Re-Tooled Raptors Are Difficult to Handicap

The 21st season in Raptors franchise history starts Wednesday, and here's what we know: The Raptors, coming off a franchise-best 49 wins a season ago, enter as the favorites to win the Atlantic Division and—barring a series of catastrophic injuries—will make the playoffs again.

Toronto has also made consecutive first-round exits, which means its lingering in the dreaded middle of the league—a team not in a position to bottom out, but with a roster that doesn't have the upside to compete for a championship. This season, then, will be about finding a definitive answer to whether that upside exists. It feels like the final chance for this core group to show there's something more than just a competitive regular-season team, and for a head coach to take a revamped roster and address the defensive shortcomings that became its downfall in the playoffs last year. If the group doesn't deliver, well, next July will be fascinating for a Raptors team that's already undergone a makeover this summer.

The answer to the how-far-can-this-group-go question will not necessarily come in the form of actual wins and losses, or even a playoff series win. It will be about individual player development and Casey's ability to make all the new pieces fit. It's a critical year for general manager Masai Ujiri's evaluation of this team. Despite the bitter ending of last season that ended in a sweep at the hands of the Washington Wizards, the Raptors faced little adversity during the year. Toronto played its best basketball to start the season and, with the help of a home-heavy schedule, raced out to a 13-2 start by late November that essentially clinched the division.

There might not be as much breathing room to start this season—12 of Toronto's first 17 games are on the road, including visits to Oklahoma City, Miami, Golden State, Utah and Los Angeles to face the Clippers before the end of November. The Raptors don't play two consecutive games at home until the start of December. And with playoff seeding based on record regardless of division winners, being atop the Atlantic means even less this year.

Still, there's reason to believe that the Raptors could win 50 games and advance to the second round of the playoffs.

For starters, DeMarre Carroll gives the team an elite perimeter defender. His continued emphasis during training camp and preseason on both effort on the defensive end and ball movement on offence could turn this Toronto team into a more balanced squad. Secondly, Jonas Valanciunas—signed to a long-term extension this summer—might finally be ready to shoulder a bigger load on offence, and if the additional touches don't negatively impact his efficient scoring in the low post, it creates another dimension to the team's offence, especially in late-game situations. Then there's Terrence Ross, who after back-to-back disappointing postseason efforts, may find more stability now that he's in a bench role. Further, the trio of Patrick Patterson, Bismack Biyombo and Luis Scola will each contribute in their own ways, while Cory Joseph appears to be a better option as a backup guard than what the team had last season.

The contrarian might look at this team, though, and say that Carroll will get lost in the mix in an isolation-heavy offence. That the slow-footed Valanciunas will once again fail to earn the trust of Casey that's needed to make an impact on both ends, and Ross will continue to regress even in a lesser role. Or that the power forward vacuum opened up by the departure of Amir Johnson will be a hole too glaring to fix with the current players on the roster, and the bench additions will not make a significant impact to the team's standing in the East.

The Raptors are a difficult team to handicap heading into the season, but, same as ever, they'll go as far as Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan can carry them. This is the season that will determine the long-term future in Toronto for that backcourt.

Lowry—the new, skinnier version—dominated the preseason and seems determined to erase the bad memories of last year's playoffs. DeRozan has a player option for next year, and it makes financial sense for him to opt out and survey a market that will likely have suitors willing to offer a 26-year-old All-Star shooting guard a max deal. Even with the additional cap space available to all teams next summer, does Ujiri want to make that commitment to DeRozan? After two seasons here, Ujiri finally put his stamp on the roster this summer. He has already made decisions to retain Lowry and Valanciunas—DeRozan and the status of Casey will be the next two dominoes to fall. There are now expectations that the re-tooling will result in an improvement in the standings. In that way, the evaluation of Ujiri's tenure in Toronto begins this season.

Toronto has climbed out of mediocrity after five consecutive seasons out of the playoffs. But being on the precipice of contending does not mean the logical next step will happen, nor is year-to-year improvement guaranteed, illustrated by last season's playoff exit. The Raptors rebranded with new jersey designs this summer, the city will host All-Star weekend in February and the We The North movement remains strong. There are exciting things happening to this franchise.

The Raptors might have their most successful season yet. But if they fall short and this team finds itself out of the playoffs in the first round, additional changes will come, and we'll remember this core group as the team that couldn't ascend to greater heights, even if it made watching basketball in Toronto worthwhile again.