Joel Embiid's Looming Contract Extension is a Really Big Deal

If it hasn't already, Joel Embiid's next contract will soon enter the NBA's ever-expanding list of critical preseason subplots. With both sides weighing all the different ways a negotiation can turn sour, rookie extensions are fraught. Only three seasons of evidence are available for a team to decide whether they want to commit millions of dollars to a prospect whose future is a mystery.

Take this usual dilemma, pump it full of steroids, and you get something approximating the Embiid Situation. Given his upside, evident ability, and the laundry list of health-related snake traps that loom around every corner, the stakes here are extremely high. Embiid is a franchise pillar who's talented enough to make everyone forget how embarrassingly awful the Philadelphia 76ers have been for half a decade.

Embiid's per 36 minute numbers from last season are scripture in Philly: 28.7 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks. He had the same three-point percentage as Jimmy Butler, a higher PER than over half of the league's All-Stars, and the ninth-highest usage rate in NBA history. The Sixers outscored opponents by 67 points with Embiid on the floor, and were outscored by 534 points when he didn't play. In short, he was the first (and only) player to singlehandedly move the needle in a positive direction since the organization hired Sam Hinkie.

If they were judging strictly by his on-court impact, Philadelphia would've already offered the 23-year-old a five-year, $148 million contract. Instead he's heading into the final year of his rookie deal before potentially becoming a restricted free agent next offseason.

The problem, of course, is staying on the court in the first place. Embiid has only appeared in 31 games (for a total of 786 minutes) since he was drafted in 2014. If he can ever maintain his dominance without a minute restriction, he'll be one of the five best players in the world, more than qualified to serve as the backbone of a legitimate championship contender. But all that's meaningless if he can't stay on the court.

Embiid is a 7'2" giant who might not be built for the rigors of an 82-game season, let alone the playoffs, year-round workouts, and the general stress that continuous travel has on the body. Going back to his freshman year at Kansas, he's had a stress fracture in his back, multiple surgeries to repair a broken navicular bone in his right foot, and surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. Not great!

This means the Sixers almost definitely will not offer a five-year max contract. Doing so without any assurance that Embiid can even compete on the second night of a back-to-back could cripple their flexibility and handicap their rebuild. We're about five months removed from his most recent knee surgery, and Embiid still hasn't been cleared for full-court scrimmaging.

Yes, his numbers were incredible last season. But a snapshot does not make a Hall of Fame career. As tantalizing a talent as he is and still projects to be, there are flaws in Embiid's game worth discussing.

Only 28 players have logged a higher turnover rate than he did as a rookie. Embiid was a below-average finisher in the restricted area, and nearly a quarter of his field goal attempts were long twos. He spaced the floor just fine, but also finished in the 29th percentile as a spot-up scorer, per Synergy Sports. He also finished 17th among centers in Real Plus-Minus.

It's fair to look at his subpar supporting cast—the closest thing Embiid had to a playmaker was T.J. McConnell—and imagine how much better he'll be when he doesn't have to do everything himself. J.J. Redick should provide more space while Amir Johnson can be a shrewd presence on the defensive end. Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz may turn into a pair of stable pick-and-roll partners while also opening up more opportunities in the open floor, and natural steps forward by Robert Covington, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, and other members of Philadelphia's young core have the potential to make life easier for the team's most dominant player.

Most of Embiid's offensive influence came in the post, a habit that clashes with where basketball is headed. But despite a massive physical advantage, Embiid doesn't dominate by ioverpowering the opposition. What makes him so unique is his agility: the footwork, touch, and aquatic flow that allow him to exercise control over an entire game.

There's value in having someone draw so much attention down low, but according to Synergy Sports, Embiid only finished in the 52nd percentile on post-up possessions; an inefficient snag like that can turn into a big old messy tear if the entire offense tips toward his comfort zone. If he wants to validate a max deal, Embiid will eventually have to prove he can produce for over 30 minutes every night—something he's never, in his life, shown he can do—while racing to set high screens, rolling through the paint, and scrambling in the open floor.

The Sixers will be able to match any offer sheet if no agreement is made before October 31st, but forcing Embiid to go out and get a max deal elsewhere may not prove ideal in the long-term. Other organizations will be more willing to take a risk on him, given their life cycle, expectations, and cap sheet. (The Brooklyn Nets would likely offer Embiid a four-year max contract even if he suffers another minor injury. Same probably goes for the Chicago Bulls, Atlanta Hawks, and Phoenix Suns.) If it gets to that point and Philly matches, they have one fewer year with Embiid under their control—this is what happened to the Utah Jazz, and they watched Gordon Hayward flee to the Boston Celtics in July.

Embiid could also choose not to sign a restricted deal at all. He could play out the following season under his qualifying offer then enter the open market as an unrestricted free agent. Signing Embiid to a long-term deal and having him spend a majority of it on the sideline in a turtleneck would be a disaster. Watching him flourish as a megastar in a different city would be cataclysmic.

This is what Philadelphia faces. Do they view Jahlil Okafor as an insurance policy—of sorts…please stop laughing. Someone in their backpocket who can develop into a reliable starting NBA center alongside Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz? What about Dario Saric, who may develop into a reliable frontcourt cornerstone? Will they give Embiid, Simmons, and Saric max deals in a three-year span, should they prove worthy? (And then there's Covington, the ultimate 3-and-D role player who's about to get paid next summer.)

So much can happen between now and then. But meaningful decisions rest on the horizon no matter what, and Embiid's extension stands as the first domino to fall. From his perspective, grabbing as much money as he possibly can before he steps on the court again makes quite a bit of sense.

A four-year, $100 million contract seems reasonable; there's precedent with that exact number between Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. But then Antetokounmpo went and established himself as one of the 10 best players in the league last season, and left Milwaukee kicking itself for not locking him up on a five-year deal.

Embiid's situation is different, considering even the slightest injury may convince Philadelphia to think twice about giving him as many years and dollars as the league's CBA will allow. By taking a little less than he's ostensibly worth, Embiid can insure his fragile body with a nine-figure, life-altering deal.

He can enter next year with a clear mind and not worry about the financial downside another surgery would have. On the other hand, he'd leave guaranteed money on the table. That money can be made up three or four years down the road on his next contract (Embiid would be wise to negotiate a player option into his final season), assuming he's matured into a dependable All-Star, and because every other team can only offer five percent annual raises, signing an offer sheet would also guarantee less money than an agreement over the next six weeks.

But just as likely, Embiid may want to bet on himself, try to win Defensive Player of the Year—a valid possibility given his fierce rim protection and surprising mobility on the perimeter (…again, if he stays on the court)—and become eligible for a five-year deal worth 30 percent of the cap, instead of his current max slot's 25 percent.

There are no easy decisions for either party. But given Embiid's surreal talent, appeal, and wild popularity, the Sixers can't afford to make any mistakes with the limited information they have.