There’s Always Next Year: New York Jets

The Jets won the coveted Standings Outrage-Porn Award in 2015, finishing 10-6 and missing the playoffs because New York is not located in the AFC South. The Jets had a successful year, but they weren't able to step on the throat of a weak schedule. Losses to the Bills, the Texans, and the Raiders—the main competition for lower-tier AFC playoff spots—left them on the outside looking in.

Running it back for 2016, the Jets aren't exactly a juggernaut. They have a sizable contingency of important free agents, even after slapping Muhammad Wilkerson with the franchise tag. With the way Gang Green scheduled the contracts, 2015 seems to have been an evaluation year. Now general manager Mike Maccagnan & Co. have to make a lot of important decisions on the core behind their team's success last season and, given how far over career norms most of these players went, they're going to have to wonder how much regression there will be.

Some are positing that the Jets were so close to the playoffs last year that they should just keep the band together. I'm closer to the camp that believes they'll need a consolidation year. The schedule won't be quite so easy next season.

Coach and Quarterback Confidence Rating: 5/10

Out of nowhere, Ryan Fitzpatrick had the best statistical season of his career. He finished 13th in DYAR, 14th in DVOA, and 12th in QBR—numbers that placed him ahead of Aaron Rodgers in every category.

Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey and awesome receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker helped get him there. So did the fact that the Jets had a power run change-up for most of the season. Football's Rasputin (see: beard, arrives at hemophiliac quarterback situations) has proved to be a decent bridge signal caller the past two seasons. What is that worth on the open market?

Todd Bowles began to redeem his Philadelphia reputation (read: stench of Dream Team) in Arizona, and in his first year with the Jets he showed more than capable of creating a good defense and delegating offense. That's more than a lot of head coaches show in their first season. It's not time to crown him as a rising star or anything, but he certainly wasn't unprepared for the job.

Key Offseason Decision: Where are the linebackers coming from?

The Jets have all but moved on from inside linebacker Demario Davis. Calvin Pace is a 35-year-old free agent. Veteran Erin Henderson is a free agent. That's about 1,600 snaps of linebacker play. David Harris turned 32 in January and hasn't been capable of covering receivers for a few seasons now. The only highly drafted depth at the position, 2015 third-rounder Lorenzo Mauldin, played just 253 snaps last season.

Now, Mauldin is definitely worth a look outside, but Henderson, the favorite to be re-signed, is a stopgap. In an ideal world, the Jets would be able to find a new-age coverage linebacker and a star edge-rusher to add to the mix.

The real fear here is not that the Jets won't do that; it's that there's so much age and drop-off potential at these positions already. If they don't invest some resources in these spots this offseason, they could be looking at a black hole in 2016.

Major Free Agents: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, CB Antonio Cromartie, NT Damon Harrison, RB Chris Ivory, RB Bilal Powell

Fitzpatrick and the Jets should be able to find common ground. He looks better in this offense than he would elsewhere, and I doubt he's itching to head to Los Angeles or Houston. Big money can always change things, but I don't know that the Rams or the Texans would see him as worth that.

I've seen more than one piece declare "Big Snacks," as Harrison calls himself, a top-10 free agent. I don't think he makes it back to the Jets at this point, though they have plenty of defensive line pieces without him. Good player, but losing a nose tackle isn't the end of the world.

Ivory and Powell were New York's best backs last season, with Ivory finally living up to his potential as a true workhorse back. There's been surprisingly little to suggest he's coming back. You have to think his past injury history is going to be weighed against him on the open market.

Cap Situation: $6,687,256—26th in the NFL

This counts the Wilkerson franchise tag. The best ways for New York to create cap space would be a restructure of Darrelle Revis's contract that converts his base salary to a signing bonus. With a $17 million cap number in 2016, Revis is definitely the biggest weight. Wilkerson is next in line, but there's been little suggestion that the Jets are negotiating with him. Taking him off the franchise tag would save a bundle. There's also been talk of a D'Brickashaw Ferguson renegotiation after he had his worst season as a professional.

Past those two, the Jets could lop off Breno Giacomini for about $4.3 million in cap space. I expect some of their lower-salaried veterans to get the axe, as well.

The Jets aren't in a difficult or unmanageable cap situation, but they have a lot of work to do if they want to keep all their free agents. How far are they willing to stretch and contort to run it back with the 2015 team?