Friday Film Room: Buck Allen

For fantasy football, Week 17 is tough. Which teams will rest players? We don't know! Which teams are ready to fold up and go home, and will put up minimal resistance? We don't know! And what player can I produce a Friday Film Room on which could help you make a key decision for your Week 17 lineup? We don't know!

Actually, thanks to input from my Twitter following, I landed on Baltimore Ravens running back Javorious "Buck" Allen. He's a pretty smart candidate, actually: Allen has been annoyingly up-and-down in the five games since starter Justin Forsett broke his arm. He had 170 yards from scrimmage Week 13 against Miami, but didn't top 20 yards rushing in either Week 14 or 15—he was benched for fumbling early in Week 15 against the Chiefs—and then last week Allen produced 112 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. So by reviewing Allen's game film, I can help folks decide whether to flex him in Week 17, and I can give some insight about whether Allen deserves a major role in 2016.

Let me say off the top that Allen is one of the strangest NFL running backs I've evaluated this year. Intellectually, I know that he's 6' and 221 pounds, but he doesn't look that big, and often doesn't run that big. He came out of USC this spring with a reputation for being an elusive, hard cutter, but that doesn't show up on film that often. He's been productive at times but I couldn't find many plays where it was obvious that his talent was the reason a positive result occurred. By no means would I say he's a bust, and in fact I think he has above-average vision and, when he chooses to employ it, power. But as recently as this past week against Pittsburgh, I saw this:

This is a nice job getting through a hole and accelerating for some positive yardage, but when Allen gets to the second level, he meets Steelers safety Robert Golden. What's the plan here, Buck? I guess he's waiting for Golden to make the first move? This either needs to be a hard cut to try and escape Golden, or plow into the guy and make him think twice about standing still when tackling. Instead, Allen is indecisive and winds up just kind of folding. Here's a similar moment from Week 13 against the Dolphins:

I guess at the end of this catch, Allen kind of tries to hit Miami corner Brent Grimes, but not really. I think an elite back puts his right foot in the ground here and springs to the left, around Grimes and upfield. Allen doesn't do that, and he also doesn't take the opportunity to slam into a defender he outweighs by 35 pounds.

This isn't always the case. Here are a couple runs where Allen is more physical in close quarters. In the first, he escapes defensive tackle Robert Thomas's grasp to create positive yardage where he might've been stopped for a loss:

And here's one Week 12 against the Browns where he's clearly more decisive and powerful, and drags tacklers:

Earlier I mentioned Allen's vision, and I saw multiple times last week against the Steelers where he snaked his way through a collapsing offensive line and found a little bit of daylight. That wasn't necessarily the result of "cutting on a dime" a la LeSean McCoy, but rather seeing a play unfold quicker than many backs do. Here's another play from Week 12 where I think Allen's ability to process visual information is terrific:

Here Allen drifts to his right waiting for his blocking to materialize. He patiently lets his offensive linemen slide past him, and sees beyond his blockers that Browns linebacker Craig Robertson (#53) is following the play's flow and plans on meeting Allen at the outside hole. So Allen cuts back to the inside hole and accelerates, and makes a big play.

And here's my favorite run of Allen's all season, Week 11 against the Rams, where he makes a good cutback, shows fine acceleration, and punishes the eventual tackler:

Unfortunately, Allen doesn't run like this on every play. My impression is that he remembers his college days, when it was much easier to stutter-step and fake a defender out of his jock and leave the impression that he was some kind of major cut-and-juke artist. In my opinion, that part of his game hasn't translated well to the NFL. His isn't a dominant talent, and to be a fantasy star, he'll need a good offense around him. In my book, that's not a huge insult, and in fact it applies to about 90% of all NFL running backs. I think he'll be a better player in 2016 if he begins to manifest his power more, and tries to become a punisher on every single carry. Because he's not Justin Forsett, he's not the dancer who can make tacklers look foolish, but he's got a more varied game than Forsett's. Heck, he's just as reliable a receiver as Forsett is, and in a much bigger body.

As for Week 17 against the Bengals? Unfortunately for Allen, Cincinnati still has playoff seeding to play for: they can still claim a first-round bye with a victory and a Broncos loss (and Denver plays a late game, so the Bengals will go hard). But in games where he hasn't been benched, Allen has averaged 21.4 touches since Forsett's injury, which is a workload fantasy owners will have a hard time getting away from. In my Week 17 running back ranks, Allen is #19 in standard scoring and #16 in PPR. I don't like the matchup and fear Allen isn't the kind of home-run hitter who can make his week even when he's stuffed most of the afternoon, but with only Terrance West behind him on the depth chart, Allen figures to enjoy enough work to be in your lineup for championship week.

Christopher Harris (@HarrisFootball) is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. He hosts the Harris Football Podcast every weekday. Find it on iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn and most other podcast apps, as well as at www.HarrisFootball.com.