NHL Christmas Playoff Reality Check

You've probably heard people say that if NHL teams aren't in a postseason spot at Thanksgiving, they likely aren't going to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That's just crazy talk. The season isn't even two months old at that point. There's no need to panic over turkey.

But if you're not in a top eight (or top three, or top two after the top three in this wild-card system) at Christmas, you're probably screwed. Start panicking. Don't even buy Christmas gifts.

Last season, 14 of 16 teams in playoff position on Dec. 25 reached the postseason. The year before that, it was 13 of 16 with one of those teams being the Ottawa Senators, who had to finish 22-4-2 just to get a wild-card spot. If you're not in now, there's a very good chance that won't change by April.

But it could! There are always a couple teams that turn it around. But who are they? Who will be this season's darlings that turn a bad one-third of a season into one to remember?

Using very scientific measures and high level mathematics, I was able to break down every non-playoff team's chances of climbing into a playoff spot. The points next to each team is how many they were out of a playoff spot as of December 19.

14. Colorado Avalanche (11 points)

13. Arizona Coyotes (7 points)

12. New York Islanders (13 points)

One team is bad and had its coach quit on them right before the season (Avs), another team is bad and in the midst of a not-so-secret tank (Coyotes), and the other is bad and playing in the NHL's best division (Islanders).

It's tough to say who has it worse. The Coyotes aren't even trying, but they should've tanked either last year (Matthews/Laine) or the year before (McDavid/Eichel). The Islanders are doing this one season after their first postseason series victory since the Bill Clinton administration. The Avalanche have a very good corps of youngsters, so tanking the rest of the way seems out of the question.

The Avs are flat-out hopeless; the Coyotes are in the Pacific, so they could luck their way to a playoff spot if about 15 things break their way, and the Islanders would have to go about 34-17-0 the rest of the way to get to 96 points, which may not even be enough to get a playoff spot in the East.

To paraphrase the great Margaret Whitton in the movie Major League, cross them off then.

11. Vancouver Canucks (6 points)

Look, I get it. You know the Canucks are a smoldering landfill of hamster feces. I know the Canucks are a smoldering landfill of hamster feces. But do the Canucks know this? Clearly, they do not.

The Canucks have what psychologists call Oblivious Confidence, a term that I didn't just make up to explain when a person has no right to feel good about themselves yet don't recognize all their flaws. Imagine going to a job interview to be Secretary of Defense, and your only experience is kicking ass at that war game Arnold Schwarzenegger sells. And, you feel like you're getting the job because you deserve it. That's the Canucks, only Donald Trump isn't deciding playoff teams.

So when your division is this bad and you don't want to rebuild, the door is open to luck into the postseason. You want to write off the Canucks, but they only need to make up five points on the Calgary Flames in four months. No one is so bad that you can totally rule that out with this much time left.

10. New Jersey Devils (10 points)

The playoff setup is murdering mediocre teams in the East. When the Devils woke up Wednesday, they were 10 points behind the Philadelphia Flyers for the final wild-card spot. A double-digit deficit this deep into the season is almost always insurmountable even if you're a good team, never mind one that plays Kyle Quincey 18 minutes a night.

But look at the Devils in relation to the Boston Bruins, the owners of the third and final playoff spot in the Atlantic. The Devils are six points back of the Bruins, the true eighth-best team in the East, with two games in hand. In a fair world, the Devils have a real chance at closing ground on the No. 8 seed. Instead, because the NHL finds new and exotic ways of doing dumb things, the Devils need a small collapse from someone in their division to earn a wild-card berth.

9. Carolina Hurricanes (8 points)

The Hurricanes are the ideal version of the Devils. They're decent, not great, but they're good enough at 5-on-5 that if they get some saves from Cam Ward … ah, forget it. If the Devils loaned the Hurricanes Cory Schneider, they could make a serious run at one of the wild-card spots.

But again, the Metro is a nightmare that not even the NHL's points system can make look good. Carolina would be better off tanking, but much like the Islanders and the Avalanche, they're not in a position to do so.

8. Buffalo Sabres (6 points)

7. Detroit Red Wings (5 points)

6. Toronto Maple Leafs (6 points)

5. Florida Panthers (4 points)

"God bless the Atlantic Division." — Dan Bylsma, Jeff Blashill, Mike Babcock and Tom Rowe, first thing every morning, simultaneously, over FaceTime, because they're all besties

The Hurricanes, Devils and Islanders are mostly or entirely dead because of their division, but these four teams of similar statures are the opposite, very much alive for a playoff spot in the very weak Atlantic. These teams are all technically chasing the Bruins, but the overachieving Senators are only two points ahead of Boston, so the division is wide-open (that is, bad).

These teams have a lot in common: OK goaltending, relatively new coaches, a lot of young talent with the potential to take off at any time, and an undying love for the new playoff format. Each of these teams, despite their deficiencies, can rip off five wins in a row at any time and find themselves in the playoffs.

Of course, bad teams don't really rip off five straight wins, so a hot streak would make them pretty good. It's a bit of a paradox.

Right now, 92 points will be enough for the third team out of the Atlantic. It won't take much for all these teams that are on about 84-point paces to bump themselves to that level.

4. Winnipeg Jets (1 point)

Even in 2014-15 when Ondrej Pavelec had his one good season, you knew he was the weak link. But when things went sideways in Winnipeg, it was almost entirely his fault. That's what having a .907 save percentage and playing 50-plus games per year will do.

But a funny thing happened after the Jets banished Pavelec to the AHL before the season: the goaltending remained bad.

Connor Hellebuyck (21 games, .911) and Michael Hutchinson (13 games, .896) have combined to have a very Pavelec-ian season. So while the Jets are on the fringe of the playoffs now, it's not as though you can point to the new goaltending and say, "Don't worry, it will be fine."

But you can say, "It may not be worse down the stretch." Pavelec was consistently bad, but he was worse when it came time for a playoff push. In 146 career games in February, March and April, Pavelec has a .905 save percentage. Can Hellebuyck/Hutchinson match that? Sure. But they're new at their jobs, so there's reason to hope they won't be Pavelec-ian in the second half too.

3. Dallas Stars (2 points)

2. Nashville Predators (3 points)

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (4 points)

Each team has one major flaw that seems correctable over the final 50 or so games.

You probably think Dallas' problem is goaltending, but not so fast—it's health. Yeah, Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi are screwing the Stars most nights, but the team had so many injuries over the first 30 games that their current place in the standings reflects a lack of health more than a lack of saves. In their past nine games, they're just 4-5-0, but they've held teams to 30 or fewer shots five times. If they keep that up, they've got a good chance to make headway in the second half.

Nashville can't score, which is incredible. After seemingly working out of a two-month funk, they've won only two games this month. Pekka Rinne (.916) playing average hockey is a problem, but even with average goaltending, the Preds' offense should be handling things. But Filip Forsberg (3 goals), Ryan Johansen (6 goals) and Craig Smith (6 goals) are all barreling toward their worst offensive seasons. All three are too talented to all go in the tank for 82 games.

As for Tampa Bay, God, just hang on until Steven Stamkos comes back. You did it last year. Oh, and get some more saves from Ben Bishop. And man, was that 2014-15 season a fluke for Tyler Johnson? What's up with Ondrej Palat? Is that Ryan Callahan contract a killer or what? And gee whiz, can someone trade this team a defenseman?

OK, so it's more than one flaw for Tampa. But you just know that they'll find a way in that division, even if they finish third and with six fewer points than the Hurricanes and Devils.

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