Betting on the NHL Playoff Longshots

A good gambler seeks value. It's not about putting money on something in an effort to feel alive when you're dead inside; it's about identifying a trend that no one else has spotted and making a few bucks off it. It's not unlike the stock market, only there's way more alcohol and jerseys on a sportsbook floor.

Anyone can tell you to put your money on the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins or Chicago Blackhawks, three favorites to win the Stanley Cup, according to Vegas Insider. The payoff is weak, and backing the favorites is boring.

What's the point of winning a bet if it isn't big or worth bragging about for years?

That's where this list comes in. Nobody wants to hear how you bet 50 bucks on a 13/2 favorite; you want to tweet a picture of a betting slip from January that shows you were all over a longshot that won the Cup in June. That's how you get the RTs, my friends.

So here are five teams that probably won't win the Stanley Cup, but have enough of a chance where it's worth throwing a few bucks on them (if you happen to live in a state where gambling is legal). Sprinkle a few bucks on all these teams and cheer for underdogs the rest of the way.

Current odds: 100/1

Why this is ridiculous: Well, it's the Sabres. They're potentially the worst team in the league that's not the Coyotes or Avalanche. They haven't been to the playoffs since 2011, and teams don't go from also-rans for a half-decade to champions overnight. They haven't won three games in a row all season, which doesn't bode well for a) making the playoffs and b) winning four out of seven in the playoffs against four opponents.

Why this can happen: Let's start with Jack Eichel. Since returning from a preseason leg injury Nov. 29, the Sabres are 12-9-4, a 92-point pace that isn't quite playoff-worthy but it's not far off. Robin Lehner has a .921 save percentage this season, which is plenty good enough to get a team to the playoffs and make a run. The Sabres are five points out of a playoff spot with half the season remaining and games in hand. Reaching the postseason is not as nutty as you think.

Winning 16 postseason games? Look at the odds. Of course it's nearly impossible. But if they can finish third in the Atlantic, that means they can avoid the carnage in the stacked Metropolitan for two rounds and face Montreal and Ottawa to get to the conference finals. The Sabres have split two meetings with the Habs and taken two of three from the Senators. Sure, the regular season means nothing in the postseason, but if you want to talk yourself into a $20 bet that can win you $2,000, that helps.

Current odds: 30/1

Why this is ridiculous: By the time Steven Stamkos returns for a playoff push, it may be too late. They have won two games in January and have sunk to the bottom of the East. Neither Ben Bishop (.905) nor Andrei Vasilevskiy (.907) are playing well. They are a middling score-adjust possession team (49.7 percent) and probably will be just that for the rest of the season. To win the Cup, a team has to make the playoffs, and that seems less like a guarantee with each passing loss.

Why this can happen: At this point, you're betting on faith and past performance, and that's never a good idea. Bishop and Vasilevskiy can turn their games around. Many of the non-Stamkos injuries that hampered the Lightning during the first half are no longer an issue. And just like the Sabres, the Lightning play in a weak division and are one hot streak away from climbing into a playoff spot.

At this juncture, the bigger risk is betting on the Lightning just to make the playoffs. But if they get there, they have just as good a chance as anyone to win the Cup.

Current odds: 25/1

Why this is ridiculous: Maybe ridiculous is the wrong word, but here's a team that hasn't looked anywhere as good as last year's incarnation, and that team couldn't get past the second round. So if you drop money on the Predators now, you're betting on them matching preseason expectations despite what your eyes have told you through 40-plus games. They've been as inconsistent as Rogue One, so think of a bet on the Predators as a bet that the final 15 minutes of their season will be the best part.

Why this can happen: The West is not what it was last year. Even with their up-and-down first half, they are a playoff team with 35 games to play. When everyone is clicking, they have the best defense in hockey. They are trending upward possession-wise. If you liked their roster in the preseason when they had 16/1 odds, you should love the fact that Vegas is sleeping on the Predators in January.

Current odds: 25/1

Why this is ridiculous: Much like the Lightning, the Kings have a key injured player (Jonathan Quick) who may not return in time to propel the team into a playoff spot. They have games in hand, but looking up at the Vancouver Canucks this late in the season isn't a good sign. And really, the Kings' problem this season hasn't been defense; they are in the bottom-third of the league in goal scoring. With the Blue Jackets headed to the playoffs, the Kings won't be able to fleece them for scoring help at the trade deadline.

Why this can happen: The Kings rank first in score-adjusted Fenwick. This is a very good sign that goals will eventually come (although this never happened when they missed the playoffs in 2014-15 despite crushing teams in shot attempts) and if they get Quick back, everything could synch for a two-month run of greatness. Even without Quick, the Kings are a top-5 defensive team. So if the Kings can find a few more goals over the final three months, they could hit the postseason firing on all cylinders. There's nothing wrong with betting pedigree when the odds are this long.

Current odds: 17/2

Why this is ridiculous: It's not. They have the sixth-best odds to win the Cup and sixth-best record in the NHL. Maybe it's ridiculous from the standpoint of picking a Canadian franchise to win America's C…sorry, the Stanley Cup, but that's about it.

Why this can happen: Getting nearly nine times your money back on a winning bet isn't crazy value, but it is with the Canadiens. Why? Because barring something crazy, they are going to reach the conference finals. They will have to take four of seven from two of the following teams: Boston, Toronto, Ottawa and maybe a wild-card team from the Metro. It's not quite a two-round bye, but it's pretty good.

With any bet, you want to put yourself in the best possible position. Nothing is for sure, but the Habs have the sixth-best odds when they have a very good chance of being a final four team. There's your value. It's possible the Habs' chances come down to Carey Price having to outplay Matt Murray and Corey Crawford. I like those chances. Unlike in years past when the Habs needed Price to carry them, they rank third in score-adjusted Fenwick.

And if the Habs add a top-four defenseman at the deadline — there are rumors that they could land Kevin Shattenkirk from the Blues — you will long for the time when you could have gotten the Habs at such great odds.

Dave Lozo's new book THE 100 GREATEST PLAYERS IN NHL HISTORY (AND OTHER STUFF), written with Greg Wyshynski and Sean McIndoe, is available on Amazon, iTunes and other places people by e-books online.