There's Always Next Year: Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers had a problem last season: next man up failed them.

Green Bay lost their most important receiver when Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason. Their second-best receiver, Randall Cobb, played through a shoulder issue all season and wasn't himself. Davante Adams was supposed to have a breakout second season but instead disintegrated. His inability to separate and catch passes meant that Green Bay's project receivers got playing time, which wasn't good for anyone involved.

The rest of the offense? Well, it looked bad. Eddie Lacy played like he weighed 500 pounds, James Starks couldn't stop fumbling, and the offensive line struggled under increased scrutiny. The unit dragged down Rodgers' advanced statistics, even putting him in the negatives in DVOA.

That shouldn't happen again. Receiver health won't be as bad, and the Packers surely realize they can't keep throwing Adams out there if he doesn't improve. Last season was ultimately a harsh lesson in the ways of injury regression. The pendulum should swing the other way in 2016.

Coach and Quarterback Confidence Rating: 8/10

While Rodgers had a bad year, it would be stupid to pretend he isn't a great quarterback. Rodgers threw just eight interceptions despite playing with a ragtag supporting cast. He can play in or out of the pocket with sorcerer-like accuracy. Until Rodgers shows obvious signs of physical decline, he's the best quarterback in the league. No one has come close to challenging him.

I'm less sold on Mike McCarthy. He made some questionable decisions as far as playing time in 2015. Packers fans will complain about his clock management until they're blue in the face. Green Bay deserves some credit for shifting offensive philosophy at the end of the season: they stopped asking their receivers to beat one-on-one coverage so much and simply made it easy for Rodgers. But it took them about three weeks too long, and home-field advantage mattered in the playoffs.

Key Offseason Decision: Is there a calculated Ted Thompson risk in free agency this year?

Under general manager Ted Thompson, the Packers are a boring franchise in free agency. They will find one or two guys they like, usually aging greats like Charles Woodson or Julius Peppers, and add them. Otherwise, they stay quiet.

This isn't a franchise that throws money at every need position they have, and they don't overreact to a bad season with signings. There are pros and cons to such an approach, though I'd say Thompson's track record deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Is that free agent out there this year? Green Bay could use some more edge pressure, as well as more offensive weapons. Their lack of investment in linebacker is a running joke, and they could desperately use someone who could cover tight ends and running backs. Running back help could be a good fit, too, and both Arian Foster and Matt Forte are out there waiting for a home.

Major Free Agents: CB Casey Hayward, WR James Jones, OLB Nick Perry, OLB Mike Neal, RB James Starks

Hayward is the No. 1 guy in this list, and perhaps the best corner hitting the open market this year, but Green Bay, having picked Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins high in the draft recently, may not absolutely need his services. Cornerback Sam Shields has played up to his big contract, as well, so Hayward might be better off escaping.

Perry is the next-best guy here, but his career has been marred by injuries and inconsistency. Someone should take a chance on his potential. It just hasn't been a clean fit in Green Bay.

Jones knows the routes and has chemistry with Rodgers, which might help come July or August. As it stands now, though, he's a replacement-level receiver. Starks and Neal are both mostly done.

Cap Situation: $22,087,614—20th in the NFL

Green Bay won't actually use this cap room, as we all know, but let's walk through the machinations for fun. The Packers have many veterans they could restructure or extend to create more cap space. Guards Josh Sitton ($6.8 million) and T.J. Lang ($5 million) are the obvious ones. Julius Peppers has a $10.5 million cap figure and the Packers could dunk that down if need be.

They also have a number of base salaries they could convert to signing bonuses in a pinch. Rodgers has $11.5 million in base salary that could become a bonus. Clay Matthews has $8.6 million.

The Packers do a good job of not handing out stupid contracts to players outside their core, which gives the franchise a lot of flexibility—whether they choose to use it or not.