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It's the Capitals' Stanley Cup to Lose

Saying that Washington is one win away from a championship shouldn't be controversial, but because the Capitals have gagged so often, it’s the rare chalky hot take.
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

After 42 years in the NHL, the Washington Capitals will play for their first Stanley Cup on Wednesday night.

Sure, the Capitals have played in the literal Stanley Cup Final in the past, but that was against the Detroit Red Wings in 1998, which means never before have they had a chance to win one. And yes, it's merely Game 7 against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round, but this is it. Whether it's because of the NHL's silly playoff format, the shifting balance of power between the conferences, or just dumb luck, Wednesday night represents Alex Ovechkin's best, and perhaps last, shot at a championship.

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"Dave, what the hell, bro? It's one game in the second round, man. Isn't that disrespectful to the other remaining teams?"

It sure is! But when you're already invested in the Caps winning the Cup and you called the Penguins-Capitals series the true Stanley Cup Final (for the second straight postseason), there's no reason to do anything other than sell out completely on the idea that this is the Caps' year, and that this Game 7 against their Pittsburgh tormentors represents their chance to finally break the dam that has held the organization back for nearly a decade.

Washington Capitals celebrate

The Capitals are one choke-free night away from a clear path to the Cup. Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

If there's one team that most resembles the current Washington Capitals, it's the 2004 Boston Red Sox. The championship droughts aren't quite the same, but the expectations and the cursed nature of each team make them first cousins in the family of sports heartache. In 2003, the Red Sox lost Game 7 of the ALCS to the New York Yankees; in 2004, the Red Sox rallied from a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS to beat the Yankees and swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series.

In two weeks, the Red Sox went from a hexed team of losers to a bunch of fun-loving characters who knew how to win. The narratives had an amazing way of changing.

The Capitals are now in position to make a similar turnaround. In 2016, they lost in the second round in six games to the Penguins; now they have a chance to rally from a 3-1 deficit to win Game 7 against the Penguins. If that happens, the Capitals should tear through whichever teams they encounter in the final two rounds of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

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There's something about breaking through a mental barrier (and the tangible second-round barrier) against a team that has owned your existence. It's not that you are carrying momentum into the next round or rounds; it's that you are no longer carrying the weight of past failures. In its place is an overwhelming belief that if you can beat the team that has tortured you, you can do anything.

It's the chicken-or-egg argument of sports confidence: Does your team automatically have that confidence in big games, or does your team have to win the big game to have that confidence? It's safe to say the Capitals are the latter, and if coming back from the brink three times against the defending champion Penguins doesn't do it, nothing will.

There's also a fact that gets lost when talking about the complicated creature that is the Capitals: this team is very good. In fact, they are the best team in the NHL the past two seasons, according to the league standings. The big difference between last year and this year, specifically in the series against the Penguins, is that the Capitals are clearly the better team this year and have been sabotaged by either Braden Holtby or Dr. Samuel Beckett quantum leaping into Holtby's body for the first four games and now he has left to help someone else in a different time.

It feels like both a reach and the safest play possible to say the Capitals are one win from a championship, but that's the beauty of proclaiming a 118-point team will beat the Senators/Rangers and then the Predators/Oilers/Ducks. It should be the coolest take on a sports shouting show, but because the Capitals have gagged so often, it's the rare chalky hot take.

If the Capitals can win Game 7 with these stakes, against the Penguins, when everyone will be expecting them to win, with the knowledge that this team is getting a makeover this summer win or lose, winning eight more games against teams that finished about 15 points back in the standings will be a breeze.

All that would stand in the way after Wednesday would be one of two teams trying to find ice time for Chris Neil and Tanner Glass, a Randy Carlyle–coached team, a team that thinks Adam Larsson is the reincarnation of the still-living Bobby Orr or the Nashville Predators, who … OK, fine, I have nothing bad to say about the Predators, although P.K. Subban vs. Alex Ovechkin for a Cup is a choice no one should have to make.

Luckily, no one needs to choose, because the Capitals can make that decision Wednesday.

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