Are Modern Quarterbacks Better, or Is Throwing Just Easier?

Today, the Miami Dolphins' Ryan Tannehill is regarded as something of a failed franchise quarterback by his detractors (and as a Sam Bradford starter set by some idiots), but Bill Barnwell had an interesting anecdote in his column last week. Discussing the widespread—and, in his view, overstated—perception that NFL quarterback play is in decline, Barnwell pointed out that Tannehill's completion rate would have been one of the best in the league in 1985. Likewise, his yards per attempt and interception rate would mark him as a top ten quarterback in earlier eras.

And while it may feel like most teams don't have a franchise quarterback right now, the league-wide completion percentage is higher than ever.

NFL QBs completing 63.3% of passes this season, on pace to be the highest league-wide completion percentage in NFL history. Hm.

— Chris Sprow (@SprowESPN)November 1, 2016

(After Week 10 Thursday Night Football, the completion percentage is actually up to 63.4.)

But are the quarterbacks actually that much more talented, or do they have an easier job? A lot has changed since 1985. Back then, Bill Walsh's West Coast offense, which relied on timing routes rather than seeing an open player and throwing the ball, was still brand new. You could be below average at passing and not fall to the bottom of the league barrel. In 1989, the oldest season on Football Outsiders' DVOA scale, being three percent worse than average in DVOA got you 18th place in the NFL. Today, it would get you 26th place. Everybody but Brock Osweiler and Blaine Gabbert can throw the ball at least a little bit.

The stats that today's quarterbacks are racking up are not just a reflection of their own talent but also the culmination of developments in the league over the past decade.

An increased emphasis on illegal contact and defensive pass interference has made receivers more effective.

After the Patriots beat the Colts in the 2003-04 AFC title game, big baby and Colts general manager Bill Polian whined that referees weren't enforcing the written rules on illegal contact to the extent that they should be. So the competition committee re-emphasized the rules. The average number of passing yards per game immediately jumped by more than ten yards the next season. With receivers no longer getting pushed while they were breaking into their routes, things opened up a bit for quarterbacks. And while NFL defenses eventually adjusted to the changes—at least in terms of raw yardage—receivers became more effective, able to get faster and lighter because they didn't have to bull through a defender at the top of the route.

This year, defensive pass interference penalties have gone way up, from 15.05 penalties per week in 2015 to 18.3 per week in 2016. Pretty much any play that can end in a pass interference penalty does. When you combine the advantages passing already had in raw yardage with the increased chance that any play produces a first down, of course quarterbacks are going to look good.

The rise of packaged plays and screen passes has made it easier to complete passes.

Packaged plays, another successful invention from college football, have become more and more of a staple in the NFL, to the point where it's surprising not to see them. The throws that are produced by packaged plays are much easier than the tight-window passes into Cover-2 traffic that defined the 2000s.

Essentially, a packaged play is a concept that can have as few as three and as many as five or six different options for the quarterback, based on reading certain defenders and box counts. If there are five in the box, a packaged play probably becomes a run. If there's one-on-one coverage and a single high safety, a packaged play becomes a quick screen or slant. And if a certain kind of zone can be identified, a quarterback usually has a throw in his arsenal that can beat it.

Another thing that has caught on from college is the screen pass. As recently as 2010, per Football Outsiders' charting data, each team was throwing an average of 16.7 screen passes to wide receivers or tight ends. In 2015, that almost doubled, to 31 screen passes to wide receivers or tight ends. For some teams, like this year's Packers without Eddie Lacy, screen passes almost become an extension of their running game.

Which leads us to the next point…

More college concepts make it easier to start young quarterbacks and get decent results.

Carson Wentz hasn't been able to keep up his hot start to the season, but the Eagles were able to get some great offense out of him early on, even without any real receivers of note, because they were able to block and run a short offense that he could handle. Dak Prescott's success in Dallas has come not only because of the Cowboys' offensive line and running game—strengths that Prescott has been able to compound with his own legs in the red zone—but because packaged plays have defined his reads and made them a lot easier.

It really says it all that the Cleveland Browns' Cody Kessler, a third-round pick in this year's draft, is completing 66.8 percent of his passes in what is at best a slightly above average offense. Kessler was seen as a passable backup by most draftniks. He's a smart and heady player without a big arm. He was benched mid-Thursday Night Football for missing plays. This is the scouting report of a guy who, in 1993, would complete 54 percent of his passes, usually once prevent defenses kicked in.

But this is the way the NFL has gone: it's not just that quarterbacks are more prepared coming out of college; it's that the rules of the game and the evolution of offensive concepts have sent completion percentages soaring. NFL teams are better at figuring out what kind of throws quarterbacks can make, and designing offenses around those rather than emphasizing weaknesses.

And it's not surprising that people see these kinds of offenses as less exciting. Easy yards are the most boring. Nobody is on the edge of their seat when Davante Adams takes a bubble screen. The excitement comes on the deep post to Julio Jones, and he meets the cornerback at the catch point and takes the ball easily, as if the defender were a child. But much as the walk is the efficient if not thrilling baseball play, the simple short pass is the easiest way for NFL offenses to keep the chains moving even if it won't make the highlight reels.

Every NFL passing innovation in the past 15 years has led toward this point. Cody Kessler completes two-thirds of his passes and is wildly unimpressive in doing so, but he's just doing his job. Teams will take whatever the path of least resistance to the end zone is, and to the win.

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