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Blue Jays Mailbag: Estrada's Struggles, Smoak's Value, and Selling High

Andrew Stoeten answers questions on whether we'll see the Estrada of old again, and if the Blue Jays should look to sell Smoak and Osuna at the trade deadline.
Photo by Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Andrew Stoeten answers your questions in our Blue Jays Mailbag, which runs weekly at VICE Sports. You can send him questions at stoeten@gmail.com, and follow him on Twitter.

The Blue Jays are through the All-Star break! And have headed straight into the buzzsaw that is a 10-game road trip to Detroit, Boston, and Cleveland.

The Tigers are the worst of that bunch, and the Jays lost that series—in about as frustrating a way as possible. It's a good thing that baseball teams are never as good or as bad as they seem at any given moment, because… oof.

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And so this is the mood that we're in as we once again open up the ol' mailbag. This should be fun!

If you have a Blue Jays question you'd like me to tackle for next week, be sure to send it to stoeten@gmail.com. As always, I have not read any of Griff's answers.

Do you expect to see a resurgence of ACEstrada anytime soon? - Kate

I wish I knew. Estrada has been betrayed this year by his defence, by luck, but also by his own ability to command the ball. It's hard to determine what the precise mix of these factors is, and therefore tough to figure out when—or if—it will return.

For years he's been a guy who suppresses quality contact—a skill usually attributed to his ability to keep hitters off balance with his outstanding changeup and his "cue ball" fastball that appears to rise. Among starters who threw at least 300 innings between 2015 and 2016, Estrada's .224 batting average on balls in play was the best in baseball by a long shot. Cubs ace Jake Arrieta ranked second at .242, and 25th-ranked Corey Kluber was all the way up at .284. It was always a worry that he'd see a bit of regression here, but the drop off has been staggering. So far this season his batting average on balls in play is at .330—over 100 points higher than his last two seasons, but also significantly higher than his 2011-14 seasons with the Brewers.

Estrada is having his worst season as a Blue Jays after two stellar years in a row. Photo by Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

A little better defence, and a little better luck, and how good would Estrada have been over these last two months? He certainly would have had a better fourth inning than the one we witnessed in Detroit on Sunday. I hesitate to say that everything is probably fine and he'll definitely come back around, but there don't seem to be a lot of answers in his peripherals, either: walk rate, strikeout rate, hard contact rate—a lot of things look reasonably in line with the guy he's been the two years before this. He's allowed fewer infield fly balls than last season, though they've come at about the same rate as 2015. And he's allowed more line drives than 2015, but not a huge uptick on his mark from last year. There is less separation, in terms of velocity, between his fastball and his changeup, as compared to last season, but again it's not far off 2015. We're not really seeing a smoking gun here, and are basically left to the things we're hearing from the club itself, like that he's had a little bit of trouble with feel for the changeup that we're used to seeing him throw with such precision. Maybe it's the seams!

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Whatever the case, while you had to think about it in this way, and hope that he just gets right—and that the damn defence behind him gets better—if the trend continues through September, he's the kind of guy who might be available for relatively cheap this winter, and I'd sure be cool with seeing the Jays re-sign him in the hope that he bounces back.

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A's got a 3 years of Treinan and 2 top 10 prospects for 36 year old Madson and 30 year old Doolittle. Time to see what Osuna could fetch? - Formerly The Smasher

Holy piss, no.

For starters, the contending team most desperate to fix their bullpen is now off the market.

For two, Madson may be 36, but he's consistently one of the better relievers in baseball, and Doolittle's 31 strikeouts to two walks in 21.1 innings is bonkers. These are two very good pitchers, both with term still left on their deals—Madson is signed on for next year as well, Doolittle has club options that could keep him in Washington through 2020, none of which exceeds $6.5 million. Osuna is also on track to be a free agent after 2020, but his salary for the next three seasons will be determined by arbitration. And with the arbitration system still giving its biggest payouts based on old school stats, the fact that he's racked up so many saves in his young career means he's likely not going to be cheap—certainly not by the end.

Keep him. And start him. Photo by Jason Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

I don't think money would be a reason anyone would say no to Osuna, but even if we believe he's a cut above even these two very good relievers (which we do), the Nationals got both, and for what? I don't know quite enough about the prospects going the other way to dislike them, but the best of the two is in rookie ball and coming off Tommy John surgery. That doesn't mean he can't still be a great player for Oakland, but are we really salivating over Treinen (meh) and a pair of "top ten" prospects from a farm system Keith Law of ESPN.com had ranked just behind the Jays back in January? Because I'm sure not.

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Relievers are a volatile group, and I understand the idea of trading them at their high point, and that you could get something very nice back for a guy like Osuna. But the return on these two A's pitchers left me a long way from wanting to rush into moving Osuna anywhere but into the rotation!

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People throw around the term 'bandwagoner' to anyone who's lost hope for the season, in your view what constitutes a bandwagon fan? - akmedo

The definition of a bandwagon fan seems pretty simple, no? Someone is on the bandwagon in good times, and off it in bad times. In that sense, the vast majority of fans are of the bandwagon variety, to some degree or another, I think. But teams need those kinds of fans, and I think you're right to be angling for someone to push back against the use of the word as pejorative. If someone doesn't like the game for what it is and finds that when their team is losing games it sucks the life out of them, enduring that just to say you're still a fan is hardly a badge of honour.



I don't think fans who have "lost hope for season" are bandwagon fans, though—I think they're something else entirely. "Unimaginative," at the very least. And if they spend their time bleating about it, as though they've cracked the Baseball Code and are waiting, arms folded, with a smug smile, on terra firma, to greet anyone stepping off the bandwagon with I-told-you-sos, we can probably add the word "miserable" to our description, as well.

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What is the better Jean Claude Van Damme movie, Lionheart or Timecop - Josh

While almost any film from his classic period will provide some kind of enjoyment, I'm of the mind that Bloodsport, Kickboxer, and Lionheart are really the only Van Damme movies that you need.

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Would you trade Smoak at highest possible value or hang onto him and believe he can continue this next season? - JSports47

I think you definitely keep him, mostly because I'm not convinced his trade value has yet to catch up with the value we're seeing him provide night after night on the field. I think teams would be justifiably worried about all of this suddenly going away, yet I think the Jays would be justified in asking for a whole lot for him, because his contract—suddenly, mind-bendingly—now looks so team-friendly. Smoak makes $4.125 million this season, will make the same amount next season, and has a club option for 2019 with a $6 million base that could get up to $8 million if he makes 1,100 plate appearances in 2017-18 combined. Even considering the way the market for one-dimensional power cratered last winter, if the Smoak of 2017 is now going to be the Smoak of forever and ever and ever, it looks like a hell of a bargain.

Smoak keeps mashing. Photo by Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

But would you want your team giving up top talent for a guy like that? With a track record like that? I sure wouldn't. Not yet, at least. Because I think it would still be a huge gamble to believe that he's going to keep this up. If you're the Jays you'd hate to not trade him now and then watch him turn back into a pumpkin, but unless you're raising the white flag on 2018 already, there's not a whole lot of sense in doing that, I don't think. If he keeps it up for the next 365 days and the team ends up being out of it next year anyway, he'll have at least as much trade value as now, given the year of control and the fact that the track record will be that much longer.

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Three Jays you cut loose at the deadline? - Drew

Not really how that works.

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If they are sellers and trade away more than one starter, who takes the vacant spots in the rotation? - Trilly Mo Peña

It's a great question, because… uh… —*looks at Buffalo's rotation* — it sort of… — *looks at New Hampshire's rotation* — I… — *looks at Joe Biagini's numbers as a starter* — the thing is — *looks at Blue Jays careers of 2017 spot starters Mat Latos, Casey Lawrence, and Mike Bolsinger* — … oh boy.

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Will another Montero throw reach 2nd without bouncing this season? - A. Halkias

Depends if they give him another chance, and at this point I'm not sure I'm taking the over.