The Devils Are Basically an AHL Team without MVP Contender Cory Schneider

Sometimes in the world of sports writing, sports writers write about sports with the idea that the story will run a few days in the future and not immediately. That time is usually used to research and interview in an effort to strengthen the story or the argument being presented. That's the sign of a smart, thoughtful journalist who wants to give the reader the best possible product.

Other times, during those days between the idea and the publication, the story goes completely to hell and the argument being put forth is ruined. That makes the journalist an idiot for waiting so long to submit the story. This is one of those stories (sort of).

Perhaps the argument, "Cory Schneider needs to be considered for the Hart Trophy" wasn't ruined but in a span of five minutes Tuesday night, it was weakened to the point where italics and explanations were required at certain points. Please enjoy this story with explanatory commentary where applicable.

Before we establish Schneider's case for the 2016 Hart Trophy, we must agree upon the foundation on which the argument will be built.

It's a pretty clear one—the 2015-16 New Jersey Devils are a very bad hockey team and Schneider is single-handedly carrying them. If the season ended today, a Devils team lacking high-end talent at every position would be in the playoffs.

Lee Stempniak leads the Devils in points; Kyle Palmieri leads the team in goals; David Schlemko is the club's highest-scoring defenceman with 17 points—the sixth most on the team regardless of position. The sixth-best forward in terms of points is Joseph Blandisi with 12; Devils forwards ranked between 7th and 12th in scoring have combined for 21 goals and 52 points in 280 games; Bobby Farnham is sixth on the team in goals with seven, and all of those numbers lead to the obvious conclusion that the Devils are dead last in scoring at 2.21 goals per game.

Hang on, there's more.

Jacob Josefson (113:15), Jordin Tootoo (77:19) and Sergey Kalinin (75:27) have been or are currently regulars on the team's power-play units and have 12 total goals; Patrik Elias, the team's third-leading scorer a season ago, has been limited to 13 games; Tuomo Ruutu has zero points in 15 games while carrying a $3.8 million cap hit, the third highest among forwards; the Devils are 26th in score-adjusted Fenwick, and went 21 games—more than a quarter of the season—without winning two games in a row.

The Devils are not good.

(Hi, Dave here. That's a strong foundation for a Schneider Hart argument, right? That's a really bad team in playoff position right now. See those two big chunks of text that show how poor an offensive team the Devils are? That was written over the weekend and required very little updating or none at all. The Devils were last in scoring when I first wrote it and were last in scoring at the end of play Tuesday. Things are great so far.)

Yet here they are with 24 games remaining with a realistic chance at qualifying for the postseason because Schneider is carrying this roster—seemingly designed with one purpose, to tank for Auston Matthews—like no goaltender has ever carried a roster.

(Again, nothing has changed. Two games will have been played since the original writing of "26 games remaining" and that time will be used to ask coach John Hynes and maybe Adam Henrique about Schneider's value to the Devils this season. Sure, they will be biased answers, but they will very likely emphasize my thesis that Schneider, at the very least, should be among the Hart finalists. Feeling good.)

Among goaltenders to make at least 30 starts, Schneider is first in save percentage (.931) and goals-against average (1.98) but is just sixth in the one category that may prevent him from getting any sort of recognition in Hart or Vezina discussion—wins.

(Here is where my nightmare begins to become a reality. See that above paragraph? At one point, it was true. That was before Tuesday's game against the Flyers, which was 2-2 with less than eight minutes to play. Schneider allowed one even-strength goal and one power-play goal, so as long as he allowed no more than one more goal, those numbers won't take too big of a hit. Plus, Detroit's Petr Mrazek, who led Schneider in all those categories, was destroyed by Boston on Sunday, thus giving Schneider breathing room for a sub-par game against the Flyers. I'm feeling pretty good.)

Because of the aforementioned goal-scoring woes, Schneider has only 25 wins. But if you're basing goaltender value on victories, maybe you shouldn't be voting for NHL awards, anyway.

(You're probably aware of the fact the Flyers beat the Devils on Tuesday, so he still has 25 wins. But wins weren't part of my argument so one loss isn't going to matter.)

In even-strength save percentage, Schneider (.943) leads Mrazek (.942) and has faced 234 more shots than his Red Wings counterpart.

(OK, so let's just get to the part where the Flyers shred what was originally a strong case for Schneider to win MVP. Wayne Simmonds makes it 3-2. Fifty seconds later, Nick Cousins makes it 4-2. Then Jakub Voracek gets loose for a fifth goal.)

In less than five minutes, Schneider allowed more than four goals in a game for the first time all season and the Devils went from 20-0-4 when scoring first in a game to 20-1-4. Schneider went from 1.98/.931, both the best marks in the league, to 2.04/.928, which drops him behind Mrazek in both categories and Corey Crawford in save percentage. Because two of the Flyers' goals were on power plays, Schneider only dropped to .941 in even-strength save percentage, but still, he's now behind Mrazek again. This is how quickly an MVP argument can be undercut.

I stand by the next two paragraphs, and the Devils getting killed in the final eight minutes against a bad Flyers team only makes them truer.

If you go position by position, is there a single spot the Devils are stronger than the Red Wings? Would you take the Red Wings' third defenceman or seventh forward over what the Devils have to offer in that position?

That's what makes what Schneider is doing so amazing. There is no comparable in sports history. The closest thing would be when Amanda Whurlitzer carried the Bad News Bears to a Little League championship game, but even that team made the mid-season signing of Kelly Leak and Amanda's arm gave out at season's end after pitching every other game. Schneider may not get more than two days off the rest of the season and the Devils aren't adding Steven Stamkos to the roster before the deadline.

(Schneider went from Amanda Whurlitzer to Engelberg real quick. But he certainly was Amanda-level good before Tuesday night.)

When Carey Price won the Hart last year, it was because he posted ridiculous numbers on a bad possession team during a season when Jamie Benn led the league with 87 points. Patrick Kane seems like a sure bet to crack 100 points this season, which is a fly in the Schneider MVP ointment, but take a look at how Price and Schneider's numbers compare:

Schneider

Wins: 25 (6th)

GAA: 1.98 (1st)

Sv%: .931 (1st)

evSv%: .942 (1st)

Team SAF: 46.5 (26th)

Team GPG: 2.19 (30th)

Points: 94 (on pace)

(Of course, those were his numbers before Tuesday. Tell me you're not convinced Schneider has a real shot at winning the Hart Trophy.)

OK, here is what they are now after his five worst minutes all season:

Wins: 25 (6th)

GAA: 2.04 (2nd)

Sv%: .928 (3rd)

evSv%: .941 (2nd)

Team SAF: 46.5 (26th)

Team GPG: 2.21 (30th)

Points: 92 (on pace)

(Those are still really good but I really wish I filed this Tuesday morning when they were on par with 2014-15 Price.)

Price

Wins: 44 (1st)

GAA: 1.96 (1st)

Sv%: .933 (1st)

evSv%: .942 (1st)

Team SAF: 48.9 (21st)

Team GPG: 2.61 (20th)

Points: 110

If Schneider wins 18 of the Devils' final 24 games, Kane could finish with 110 points and it would be impossible to impugn his Hart credentials. If he has identical numbers to Price but delivered them on a team whose defenceman comparable to P.K. Subban is Adam Larsson, revoke the voting credentials of any PHWA member who picks someone besides Schneider.

(You could vote for someone other than Schneider as of today and I won't give you side-eye at any PHWA meetings in the future, promise.)

But if reality maintains its current form and Schneider finishes fourth or fifth in wins, voters will be asked to do what baseball's voters did for Felix Hernandez in 2010. He had dominant numbers in every peripheral pitching category but because he was on the crummy Seattle Mariners, his record was a mediocre-looking 13-12. Despite this, voters took the team into account and awarded him the Cy Young that season.

It's not possible that hockey's voters are more archaic thinkers than that of baseball, is it? Don't answer that.

Even if the Devils miss the playoffs by a point, Schneider should still receive consideration for the Hart but the playoffs are an unspoken requirement for the award these days. The dearth of talent on this Devils roster can't be overstated. Hynes, a rookie coach, has made the most of the hand he's been dealt but the numbers show it's not as if his strategy or system has the Devils in the black possession-wise.

Schneider is (was!) authoring one of the best goaltending seasons in NHL history, all things considered. The final quarter of the season should determine if he'll be recognized for it. Look, it was one bad game and it's hard to put any of the five goals squarely on his shoulders.

The point remains that the Devils are mostly an AHL team that can't score and Schneider still has them in a playoff spot as of Wednesday morning. If he gets his numbers back to where they were at 7:05 PM Tuesday instead of the numbers he has as of 7:05 AM Wednesday, he has a case that's even stronger than what Price had last season.

(Would it have been nice to have a quote from Andy Greene in this story? You bet, but asking a guy about his goaltender after a 6-3 loss doesn't work. Believe me. I tried. Would it have been nice to get home from the game Tuesday and go directly to sleep and not add in all this commentary because of three stupid goals in less than five minutes? You bet. But at least you have an idea of how fragile an MVP case can be this season and how bad I am at planning anything for VICE and why my editor hates me.)

Score-adjusted Fenwick numbers via Puck On Net.