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Portland's Future is Way Brighter Than You Think

The Blazers might have been dominated by the Warriors in the first round, but they could soon be making a leap.
Craig Mitchelldyer-USA TODAY Sports

There's no shame in getting swept by one of the most dominant basketball teams in history during a first-round playoff series, even if you are outscored by 72 points over four games. The Golden State Warriors are currently treating the NBA to one choke slam after another, and on Monday night the Portland Trail Blazers met the canvas.

And that's okay. It's okay because they aren't alone, but it's also okay because, oddly enough, Portland heads into the summer with real reason for optimism about its future. After entering the season with major fit-related question marks and an ungodly payroll, that counts as success.

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No, the Blazers still don't have any cap space. No, they don't have a lottery pick. Sure, they finished the 2016-17 season 41-41 with a 0.0 net rating, just one season after they gave that same Warriors team (minus Kevin Durant and a healthy Steph Curry) all they could handle in the second round. But Portland's roster is filled with talented young players still several years away from their prime. They have a core and a culture most organizations envy. Their owner is a 64-year-old billionaire who isn't shy about spending money and their general manager is one of the NBA's most resourceful at his position.

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The Blazers are not like other organizations, in short, but the ways in which they're weird generally work to their advantage. They're a small-market club that doesn't always play the part, and are sneakily in a fantastic spot to make a significant leap sometime over the next few years. It might not be long, either, as only two teams had a higher winning percentage after the All-Star break. Portland went 18-8 down the stretch of a playoff race by using a top-10 defense to choke off opposing three-point shooters, then going bananas on the other end with a top-five offense. They finished 23-24 in clutch games (games where the scoring margin is five points or fewer with under five minutes to go) despite outscoring opponents by 4.4 points per 100 possessions in that time.

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Before we get to the trade that saved their season, or the free agent signings that struggled early but ultimately adapted fairly well as the season progressed, let's start with a close look at the team's dual pillars, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.

Offensively, it's hard to ask a backcourt to provide more than this duo does. Basketball fans/viewers/students have been obnoxiously spoiled by the Splash Brothers' bounty in recent years, but McCollum and Lillard should not be taken for granted. They're both perfect fits in this era, off-the-bounce creators who take and make extremely difficult shots on a regular basis. They're also both seemingly still getting better.

Neither made the All-Star team this year, but their absences owe more to the wealth of talent at their position than any indictment of their own flaws. Coming off a season in which he was named the NBA's Most Improved Player, McCollum once again found a way to get even better in every facet. Among all players who launched at least 400 mid-range jumpers, none were more accurate than McCollum, who shot a totally ridiculous 47.7 percent.

When you hear the nice things they say about you, on line. Photo by Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports

Furthermore, among all players who attempted at least 300 above-the-break threes, nobody topped McCollum's 42.9 percent. He's unstoppable driving left, a predatory jackrabbit with a knack for pulling up when his defender is off balance. His fadeaway is pure death, and his effective field goal percentage on pull-up shots was above 50 percent, which is elite.

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Take it all together and McCollum was one of the best offensive players in the league all year. Lillard, like his backcourt partner, also saw incremental improvement across the board in his fifth season. The two-time All-Star averaged 27 points per game with the highest PER, True Shooting percentage, and free-throw rate of his career. His jab step still singes eyebrows and the reputation of his range is only eclipsed by Curry.

A skeptic can look at all that justified praise and shrug, and with reason. A) So, defense?, B) If these two were so good why did Portland regress and barely make the playoffs? Both fair points, and we'll address the former in a second, but it doesn't take a humongous leap of faith to see how Portland's future with this tandem can be much brighter than its present, assuming they continue to evolve.

Here's what McCollum said earlier this year about why the Blazers should be even better down the line than they are right now: "We're continuing to learn, since this is just our second full season starting alongside each other. I think we still have a lot of room to grow. I'm only 25 and Damian is only 26, so we haven't hit our prime yet in terms of mental and physical strength and being able to slow the game down more as you're seeing from some of the stars around the league who are in the 28-to-29 age range. I think we can get better all around; you're never a finished product. The ceiling is definitely very high."

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He's not wrong, and notable examples are starting to pile up: Isaiah Thomas and Curry both made historic jumps in the latter half of their 20s, while 31-year-old Chris Paul just unleashed the most efficient season of his Hall of Fame career. There's a chance one of the Blazers' indispensable duo plateaus, but it seems just as likely that both can continue upgrading their areas of weakness and sharpening the tools that already give defenses migraines.

But about those areas of weakness: there is the question of whether either McCollum or Lillard will ever be able to contribute much on defense. Neither is good on that side of the ball at the moment, which means both are liabilities in a seven-game series. Worse, it's hard to see how they, as individuals, can fix the issue. But there are ways that their team can mask and mitigate it, be it with a sufficiently electric offense or a supporting cast loaded with two-way competence.

Portland's fatal flaw over the past couple seasons has been in the middle, where Mason Plumlee simply was not the physically imposing anchor the defense needed. For all the help he offered on offense, Plumlee also couldn't control the glass for heavy minutes over an 82-game season, let alone a lengthy playoff run.

On the whole, the Trail Blazers did a great job limiting opponent layups, dunks, and three-point shots—all areas where offenses most want to attack. Few teams were more consistent in forcing inefficient mid-range looks. Still, they fouled a ton, weren't interested in forcing turnovers, and got burned by the three-point attempts they did allow. Some of this was just bad luck. Some of it was due to having sickly perimeter defenders on the floor at all times.

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Evan Turner was asked to do too much for the Blazers this year. Photo: Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports.

Enter Jusuf Nurkic. There are multiple reasons to be bullish on Portland's future, but their newly acquired mastodon in the middle is by far the most exciting. The 22-year-old averaged an efficient 18.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per 36 minutes after joining the team around midseason. He fortified the defense and complemented Portland's ball-handlers and furious weakside action splendidly with some of the firmest picks in the league. It wasn't all muscle, either. Tristan Thompson, Rudy Gobert, and Cody Zeller were the only players in the league who averaged more screen assists per game after the All-Star break, per NBA.com.

Fit matters, and for as awkward as Evan Turner looked this year beside the two franchise pillars, Nurkic looked for all the world like an immaculate companion for McCollum and Lillard. In the 419 minutes the trio shared the floor, Portland outscored opponents by 11.3 points per 100 possessions, with an offense that scored more efficiently than the Warriors.

That's all good news, but even better are the options GM Neil Olshey has this summer. Again, the Blazers are way above the cap and may pay the luxury tax next year. But in an era where player movement has become a constant, there's a real benefit to growing together. If Olshey decides a few guys aren't working out, trading players like Allen Crabbe, Al-Farouq Aminu, or Mo Harkless won't be difficult; all are well-paid, but about equally well-regarded. Even Turner, who was asked to create a little too much for himself in year one, may have a market going forward. But if not, at least those guys are valuable defensively.

If everyone stays put, next year will be smoother than this one was. That's the benefit Portland enjoys thanks to a roster, coaching staff, system, front office, and owner that are all on the same page and securely strapped in for the long haul.

Olshey also has the 15th, 20th, and 26th overall picks in this year's draft. It'll be interesting to see if he can move up by packaging them with a decent rotational player, or directly use all three to find the kind of players that can contribute right away and help Portland reload instead of rebuild. There are currently three open roster spots for next season, so there's no real pressure to move the picks.

The last couple weeks have been trying times for the Blazers organization, and Monday night was brutal. The next few years will be anything but.