Valanciunas' Role with Raptors Unlikely to Expand as League Goes Small

Jonas Valanciunas and his inability to garner consistent fourth-quarter minutes has been an ongoing debate throughout his entire career in Toronto. Dwane Casey doesn't trust him to be on the floor defending smaller lineups, especially since his defensive schemes require bigs to be agile and have the ability to cover plenty of ground especially on pick-and-roll coverages, neither of which are strengths that Valanciunas possesses.

The counter argument is that Valanciunas has the ability to punish smaller lineups on the other end of the floor, but the Raptors have been hesitant to explore that possibility as his offensive game is not fully developed. As a result, the starting center finds himself on the bench at the end of most games, as we wonder whether he will ever have the opportunity to be a late-game contributor with this team.

For his part, Casey has not provided anyone with confidence that Valanciunas' role will expand with this team in his fourth season in the league. Last month, the Raptors head coach was asked about playing his starting center against smaller lineups. His response: "I would love to be stubborn and just try to have Valanciunas guard a smaller, quicker centre when a team goes small, but it's difficult to do now in this stage of his career. Maybe someday he'll get there, but he's not there yet. The day of the centres has gone by."

In a recent interview with NBA.com's John Schuhmann, Casey elaborated on his approach with how the league is evolving. "The league is going to their more skilled guys towards the end of games," Casey said. "Trends come and go, but right now, we have to participate in that trend." He also pointed out that the signing of DeMarre Carroll allows the Raptors to play smaller lineups with him at the four, and specifically named Patrick Patterson and Luis Scola as potential fives in those lineups.

The question of how Valanciunas fits into the team's future will require an answer soon. The Raptors have until late October to sign their starting center to an extension. To date, there are no indications that the two sides have held discussions about a potential long-term contract, although Masai Ujiri and the front office are notoriously tight-lipped and don't often succumb to the media leaks which dominate basketball offseason. If the team opts to let Valanciunas play out the final year of his rookie contract, he will become a restricted free agent next summer, free to entertain offer sheets from potential suitors.

Casey is not wrong in pointing out the team's newfound flexibility in using smaller lineups, or the league-wide trend of doing so. This philosophical shift does not mean the basic skills required of a traditional center— rebounding, rim protection, ability to finish at the basket—are obsolete. During this offseason, Robin Lopez signed a four-year, $54 million deal with the Knicks, while the Pelicans handed Omer Asik a five-year, $60 million contract to remain in New Orleans alongside Anthony Davis. There is still a market for big men, and if Valanciunas does hit free agency next summer just as the salary cap soars, it would be reasonable to expect his contract to match those aforementioned numbers, if not more.

For that price, the Raptors don't need Valanciunas to be a superstar. If he continues to progress, adds a perimeter game—which he is working on this summer—that is more than just a series of pump fakes and is more consistent on the defensive end, Valanciunas will be a valuable long-term asset. Although the Raptors have added Scola and Bismack Biyombo this summer, two players who have strengths (Scola can score from the perimeter, Biyombo provides rim protection) that Valanciunas currently lacks, he remains the only permanent answer at center for the team.

The Raptors are going to have to find the right combination among Valanciunas, Patterson, Scola and Biyombo. The Valanciunas-Patterson pairing was a liability on defense last season, although that is projected to be the team's starting frontcourt alongside Carroll. There are a few reasons to think the two will improve on defense together. First, Carroll provides an elite-level wing defender to the starting five, and will give relief for other individual defenders. Second, the team's defensive schemes might change—as part of their coaching staff changes, the Raptors hired former Bulls assistant coach Andy Green, who worked with Tom Thibodeau—to play better to Valanciunas' strengths.

On offense, the Raptors will never feature Valanciunas, not under Casey and with this lineup full of perimeter players. The argument for playing Valanciunas in the fourth quarter would be if he becomes enough of a low-post threat that he can command a double team, and punish smaller lineups in that way while creating additional space for the team's shooters. It's unclear that he can make that leap next season or get enough touches to do so. Even with incremental improvement, the roster seems set up to keep Valanciunas' role as it has been in his three seasons in Toronto.

That might be a frustrating thing for the fans, but this is what happens when a player's development doesn't exactly sync up with the team. The Raptors are not a finished product, but they're also built to win and contend in the Eastern Conference now.

There's no room to slow everything else down and emphasize giving Valanciunas additional opportunities over the priorities of winning contests, and that's Casey's rationale for keeping his starting center on the bench at the end of games. Whether that changes or not remains to be seen. If Casey's words in the offseason are to be believed, we're likely headed for more of the same next season. If so, the Raptors just have to know they'll head into next summer with many unanswered questions about Valanciunas as they prepare to make him part of the core moving forward.