtly different. It could still be make or break for him, but his situation is distinct from Hart's. While Manchester City's endgame is, as it stands, to part ways with their long-serving goalkeeper, Arsenal are not quite ready to jettison Wilshere. His loan move to Bournemouth is born of incessant injuries, with the hope that a season of regular football can see him return to form and reclaim his place at his parent club.

In one sense, this lessens the pressure on Wilshere. There is an open door for him at Arsenal, as opposed to the existential limbo which confronts many players on senior loan. He does, however, have to prove his fitness, or he could end up in similarly difficult circumstances. Should he spend most of the coming campaign in Bournemouth's treatment room, it might signal the end of his long-term future in North London.

For senior players sent on loan this summer, life is at a crossroads. They can either succeed away from home, or compound the problems which saw them loaned out in the first place. Manage the former, and they could still have a chance with their parent clubs, or at least a decent opportunity elsewhere. Stumble towards the latter, and their careers could end up on a downward trajectory from which there is no escape.

@W_F_Magee