Blue Jays Mailbag: What a Josh Donaldson Extension Could Cost Toronto

Andrew Stoeten answers your questions in our Blue Jays Mailbag, which runs weekly at VICE Sports. You can send him questions at stoeten@gmail.com, and follow him on Twitter.

The Blue Jays are through with interleague play for the season, but not without taking one last giant gut-punch from the Chicago Cubs, ending what was a fantastic and fun weekend of baseball in the Windy City in just about as frustrating a way as possible.

The playoffs are still a possibility, but it's hard not to get hung up on the disaster that unfolded in extra innings on Sunday. Or, at least, that's where the questions we're about to see in this week's mailbag are at. So let's dive in!

If you have a Blue Jays question you'd like me to tackle for next week, be sure to send it to stoeten@gmail.com. As always, I have not read any of Griff's answers.

Legit question: WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT 10th INNING??
Remko

Honestly, if it hadn't been such a punch in the gut for Blue Jays fans, I'd almost say it was kind of cute. Just one of those inexplicable, unbelievable, never-seen- that-before things that give the game of baseball such great character. It wasn't really a case of Roberto Osuna melting down (he'd induced three outs before anybody scored) nor was Raffy Lopez entirely to blame—strikeouts or not, Osuna was certainly quite a bit more wild than we're used to seeing him. John Gibbons wasn't to blame, either, although some on my Twitter timeline were in a hurry to do just that. You have to try pretty hard to see something wrong with a manager sticking with his best reliever in that situation—especially after the guy should have recorded all the outs he needed!

In different circumstances—at a different point in the season, or with the Blue Jays in a different place in the standings—you'd probably just shrug, laugh it off, and hope your team goes out and gets the next one. But with the Jays running out of time to pile up wins and make a real charge for the playoffs, every loss is big. And a loss in a game that they felt they surely had won is even bigger. Oof.

---

Despite a painful sweep in Chicago (2 rallies that came up short, and today's extra innings gut punch) the Jays still have a chance, right?
Jonathan

Are the teams ahead of them still trash? (Yes.)

Do they still have eight games left with the Twins? Seven with the Orioles? Six with the Yankees? Three each with the Rays and Royals? (Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes and yes.)

Then yeah, they absolutely still have a chance. This weekend, and especially Sunday, didn't do them any favours, though. For the moment it's not a great chance. But it's a chance.

---

Why isn't Osuna throwing his fastball? Looks like he's throwing mostly cutters and sliders.
Scott

Lately Osuna has definitely gone away from his four-seamer, and you're right that most of that usage has shifted to his cutter, and that his slider has become a more predominant part of his repertoire as well. There has been quite a bit of chatter about just what in the hell is going on with him—about whether he's hurting, and why his velocity has dropped (per Brooks Baseball his four-seamer averaged 95.7 in June and is at 93.9 in August)—but reader Ethan Jackson Kelly (aka @jacksonk20) points us to some data at FanGraphs that suggests the answer might be more simply pragmatic: Osuna's four-seamer just hasn't been effective this year.

Osuna's cutter is generating swinging strikes 20.9% of the time this season, whereas his four-seamer is at just 10.3%—down from 11.9% and 12.9% in 2016 and 2015, respectively. The rate of contact is higher than on his other pitches, and the 47.4% line-drive rate when his four-seamer is put into play is ugly. That's up from 26.4% last season, and far worse than the cutter, which sits at 25.8%.

The recent dip in velocity almost certainly has something to do with why he's gone so strongly away from the pitch, but it's been a problem all year long. That makes sense because the recent dip is compounding the dip that he saw right out of the gate this year—the average velocity of his four-seamer fell between 95 and 96 mph from April to June, making them the first three months his average dipped below 96 since May 2015 (a month in which he was making the transition from starter, to long reliever, to high-leverage short relief—and ramping up his velocity in the process).

This may simply be the new normal for Osuna, and given the way he's been inducing strikeouts, while walking fewer batters than ever, maybe that's OK.

---

What kind of money/term would it take to get a Donaldson extension? What position would he fit with Vlad Jr being the next 3rd baseman?
Anthony

Uh… look, Vlad's an exciting prospect and all, and he may even be able to stick at third base for a while, but where does an MVP fit? Wherever he fuckin' wants to.

Plus, a pretty realistic timeline for Vlad would have him back at Dunedin next spring, up to New Hampshire mid year, then getting to Buffalo at some point in 2019, and maybe the big leagues by that September. The thought of him being here that quickly is absolutely astounding considering he's a guy that would have been getting drafted this past June, had he been a high schooler in the US or Canada. And with the way Vlad's been tearing up Dunedin of late (he was just named the Florida State League's player of the week), an optimist could even push it up a little bit. But not by that much. And if Donaldson is here in 2019, he's the third baseman. If he's here in 2020, he's the third baseman. If he's here in 2021, he's the third baseman.

As for what kind of money/term it would take to keep Donaldson around, I have no earthly idea. He'll be 33 in the first year of his next contract. That's a year younger than Edwin Encarnacion is this year, and he got a four-year deal, despite providing no defensive value and having a pretty decent history of small injuries. Unless he falls apart next year, Donaldson will surely get five years. He'll likely get a sixth, and maybe even more. And his average annual value will be, like, what, $25 million per year? $30 million?

Something like that, I'd wager. So he's looking at something north of five years and $150 million. Maybe more like six or seven years and $200 million. David Price was going into his age-30 season when he got seven years and $217 million, but maybe the fact that he's a pitcher—and so naturally carries more risk of injury—offsets the difference enough to make it somewhat comparable?

I figure that's the ballpark, at least. And while the Jays can maybe use to their advantage the fact that he's due to go to arbitration again next year—offer $30 million for 2018, rather than the $20 million or so he'd get in arbitration, plus $150 million for the five after that—I'm just not sure that's their M.O., and I'm just not sure that whoever pays him next isn't going to be paying for a whole lot of production the Jays got a bargain price these last three seasons. I'm sure someone will, though. (DO IT, JAYS!).

Should JD get more starts at shortstop?
Kate

Yes, please!

I mean, I don't want to see him out there every day, but if he can play there in a pinch, and maybe allow the team to raise the bar for offensive production on their bench by eliminating the ability to field shortstop as a prerequisite, sign me up!

---

What's the most money and years you'd give Estrada after 2017?
Randy

I think two years is very palatable, and four years is a definite no, so for the right price I could be convinced to give him a three-year deal. And that right price would be… certainly not a whole lot more than $15 million per season. Even that feels like it's too much, given the year he's had, but I could at least envision being able to negotiate if his camp had a starting point of three years and $45 or $50 million, and I'd maybe even give that to him, depending on what it looks like in comparison to other deals that might be out there. Beyond it and I'd lose interest pretty quickly, though.

Another deal like the one he's currently on—two years, $26 million—would probably be my starting point, and hopefully we could meet somewhere in the middle. It would be nice to see him back! I mean, some team is going to give him a chance in 2018, and with a Marco Estrada-sized hole to fill in their rotation, why the hell shouldn't it be the Jays?

---

Are Tom Koehler and Brett Anderson able to be under team control and start in AAA? They are on the fine line of nice AAA depth, but not so good MLB SP.
Adrian

First off, what is nice Triple-A depth if not a not so good MLB starter?

To your question, Anderson is only under team control for 2017. He'll be a free agent after the year. Koehler, though, has at least one year of team control remaining.

I say "at least," because Koehler's case is a bit more tricky. He came into this season with four years and 16 days of MLB service time (according to Cot's) and has spent some time down in the minors. A "year" in terms of service time is 172 days on the big league roster, and there are usually (per FanGraphs' explanation) about 183 days in a season. Koehler has already been in the minors for 28 days this year, at the time of this writing, which by that math means that he won't be able finish this season with five years of service. That means he won't be able to finish next season with six years of service (he can't make up extra "days" next year—the maximum any player can accrue is 172 days, even if they're in the big leagues for all 183), so he won't reach free agency until after 2019. (At least as far as I can figure!)

Of course, it may be a moot point if the Jays don't tender him a contract for next year. But he is making just $5.75 million, won't get much of a raise on that (if any) and so looks like a rather interesting and inexpensive depth piece for the club going forward. Maybe a long reliever or a guy who ends up getting a chance to pitch in the back of the rotation. And while that may feel like an extremely unsexy outcome for the 2018 Jays, fans would do well to keep in mind how badly the team could have used a pitcher like Koehler this season. Or, at least, a pitcher like Koehler was in 2014, 2015, and 2016, when he made 96 starts for the Marlins, and ranged between 0.6 and 1.6 WAR per season. Compared to some of the sub-replacement level depth starters we saw this year, that actually looks pretty good!