What Is Kirk Cousins Worth to Washington?

In a year of massive quarterback improvement across the NFL, the biggest and most unexpected leap forward has been that of Kirk Cousins. Just last year, head coach Jay Gruden deemed Cousins' mistakes so costly—and their author so unreliable—that Cousins hit the bench for journeyman Colt McCoy. There certainly wasn't much optimism about Cousins coming into the season. If Washington fans were harboring hope at quarterback, it was reserved for Robert Griffin III reverting to old form after getting another offseason in which to heal.

That didn't work out, which means the team was left for dead by most at the start of the year. So, naturally, Washington clinched a playoff berth last weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles. Cousins left his stamp on the game, both by making one of the dumbest mistakes in NFL history but also by shredding the reeling Eagles pass defense. Cousins threw for four scores and Philly barely even pressured him.

Even if that game proves to be an aberration, Washington has put together a competent offense around Cousins, and Cousins has done much to improve it. In cementing their spot in the playoffs, Washington has five straight games of 20-plus percent passing DVOA. It's legitimately the best unit on the team, and Cousins leads it.

Washington now faces an interesting dilemma. They have just made the playoffs behind a quarterback without much of a deep arm, and whose collection of skills led scouts to pigeonhole him into a backup role. Is the statistical improvement about Cousins, or is it about the offense and the cast around him? Is the production real, or a product of a bad division and a weak Washington schedule?

The NFC East has the worst out of division record (14-26) since the merger in 1970. Telling.
— D.K. Wilson (@dkwilsonisland) December 28, 2015

This is more than a little unfair, but I do think that Cousins' value is hurt by similar success stories. If you play the Which Stat Line Does Not Belong? game, it's the Cousins of the past five weeks. Weeks 1-9, Cousins had a 1.3 percent DVOA. He then played the worst NFL defense of all-time (New Orleans) and threw four touchdowns. For Weeks 10-15, Cousins' DVOA was behind only three quarterbacks: Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, and Russell Wilson.

I think the easy parallel, when you look at the lack of interceptions compared to career norms and low pedigree, is pretty simple:Kirk Cousins' renaissance is strikingly like that of Nick Foles. Remember Nick Foles? He spearheaded Chip Kelly's offense to a 27-2 TD/INT ratio in 2013, and was second in the NFL in DVOA. This was an out-of-nowhere year compared to his ugly rookie season. It has remained such as Foles has returned to nowhere in Philadelphia and then St. Louis.

Of course, the real issue for Washington is that Cousins is a free agent after the season. This was not the case with Foles. How much has a month changed things for Cousins? Here's a free-agency preview on Cousins in early November:

Cousins got another chance this season and thus far is making the most of it, as he is on pace for around 3,900 yards and has likely proven that he can be considered a reasonable backup/fill-in starter for some team.

That role, however, should be his ceiling. In four years his record as a starter is 5-12 and his play against better defenses this year has been uninspiring, especially on the road. Unless Washington has a great second half to the season there will be nothing that should raise the view on him around the league.

Washington seems to like Cousins, but they have to be careful not to overpay him based on some belief that the head coach believes he can be a star. … This is a nice test run for the Redskins front office because in the past I would be confident they would have done a nice size deal for him and they can change people's opinions by being cautiously optimistic with him.

Predicted Value: 2 Years, $7-$9 million

Foles got a two-year, $24 million deal with the Rams that gave him $13 million guaranteed. This was, mind you, a year after his breakout. He was an average quarterback statistically in 2014, but that was in the Philadelphia offense (and back when it had other good players).

Washington could play this a few ways. The risk-averse move would be to slap the franchise tag on Cousins and see if he's "real." Unfortunately, Washington does have some cap problems in 2016. They can release Griffin before his fifth-year option vests, freeing up $16.1 million on the cap. They can also release or restructure DaShon Goldson and save $8 million on the cap. But the franchise tender last year was $18.81 million for quarterbacks. Washington only projects to be about $5 million under the cap before all those moves fall, so they'd barely have enough to sign their rookie class after franchising Cousins.

A quarterback with the season that Cousins had rarely becomes available for free, but that might be the case here. He'd be a fascinating free-agent litmus test of scouting versus statistics, for sure.

I expect Cousins' market to settle somewhere around Sam Bradford's. The two aren't a perfect statistical match, but if you trade off a little of Bradford's pedigree for Cousins' superior recent resume, I think evaluators will put them in about the same place. That might mean a two-year, $28 million deal—a raise on what Foles got.

If Washington doesn't hustle to get something done or franchise Cousins, this is going to be one of the most interesting free-agent subplots in some time. Quarterbacks who have played this well as full-time starters just don't find their way to the market often. Cousins has that scary combo of "buyer beware" attributes and perceived value that just might make Washington blink.

One thing's for sure: Cousins has definitely played his way into the minds of NFL decision-makers this season. Can he continue to play well where Foles faded? That's the question the playoffs—and the market—will have to answer for us.