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Down Goes Brown's Weekend Review: Lightning Drama, Habs Lurking and Jets Need a Miracle

Both the Lightning and Jets—two teams going in opposite directions—have tough decisions to make as the trade deadline nears.
Photo by Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

This article originally appeared on VICE Sports Canada.

(Editor's note: Sean McIndoe looks back at recent play in the NHL and the league's biggest storylines in his weekend review. You can follow him on Twitter.)

Faceoff: Lightning rods of controversy

If you were going purely by the off-ice headlines, you could be forgiven for assuming the Lightning were a franchise in disarray. These days, it seems as if the only weeks that don't bring a new crisis in Tampa are the ones that bring an escalation of an existing one instead.

Start with the ongoing Steven Stamkos saga, which continues to drag on with little evidence of progress beyond the occasional lowball offer. With Anze Kopitar's extension with the Kings now signed and sealed, the lack of a Stamkos deal stands out even more. Until something gets done, fans will be left wondering if the Lightning might be forced to trade their superstar captain—a scenario that already played out once before in Tampa, just two years earlier, with Martin St. Louis.

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But the Stamkos situation has been overshadowed this month by the drama around Jonathan Drouin, the talented 20-year-old who's yet to really break through at the NHL level. It's probably fair to go ahead and describe Drouin as an ex-Lightning now, after he walked away from the team's AHL affiliate last week in an attempt to force a trade. What remains to be seen is where he ends up, and how long general manager Steve Yzerman decides to make him wait before it happens.

In the meantime, Drouin is getting at least lukewarm support from his former teammates, including Victor Hedman, the star defenceman who'll need a new contract and big raise of his own next year (and who's represented by the same agency, though not the same agent, that handles Drouin). Between St. Louis, Stamkos/Drouin and Hedman, we may be looking at the ghost of Lightning headaches past, present and future.

So sure, it's tough times for the Lightning—right up until they take the ice. The team has been on fire lately, winning seven straight heading into the weekend and moving to within three points of the lead in the Atlantic. After a slow start that dragged on through the season's first two months, the Lightning suddenly look like the team that went to the final last year, not to mention the team that plenty of us were picking as Stanley Cup favourites.

That win streak came to an end Saturday, when the Lightning dropped a 5-2 decision to the Panthers in an entertaining game that featured plenty of action at both ends. The loss leaves the Lightning tied with the Red Wings for second place in the Atlantic, five back of Florida for the division lead. Not bad for a team that was tenth in the conference less than three weeks ago and out of the playoffs entirely.

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And as for the off-ice drama, it could still all work out in the team's favor. Yzerman insists that he'll be able to extract maximum value for Drouin even while his hand is largely being forced, and given how the St. Louis situation turned out, we tend to believe him. As for Stamkos, the Lightning's recent surge probably quiets some of the trade talk that would have otherwise built toward the deadline. After all, if the sniper really is set on hitting free agency, who'd be most willing to sacrifice the future to have him aboard for a stretch drive and playoff push? Only an elite team that had the talent to take a serious run at a Stanley Cup—and right now, that description sounds a lot like the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Race to the Cup

The five teams with the best shot at winning the Stanley Cup.

5. Florida Panthers (28-15-5, +19 true goals differential)After losing four straight, they spent the weekend posting convincing wins over both the Hawks and Lightning to re-establish their top-tier credentials.

4. Dallas Stars (30-14-5, +28)—They dominated everywhere but the scoreboard in dropping a 3-1 decision to the Avalanche on Saturday. Still, they flip spots with the Kings for a very good reason.

3. Los Angeles Kings (30-15-3, +17)—Is that reason "So we could avoid having the exact same top five as last week?" Cannot confirm or deny.

2. Chicago Blackhawks (33-15-4, +29)—They're dominant at home, but have lost more than they've won on the road. The only Central team that's not true for: Colorado. I know, I had to double-check it a few times, too.

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1. Washington Capitals (35-8-3, +54)—Both of their weekend matchups were wiped out by the storm. Alexander Ovechkin, meanwhile, reached another milestone, passing Hall of Famer Joe Sakic on the all-time list for snow blowers successfully operated.

This is the season's fifth edition of our weekend power rankings. The first two came in October, and were followed by a few months off because, um, stuff happened. But that press of the pause button serves as a reminder of how much things can change over a half season or so, because the same team sat on top of both of those early-season rankings, and it wasn't especially close: The Montreal Canadiens were running over the league, winning their first nine games and setting a new mark for the best start in the long history of the franchise.

Montreal is a different—and dangerous—team with Carey Price between the pipes. —Photo by Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

These days, that's exactly what the Canadiens' start feels like: history. They've gone just 15-20-4 since then, and that record looks stunningly bad since the end of November, posting a 6-16-0 mark that's by far the league's worst. The team has gone from running away with its division to sitting outside of a playoff spot. Fans are panicking. Coach Michel Therrien is on the hot seat. This is a team in freefall.

Or is it?

In late December, as it was becoming apparent that the Canadiens' woes were far more than just a minor wobble, Therrien took the strange stance that the team was playing better while losing than it had been during the October hot streak. He was mocked for that in some quarters, but here's the thing: He was kind of right, at least at the time. While the Canadiens' last few weeks have been indisputably ugly, their December struggles really did come in spite of some solid play. That's important, because there's a big difference between a slump that's gone on for a couple of weeks and one that's dragged on for two-plus months.

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And there's evidence that the team has improved this year in some important ways. Under Therrien, the Habs have typically been a poor possession team, one that played an old-school that often left it relying on superior percentages to stay competitive. That led some to argue that the Canadiens were a good team that couldn't be great until they had a new coach. And this year, to some extent, that's what Montreal got—Therrien made subtle but significant changes to his system, and the Canadiens are now among the best puck possession teams in the league.

Needless to say, it hasn't helped on the standings page, and here's where those pesky percentages come in again. The Canadiens rank in the league's bottom half in both shooting and save percentage (5v5, score adjusted), and those numbers have been especially ugly over the course of this slump. Mix in a sagging powerplay, and goals have been hard to come by; in their 23 games since Dec. 1, the Habs have scored two or fewer goals 18 times. Even in today's low-scoring NHL, you can't win with that sort of offensive output unless you've got all-world goaltending.

And that's where Montreal fans can find some solace, because as it turns out, this team does have exactly that. That would be Carey Price, of course, and he's been sidelined by injury for most of the season. He's out for at least another month, and by the time he returns it could be too late to save the Canadiens' season. But if the percentages even out and the Canadiens can stay in the race, a Price return could be enough to flip the script on what's turned out to be a miserable season. The Habs wouldn't look like the 9-0-0 force that they once were, but you wouldn't want your favorite team to draw them in the first round.

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Marc Bergevin's recent vote of confidence for Therrien and his staff would seem to indicate that he won't panic. Montreal being the market that it is, he may be the only one, but it's probably the right call. The Canadiens' hot start may have been an illusion, but their recent misery should be as well. This is still a flawed team, just like every other club in the cap era, but with a few bounces and a healthy Price returning sometime next month, the Canadiens still look like a playoff team.

Race to No. 1

The five teams with the best chance of landing No. 1 overall pick.

5. Winnipeg Jets (21-24-3, -15)—Saturday's loss to the Devils capped a disastrous week that also featured losses to two of the teams they're chasing for a Central playoff spot.

4. Buffalo Sabres (19-25-4, -18)—Robin Lehner's first three games back from injury resulted in three losses. But he's looked sharp, especially against the Avs and Wings.

3. Edmonton Oilers (19-26-5, -30)—Trade rumors aside, it's kind of adorable that this headline even bothered using the word "if."

2. Toronto Maple Leafs (17-20-9, -14)—In a season that's almost entirely about setting the stage for the future, the apparent reconciliation with Dave Keon is a nice touch for fans who still remember the past.

1. Columbus Blue Jackets (17-27-5, -36)—OK, the season's a write-off, but at least we've hit rock bottom and it can't get any more ridiculously awful and whoops, spoke too soon.

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Let's welcome a new team to the bottom-five list. Hello, Winnipeg Jets. Go grab a seat over there. There's a pot of coffee in the back. If you need anything, go ahead and ask the Oilers, they pretty much own this place.

It wasn't supposed to be like this. The Jets had been playing the long game over the years, slowly but surely building up one of the best pipelines of young talent in the league. Last year's emotional return to the postseason ended quickly, but it was the first step down a long road toward eventual glory. This was the year that the Jets would return to the playoffs, and this time they'd make a little noise while they were there.

Things went according to plan early, with a 4-1-0 start in which the Jets outscored their opponents 18-9. But since then, the team has been spinning its wheels. The Jets have won just 17 of 43 since that start, and they've yet to string together a win streak longer than two games on the season. In most divisions, that kind of record would be bad. In the Central, it's all but fatal.

Trading captain Andrew Ladd might be the smart play for the struggling Jets. —Photo by Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Jets are sitting 13th in the West, ahead of only Edmonton and nine points out of a playoff spot. Even if we assume that the Central will take both wild-card spots and send five teams to the postseason—a good bet, but no sure thing—that leaves Winnipeg needing to leapfrog two division rivals, and it's awfully tough to figure out who that would be. The Predators? They're seven points up and seem to be in win-now mode, so you'd figure they'll add reinforcements as the deadline approaches. The Wild? They're nine up, and on paper at least should be better than their record has shown. The Avalanche? They were supposed to be the Central's weak link, but they're ten up and are one of the league's hottest teams. The Blues, Stars or Hawks? They're already long gone.

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You never want to say never, and the Jets certainly wouldn't be the first small-market Canadian team to make a miracle run. But at this point, that's what they need—a miracle. And they need it soon, because their schedule down the stretch is ugly. And remember, all of that's just to snag a wild-card spot, and earn the right to face the Kings or Hawks. A deep run beyond that? It's not happening.

So what now? Like the Canadiens, the Jets have an injured starting goalie on the verge of a return. Unlike the Canadiens, the Jets' guy isn't all that good. The return of Ondrej Pavelec could do more harm than good, both on and off the ice, as the Jets are going to need to decide whether Connor Hellebuyck keeps the starter's job. His numbers—a .926 save percentage in 21 games—say it's a no-brainer. Pavelec's number—a $3.9 million cap hit through the end of next year—says he's too expensive to be a backup, so what do the Jets do?

This team still has plenty of young talent, both in Winnipeg and beyond, and it should add plenty more if it bites the bullet and becomes a full-fledged seller down the stretch. Dustin Byfuglien and struggling captain Andrew Ladd are both still unsigned, and could be the two biggest names in play at the deadline if the Jets decided to go that route. They'd get plenty for either guy, and a ton for both.

Add a few prime picks or prospects to the system, and the future is still bright in Winnipeg. The present? Not so much. The road ahead may still be promising, but it looks an awful lot longer today than it did back in October.

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Elsewhere around the league

  • In addition to those two Caps games, the weekend's big blizzard also wiped out Saturday's Islanders/Flyers matchup. All three games will be made up at a later date.

  • Milan Lucic missed Sunday's game versus the Sharks, serving a one-game suspension after this sucker punch against the Coyotes on Saturday. The Kings still earned a 3-2 overtime win, and now own a nine-point lead in the Pacific.

  • Evgeni Malkin recorded his tenth career hat trick in Saturday's 5-4 win over the Canucks. The Pens had trailed 3-1 in the third before scoring four straight to ice the win. They still trail the Devils by two for the East's final wild-card spot; New Jersey has won four straight, and the two teams will meet Tuesday night in Pittsburgh.

  • The Devils are also getting uncomfortably close to ruining that Islanders/Rangers first-round matchup. Back off, New Jersey. The Devils face the struggling Rangers in a week after the All-Star break.

  • The Avalanche keep rolling, winning four straight to maintain their grip on a wild-card spot. The road doesn't get any easier, though, as their next four games come against Western rivals sitting ahead of them in the standings.

Finally, some rare good news on the health front (or really any front) for the Oilers: Connor McDavid looks set to return after the All-Star break. It's likely too late for a playoff run, but the Oilers need to close out the season with something positive to build on.