The Sydney Swans Have Slumped To The Best-Worst Team In The AFL

There hasn't been much joy or cause for celebration for the Swans so far in 2017. In four weeks we've seen upsets, some left-field results from out-of-form teams and one-third of the games decided by three goals or less. The Swans have been erratic in execution to say the least. With one or two favourable umpiring decisions and improved accuracy for goal and less skill errors they could be 4-0. For a team used to seeing finals action, having qualified for 17 post season campaigns in the last 20 years, their past four weeks has been unsettling to watch.

In Round 1, the Swans lead the Power by 10-points throughout the second term before a wave of disorganization crept into their game, giving up four goals to eight in the second half going down by 28 on home turf. After kicking the first four goals of the match against the reigning premiers in Round 2, the Swans stalled and blew their hot start and produced 60-45 clangers which would prove their downfall in a tight tussle decided in the final 15 minutes, losing by 23. In Round 3, they were dominated by a struggling Pies outfit who had eight scoring shots to two in the first quarter and were winless at that point. Not even a late flurry of scores could stop them losing by 1-point at home. And in Round 4 against the Eagles at Subiaco, they drastically lost the hit out count (58-33) and first use of the ball, and weren't able to generate scoring opportunities freely - inside 50s were 54 to 42 West Coast's way -, which resulted in a 26-point loss.

It's their worst start since 1999 when they went 1-4 after the first five rounds. They've averaged a 3-2 record after five games in the last 10 seasons. And the players know their out-of-kilter start is, for the most part, quite unusual. Swans veteran Heath Grundy told The Age that the time is now to starting digging the team out of a big hole. Josh Kennedy says it's time to work even harder. Coach John Longmire was circumspect but even he found it hard to pinpoint their collective failings.

"There is not an area of our game that we're completely happy with, clearly, as the scoreboard indicates," he said. " Zero and four; it's not a great spot to sit but it is what it is and we need to play better and more consistently."

On paper, the Swans have a good, sometimes quick, usually highly skilled team. Their 0-4 start is the first time since 1993 the Swans have started the season with four consecutive losses. No side with the same record has made the finals since the top-eight system was introduced. In 1999, the Swans went 1-4 to start season, and went on to play finals that year with an 11-11 record. Anything is possible. But writing off the Swans would be foolish knowing what we know about them, their team, their pedigree, their record, their bloods culture. It's still early to discount the Swans from finals action and you're going to have to prove me otherwise because their post-season qualification record is almost unprecedented.

If you've just woken up after being inside a cave and have just looked at the AFL ladder and saw that the Swans are languishing in 16th with a record of 0-4, you could surmise that they've played a month's worth of terrible football. You'd also be thinking their chances of making finals are slim. But the AFL ladder doesn't come with caveats. What the ladder and losses don't show is that the Swans are best-worst team in the competition at the moment. They're not your conventional struggling team or the club that is plunging into a rebuild. Their average losing margin is 19-points. They're ranked second in the league for tackles.

The most crucial point here is that the Swans have a team that is meant to be fabricated toward dependable winning. The resurrected Sam Reid has kicked 11 goals and considered a top 10 forward because of that haul. They have skill and depth on the ball with Jake Llyod who's averaging 30 touches per game and is ranked fifth for effective disposals. And then there's the reliant leader and midfielder Josh Kennedy, averaging 29 disposals and is ranked 2nd in the league for contested wins. They have a slew of first-year players making their presence felt and when Tippet, McVeigh and Rampe return, they'll be close to full strength. Their team is good: they just need more time.

If the Swans can't fix some flaws, tweak some structures, and fix them quick, their good-on-paper team won't be able to shift up in gear.They are ranked 16th for offense and 13th for defense. They'll need to find more avenues to goal because 13 goals a game is not going to win them many games if they are conceding 16 or more goals per game (which the Swans are). Another telling statistic: they are ranked 17th in the league for marks. Coach John Longmire has not been impressed with delivery and perhaps the poor inefficiency has lead to the inability to take a mark, which makes life difficult distributing the ball around the ground. If you're not marking the ball, the dispensing of the football becomes predictable, arboreous and ball use overkill.

While most of the Swans' wayward ways have come directly from players – you only need to read the 60-45 clanger count against the Eagles to know this has been a weekly impediment – there are other delinquent feats thwarting Sydney's momentum during their matches this season. Consider this: they have amassed a losing 47-94 free count. Against Collingwood they had 18-31 free kicks against and 16-23 against Port Adelaide. To analyze each decision would be painful, but the numbers alone show a staggering divide. The most costly umpiring decision was the Callum Mills rushed behind against Picken during the Grand Final rematch where Picken was awarded a free kick as it was deemed Mills wasn't under enough duress to warrant a rushed behind. Picken kicked the goal and it swung momentum. For the Swans to give away 47 free kicks more than receiving them in the first four games it must be said, it has certainly robbed them of any impetus especially when they've been within arms reach of claiming a win.

On the bright side, the Swans haven't played their best football and have almost walked away with four wins. They've missed two elite defenders. Kurt Tippet will return sooner than later which should bolster the forward group, which is currently being served by four – out of six - players boasting 31 games of AFL football. While Papley, Foote, Hayward and Fox have been serviceable, adding Tippet is like adding beams to a house. The imposing trio of Franklin-Tippet-Reid adds versatility, height and contested marking power; a scary combination when they are animated.

At 0-4 it's easy to say the Swans are cooked. But the fact is the Swans are a good football club. They're ridiculously consistent. The next month will determine whether or not they'll contend for a flag and show us all just how great they really are. They take on the dynamic Giants and their quick up and down pinball passing game at the S.C.G. before settling into a string of highly winnable yet danger matches against an upward trending Blues, the 1-3 Lions, the 0-4 Roos and a plucky Saints team on he cusp of the final eight. If the Swans do what they are capable of doing, worst-case scenario, they go 4-1, which would make them 5-5 at the half way mark of the season. That would mean they'd need seven wins from their final 12 to perhaps claim a finals berth. But, we're getting ahead of ourselves.

The Swans should be able to claw their way out of this train wreck start to 2017. It will need to fix some of the things working against them at the moment. It will need the injured back in action. It will need more goals from their midfielders in Sinclair, Parker and Hannebery. And I think the 47-94 free kick count against them should iron itself out throughout the year; what decisions have worked against them now, should work against other teams in later games. This is a good team that hasn't been able to accomplish good things yet, a team that has made a habit out of winning the regular season. The Swans aren't damaged goods and have one of the best midfields and experienced key forward set ups in the league, unlike some other teams that have first-year players in operating key positions as if they're driving a car for the first time. Don't be fooled by their horrific start; playing catch up is what great clubs do best.