Manning-o-Meter measures the prowess of every first- and second-year quarterback on a weekly basis. It is, by nature, a subjective exercise. I will pepper in as many objective observations as I can along the way, but you will probably be mad with my conclusions at some point. DYAR and DVOA are Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted metrics,explained here. The goal is get a better indicator of how these guys are playing and where their teams may hold them back by play-calling and offensive personnel.
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The quarterbacks on the Manning-o-Meter are, from left-to-right: Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jon Kitna, Andy Dalton, Jake Plummer, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning. The scale is not measuring these quarterbacks against those players as rookies, but rather against a "vintage" performance by those players.Derek CarrTraditional Stats: 30-46, three touchdowns, one interception, one sackAdvanced Stats: 156 DYAR, 36.5% DVOAGIF of consequence:
Thing that held him back: Honestly, this was a pretty ideal game for Carr in a lot of ways.Analysis: I purposefully started with Carr's best throw. I came into this game looking at these numbers and expecting to be more impressed than I was. Instead, I found a quarterback who hit a few nice throws, but also was gifted a ton of yardage by a reeling defense.With Terrell Suggs out, the Ravens had trouble creating a pass rush. Oakland's almost-exclusive use of the shotgun didn't help Baltimore. But even beyond that, a surprising number of Oakland's yards came on coverage busts, penalties, or blown assignments. Here's Michael Crabtree's touchdown from the All-22. Be sure to watch for the falling Ravens defensive back.
What would have been a game-sealing interception to Will Hill was nullified by defensive holding. Carr had a number of really unimpressive throws after the first quarter but was able to build up a high completion percentage feasting underneath. It's bizarre that a quarterback so touted for his arm strength could almost average one underthrown deep ball every 10 pass attempts.
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This game is a great example of how a quarterback's stat line doesn't necessarily belong to him. Carr played fine, but this was hardly the dominant effort you'd believe it was by the numbers.
Thing that held him back: I guess you can critique the offensive line to an extent, but I didn't think it was a huge factor in this game.Analysis: Allen Robinson + any quarterback that can throw deep balls in his vicinity = a chance at a big play. That's mainly what happened in this one as Robinson victimized the Dolphins three times for big gains. I've given you above the best of the three deep Robinson throws, a back-shoulder ball. Bortles also laid up a ball that Robinson reeled down in double-coverage. Finally, Robinson was wide open after a safety bit on a double move for his second touchdown.Other than that, this wasn't much different than any other Bortles game of the past two seasons. His ball placement was silly and the completion percentage was only as high as it was because of some amazing catches. He threw a near pick-six at the end of the first half that hit a Dolphins defender right in the chest. He also improvised late in the down a lot in this particular game, which led to things like running Robinson and rookie running back T.J. Yeldon into each other:
I'm still not comfortable with Bortles as a starting quarterback on a down-to-down basis. You can certainly see why the Jaguars keep rolling him out there. You can stack his ten best plays of the season up against any quarterback in the league.
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But as much as I'd like to believe this game was a massive improvement for Bortles, I think it's more just a few circumstantial deep balls.
Teddy BridgewaterTraditional Stats: 14-18, 153 yards, one touchdown, one sackAdvanced Stats: 61 DYAR, 40.1% DVOAGIF of consequence:
Thing that held him back: Poor offensive line play, drops.Analysis: It's odd to say that a quarterback who only threw the ball 19 times made it look easy. But outside of a missed post in the end zone that he took a sack on, Bridgewater appeared like he was in control of this game from the beginning. This, despite seven or eight different dropbacks where he was under pressure. He handled it much better than he did against San Francisco.The Vikings came up short on a couple of third-down conversions when their receivers couldn't fully split the bit. Charles Johnson bobbled a pass that hit him right in the hands and had to dive backwards for it. Mike Wallace fell short of the sticks on a play that was challenged.It's worth noting that a lot of Bridgewater's yardage came on a fluke pass to Adrian Peterson under pressure. The Lions had overpurused to the point where Peterson got the edge and about 50 yards after it. Still, this was a really nice game, and a textbook example of what a coach really wants when he claims he's looking for a "game manager."
Jameis WinstonTraditional Stats: 14-21, 207 yards, one touchdown, three sacks
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Advanced Stats: 56 DYAR, 26.5% DVOAGIF of consequence:
Thing that held him back: Feels like we say this on a lot of them, but here especially: poor offensive line playAnalysis: Jameis Winston's first victory went about how you'd expect it to go. He ripped off three or four absolutely hellacious throws, the kind of throws that got him selected No. 1 overall in the first place. I linked the best of them above, but there were plenty to choose from.I was a little surprised by how much more often the Bucs went to Winston in the shotgun. They're clearly playing away from their line as much as they can after Week 1. Winston, for his part, looked inconsistent reacting to pocket pressure in this game. There were plays like the above, where he stayed focused and re-adjusted. There were also several scrambles of what I'll call "Zombie Jameis," where he lurches forward unsure of himself. He fumbled once on a zombie scramble.This game came with rookie mistakes too, of course. Tangled wires on a few plays — one where it looked like he'd called a play-action to nobody. This was a much better game plan than Week 1, and that shows in Winston's stat line. A good two-minute warning and a lot of (rejuvenated?) Doug Martin can help the Bucs minimize the damage their offensive line can put on Jameis.
Johnny ManzielTraditional Stats: 8-15, 172 yards, two touchdowns, two sacksAdvanced Stats: 8 DYAR, -3.2% DVOA
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GIF of consequence:
Thing you can blame for a poor performance: A very conservative game plan.Analysis: The Browns took the ball out of Manziel's hands as soon as the scoreline hit 14-0. It's often said that you can tell how a coaching staff feels about a player by how they use him. In that case, the Browns are terrified of Manziel. They used a ton of play-action in this game, often at the expense of lower route-tree options.This is the Manziel I expected to see out of Texas A&M. He makes you feel like anything is possible, good or bad, on any given play. I picked that play above because I felt like, even if the receiver dropped the ball, it was insane that Manziel was even able to make a play on it.The flaws are still there. Subpar ball placement. A little quick to scramble at times. A ton of his actual yardage in this game came on improvised plays, including the final touchdown.That said, the biggest issue for now is that he simply has to hold on to the ball when he gets sacked. No NFL head coach is going to deal with a quarterback fumbling twice a game.
Marcus MariotaTraditional Stats: 21-37, 257 yards, two touchdowns, seven sacksAdvanced Stats: -88 DYAR, -44.3% DVOAGIF of consequence:
Thing you can blame for a poor performance: Jeremiah Poutasi's "blocking," uncharacteristic accuracy problems.Analysis: If this is the worst kind of game you get out of Mariota, Titans fans, it's going to be a good year. The offensive line collapsed on itself after Chance Warmack left, and rookie right tackle Jeremiah Poutasi put Mariota in danger early and often.Mariota's accuracy was a bit troubling in this game, especially when trying to connect on deep sideline balls. It was almost like he was trying to be a little too perfect on them. He did mix in some nice stick throws, a good back-shoulder ball and the touchdown strike to Dorial Green-Beckham, which was awesome. It's not like he was terrible. It just was a game with a few clear flaws; Mariota ran himself into one of the sacks, for instance.The game plan was, well, interesting. Tennessee clearly favored their tight ends — I don't think I've ever seen an offensive blueprint closely designed around Anthony Fasano and Chase Coffman. I imagine Delanie Walker is going to be a fantasy football star this year if he comes back healthy and gets put in the same sort of role.I was encouraged by the two-minute drill Mariota ran, even if it did end in a strip sack. My overall impression was that this was the sort of game you expect a good rookie quarterback to have from time to time. There were learning moments and mistakes, but no glaring flaws.
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Thing that held him back: Honestly, this was a pretty ideal game for Carr in a lot of ways.Analysis: I purposefully started with Carr's best throw. I came into this game looking at these numbers and expecting to be more impressed than I was. Instead, I found a quarterback who hit a few nice throws, but also was gifted a ton of yardage by a reeling defense.With Terrell Suggs out, the Ravens had trouble creating a pass rush. Oakland's almost-exclusive use of the shotgun didn't help Baltimore. But even beyond that, a surprising number of Oakland's yards came on coverage busts, penalties, or blown assignments. Here's Michael Crabtree's touchdown from the All-22. Be sure to watch for the falling Ravens defensive back.
What would have been a game-sealing interception to Will Hill was nullified by defensive holding. Carr had a number of really unimpressive throws after the first quarter but was able to build up a high completion percentage feasting underneath. It's bizarre that a quarterback so touted for his arm strength could almost average one underthrown deep ball every 10 pass attempts.This game is a great example of how a quarterback's stat line doesn't necessarily belong to him. Carr played fine, but this was hardly the dominant effort you'd believe it was by the numbers.
Thing that held him back: I guess you can critique the offensive line to an extent, but I didn't think it was a huge factor in this game.Analysis: Allen Robinson + any quarterback that can throw deep balls in his vicinity = a chance at a big play. That's mainly what happened in this one as Robinson victimized the Dolphins three times for big gains. I've given you above the best of the three deep Robinson throws, a back-shoulder ball. Bortles also laid up a ball that Robinson reeled down in double-coverage. Finally, Robinson was wide open after a safety bit on a double move for his second touchdown.Other than that, this wasn't much different than any other Bortles game of the past two seasons. His ball placement was silly and the completion percentage was only as high as it was because of some amazing catches. He threw a near pick-six at the end of the first half that hit a Dolphins defender right in the chest. He also improvised late in the down a lot in this particular game, which led to things like running Robinson and rookie running back T.J. Yeldon into each other:
I'm still not comfortable with Bortles as a starting quarterback on a down-to-down basis. You can certainly see why the Jaguars keep rolling him out there. You can stack his ten best plays of the season up against any quarterback in the league.But as much as I'd like to believe this game was a massive improvement for Bortles, I think it's more just a few circumstantial deep balls.
Thing that held him back: Poor offensive line play, drops.Analysis: It's odd to say that a quarterback who only threw the ball 19 times made it look easy. But outside of a missed post in the end zone that he took a sack on, Bridgewater appeared like he was in control of this game from the beginning. This, despite seven or eight different dropbacks where he was under pressure. He handled it much better than he did against San Francisco.The Vikings came up short on a couple of third-down conversions when their receivers couldn't fully split the bit. Charles Johnson bobbled a pass that hit him right in the hands and had to dive backwards for it. Mike Wallace fell short of the sticks on a play that was challenged.It's worth noting that a lot of Bridgewater's yardage came on a fluke pass to Adrian Peterson under pressure. The Lions had overpurused to the point where Peterson got the edge and about 50 yards after it. Still, this was a really nice game, and a textbook example of what a coach really wants when he claims he's looking for a "game manager."
Thing that held him back: Feels like we say this on a lot of them, but here especially: poor offensive line playAnalysis: Jameis Winston's first victory went about how you'd expect it to go. He ripped off three or four absolutely hellacious throws, the kind of throws that got him selected No. 1 overall in the first place. I linked the best of them above, but there were plenty to choose from.I was a little surprised by how much more often the Bucs went to Winston in the shotgun. They're clearly playing away from their line as much as they can after Week 1. Winston, for his part, looked inconsistent reacting to pocket pressure in this game. There were plays like the above, where he stayed focused and re-adjusted. There were also several scrambles of what I'll call "Zombie Jameis," where he lurches forward unsure of himself. He fumbled once on a zombie scramble.This game came with rookie mistakes too, of course. Tangled wires on a few plays — one where it looked like he'd called a play-action to nobody. This was a much better game plan than Week 1, and that shows in Winston's stat line. A good two-minute warning and a lot of (rejuvenated?) Doug Martin can help the Bucs minimize the damage their offensive line can put on Jameis.
Thing you can blame for a poor performance: A very conservative game plan.Analysis: The Browns took the ball out of Manziel's hands as soon as the scoreline hit 14-0. It's often said that you can tell how a coaching staff feels about a player by how they use him. In that case, the Browns are terrified of Manziel. They used a ton of play-action in this game, often at the expense of lower route-tree options.This is the Manziel I expected to see out of Texas A&M. He makes you feel like anything is possible, good or bad, on any given play. I picked that play above because I felt like, even if the receiver dropped the ball, it was insane that Manziel was even able to make a play on it.The flaws are still there. Subpar ball placement. A little quick to scramble at times. A ton of his actual yardage in this game came on improvised plays, including the final touchdown.That said, the biggest issue for now is that he simply has to hold on to the ball when he gets sacked. No NFL head coach is going to deal with a quarterback fumbling twice a game.
Thing you can blame for a poor performance: Jeremiah Poutasi's "blocking," uncharacteristic accuracy problems.Analysis: If this is the worst kind of game you get out of Mariota, Titans fans, it's going to be a good year. The offensive line collapsed on itself after Chance Warmack left, and rookie right tackle Jeremiah Poutasi put Mariota in danger early and often.Mariota's accuracy was a bit troubling in this game, especially when trying to connect on deep sideline balls. It was almost like he was trying to be a little too perfect on them. He did mix in some nice stick throws, a good back-shoulder ball and the touchdown strike to Dorial Green-Beckham, which was awesome. It's not like he was terrible. It just was a game with a few clear flaws; Mariota ran himself into one of the sacks, for instance.The game plan was, well, interesting. Tennessee clearly favored their tight ends — I don't think I've ever seen an offensive blueprint closely designed around Anthony Fasano and Chase Coffman. I imagine Delanie Walker is going to be a fantasy football star this year if he comes back healthy and gets put in the same sort of role.I was encouraged by the two-minute drill Mariota ran, even if it did end in a strip sack. My overall impression was that this was the sort of game you expect a good rookie quarterback to have from time to time. There were learning moments and mistakes, but no glaring flaws.
