Manning-o-Meter measures the prowess of every first- and second-year quarterback on a weekly basis. It is, by nature, a subjective exercise. I will pepper in as many objective observations as I can along the way, but you will probably be mad with my conclusions at some point. DYAR and DVOA are Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted metrics,explained here. The goal is get a better indicator of how these guys are playing and where their teams may be holding them back through play-calling and offensive personnel.
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The quarterbacks on the Manning-o-Meter are, from left-to-right: Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jon Kitna, Andy Dalton, Jake Plummer, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning. The scale is not measuring these quarterbacks against those players as rookies, but rather against a "vintage" performance by those players.Jameis WinstonTraditional Stats: 21-29, 297 yards, two touchdowns, one sack, one fumbleAdvanced Stats: 63.5% passing DVOA, 141 passing DYARGIF of consequence:
Thing that held him back: The offensive line will always be an issue in Tampa this year.Analysis: Jameis Winston rolled out of bed with a casual deep touchdown to Mike Evans, who apparently got well during the bye. The two connected early and often, and outside of one deep ball that went a bit long, they were extremely effective.Winston's fumble came on a scramble where he got knocked from behind out of the pocket. There were a few minor errors. He missed an open Vincent Jackson on a scramble ball. There were some route miscommunications. But his sack was of the coverage variety, and he had another touchdown to Evans wiped out by offensive pass interference on another ridiculously athletic scramble play.I'm running out of superlatives for him. What he's doing this early in his career is incredibly impressive.And yet, Tampa still managed to lose this game somehow? Well, that's the problem with employing the risk-averse Lovie Smith as your head coach. Tampa settled for running out the clock up 24-7 at the end of the first half, gave up an onside kick to Washington, and play-called to take a field goal to go up 30-24. That's a lot of potential points left on the board when your quarterback is throwing as well as Winston was. Ted Cruz thought this game plan was conservative.
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Derek CarrTraditional Stats: 24-31, 289 yards, three touchdowns, one sackAdvanced Stats: 42.5% passing DVOA, 108 passing DYARGIF of consequence:
Thing that held him back: There were some early drops by his receivers, but other than that, this was a nice day for Oakland.Analysis: San Diego apparently doesn't have game film, because they were covering Carr's receivers on empty shotgun sets like they'd never watched an Oakland game this year. Not one but two touchdown throws on screens provide proof of how undisciplined San Diego was. (And also how great Amari Cooper is.)But I don't want to downplay how well Carr played in this game. His touchdown throw to tight end Clive Walford was one of a few back-shoulder or seam balls that were thrown perfectly. Carr was able to gather himself and play well after the Oakland line failed him a few times, which was something I haven't been sure about with him.It's possible to both have a game script that was very easy—which Carr did in this game —and still throw some impressive balls. I still think the better defenses in the NFL will be able to bully Carr and his receivers in the short game that offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave prefers. But if a defense can't play to stop that, Carr is able to give them some long days.
Blake BortlesTraditional Stats: 13-29, 182 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, two sacksAdvanced Stats: 19.2% passing DVOA, 59 passing DYAR
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GIF of consequence:
Thing that held him back: This was the worst game for Jags receivers in a few weeks, and they still helped him on balance. (See the phenomenal catch looping endlessly above.)Analysis: Inside The Writer's Studio(11:08 A.M., I wake up 20 minutes before my alarm. My girlfriend is awake. I grab my tablet, and I stream the Jaguars game. I notice the score involves a lot of Jaguars touchdowns set up by the defense. I turn to her and say "Bortles still has a pick-six in him.")
An oft-repeated NFLism is that coaches will tell you how they feel about a player by how they use him. Jags head coach Gus Bradley called all of 19 Bortles passes in the first game in a long time in which the game script had fallen in his favor. Probably because of throws like the one above.Bortles did eventually win this game for the Jaguars, which is worth remembering. His scramble ball wasn't very good this week up until the first play above. He bounced three or four wide-open throws. He had another couple of throws that could have been intercepted. The Jaguars were bailed out on a third-and-long pass interference call against the Bills when Brian Walters ran a post and Bortles was so late with the throw that the defender had time to run past Walters to try to pick it off.But he did win the game.He won the game with the play that is emerging as his signature. He can lay out a beautiful, perfectly placed back-shoulder ball to Allen Robinson on one play, then throw a ball that looks like it came off high school tape on the next.
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It's wildly entertaining to watch. The results? Well, they've been better than I would have thought. I still don't think I'd give Bortles another season, but he may have enough good tape to convince the Jaguars to let it happen. Of course, the Jaguars may have a new head coach and/or general manager at that point, so this is mostly speculative.
Teddy BridgewaterTraditional Stats: 25-35, 316 yards, two touchdowns, four sacks, two fumblesAdvanced Stats: 9.7% passing DVOA, 48 passing DYARGIF of consequence:
Thing you can blame for a poor performance: This offensive line. This is probably the worst offensive line. In the NFL and, like, in general.Analysis: This was about a 3 first half with a 5 second half. The main issue is that Bridgewater is playing like the anti-Bortles. He's cautious almost to a fault, and I counted three or four separate times where Bridgewater had a post or seam route with a single-high safety and avoided it in favor of taking a checkdown. Those are throws that are slightly dangerous, but which shouldn't really be an issue for a good NFL quarterback.In the second half, he found Stefon Diggs wide open on a busted safety coverage, and that convinced him to hurl a beautiful deep ball. (That's the play you see GIF'ed above.) He also took a seam shot at Jarius Wright, but Wright dropped the well-thrown ball.Other than that, this was a very simple game plan. Bridgewater ate up a lot of raw yardage on busted coverages by the Lions, who seemed to forget that players who don't go off the line right away can still be eligible receivers.
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Seven weeks in, and I'm still waiting for a great game by Bridgewater. You could convince me that offensive coordinator Norv Turner is perhaps making him play cautious. You could convince me that the offensive line woes are so bad that he should play cautiously. It doesn't change the fact that what we saw in the second half of last season hasn't happened yet this year.
Johnny ManzielTraditional Stats: 4-5, 27 yardsAdvanced Stats: 13.5% passing DVOA, 7 passing DYARGIF of consequence:
Analysis: I'm not going to read too much into five attempts and some scrambles, but boy, the Browns have really Browns'ed the fun out of Manziel's game. He had a somewhat open post route against Cover-1 that I'd expect him to shoot for based on his college experience. Nah. He checked it down.The Browns were put in a hole on Manziel's one drive—he came on in relief of an injured Josh McCown—when guard Joel Bitonio held on a three-man rush. (GIF above.) Manziel looked a little scramble-happy, and the offense never seriously threatened to find 20 yards at a time with him on the field. I continue to be unimpressed with this coaching staff.
Zach MettenbergerTraditional Stats: 22-35, 187 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, one sack, one fumbleAdvanced Stats: -71.2% DVOA, -137 DYARGIF of consequence:
Thing that held him back: The receivers did rob him of some big plays. (See above GIF.) The bigger problems grew in the pocket.
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Analysis: Mettenberger's first start of the season exposed the same problems he's always had. He's got a great deep ball, and as a result his highlight reel looks amazing. On a play-by-play basis, he's just not good enough at maneuvering the pocket to be a starting quarterback.Mettenberger's first half got off to a solid start. Drops struck hard to kill a few drives. He was leading a two-minute drill in the red zone, then overthrew tight end Delanie Walker on a blown assignment. Walker sprawled out for the ball, but one in stride would likely have led to a touchdown or first-and-goal at the 2. Instead, Mettenberger dropped back on the next play, had a lineman in his face, and was hit in motion and picked off. Both receivers he could have thrown it to on that side of the field were well covered anyway.The other bugaboo hit him late: Mettenberger doesn't have a good sense of underneath defenders. Trying to hit Kendall Wright on a post that would have put the Titans in field goal position on the final drive of the game, Mettenberger failed to notice an underneath defender. The ball was not thrown with arc, and was picked off.Throughout the second half, Mettenberger looked hurried. He was fine in the first, but the hits he took seemed to get to him.I don't think this was a horrible performance—in fact it was one of Mettenberger's better games that I've watched. But the flaws I saw last year are still visible, and should keep him from being any more than a stopgap solution at quarterback.
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Thing that held him back: The offensive line will always be an issue in Tampa this year.Analysis: Jameis Winston rolled out of bed with a casual deep touchdown to Mike Evans, who apparently got well during the bye. The two connected early and often, and outside of one deep ball that went a bit long, they were extremely effective.Winston's fumble came on a scramble where he got knocked from behind out of the pocket. There were a few minor errors. He missed an open Vincent Jackson on a scramble ball. There were some route miscommunications. But his sack was of the coverage variety, and he had another touchdown to Evans wiped out by offensive pass interference on another ridiculously athletic scramble play.I'm running out of superlatives for him. What he's doing this early in his career is incredibly impressive.And yet, Tampa still managed to lose this game somehow? Well, that's the problem with employing the risk-averse Lovie Smith as your head coach. Tampa settled for running out the clock up 24-7 at the end of the first half, gave up an onside kick to Washington, and play-called to take a field goal to go up 30-24. That's a lot of potential points left on the board when your quarterback is throwing as well as Winston was. Ted Cruz thought this game plan was conservative.
Thing that held him back: There were some early drops by his receivers, but other than that, this was a nice day for Oakland.Analysis: San Diego apparently doesn't have game film, because they were covering Carr's receivers on empty shotgun sets like they'd never watched an Oakland game this year. Not one but two touchdown throws on screens provide proof of how undisciplined San Diego was. (And also how great Amari Cooper is.)But I don't want to downplay how well Carr played in this game. His touchdown throw to tight end Clive Walford was one of a few back-shoulder or seam balls that were thrown perfectly. Carr was able to gather himself and play well after the Oakland line failed him a few times, which was something I haven't been sure about with him.It's possible to both have a game script that was very easy—which Carr did in this game —and still throw some impressive balls. I still think the better defenses in the NFL will be able to bully Carr and his receivers in the short game that offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave prefers. But if a defense can't play to stop that, Carr is able to give them some long days.
Thing that held him back: This was the worst game for Jags receivers in a few weeks, and they still helped him on balance. (See the phenomenal catch looping endlessly above.)Analysis: Inside The Writer's Studio(11:08 A.M., I wake up 20 minutes before my alarm. My girlfriend is awake. I grab my tablet, and I stream the Jaguars game. I notice the score involves a lot of Jaguars touchdowns set up by the defense. I turn to her and say "Bortles still has a pick-six in him.")
An oft-repeated NFLism is that coaches will tell you how they feel about a player by how they use him. Jags head coach Gus Bradley called all of 19 Bortles passes in the first game in a long time in which the game script had fallen in his favor. Probably because of throws like the one above.Bortles did eventually win this game for the Jaguars, which is worth remembering. His scramble ball wasn't very good this week up until the first play above. He bounced three or four wide-open throws. He had another couple of throws that could have been intercepted. The Jaguars were bailed out on a third-and-long pass interference call against the Bills when Brian Walters ran a post and Bortles was so late with the throw that the defender had time to run past Walters to try to pick it off.But he did win the game.He won the game with the play that is emerging as his signature. He can lay out a beautiful, perfectly placed back-shoulder ball to Allen Robinson on one play, then throw a ball that looks like it came off high school tape on the next.It's wildly entertaining to watch. The results? Well, they've been better than I would have thought. I still don't think I'd give Bortles another season, but he may have enough good tape to convince the Jaguars to let it happen. Of course, the Jaguars may have a new head coach and/or general manager at that point, so this is mostly speculative.
Thing you can blame for a poor performance: This offensive line. This is probably the worst offensive line. In the NFL and, like, in general.Analysis: This was about a 3 first half with a 5 second half. The main issue is that Bridgewater is playing like the anti-Bortles. He's cautious almost to a fault, and I counted three or four separate times where Bridgewater had a post or seam route with a single-high safety and avoided it in favor of taking a checkdown. Those are throws that are slightly dangerous, but which shouldn't really be an issue for a good NFL quarterback.In the second half, he found Stefon Diggs wide open on a busted safety coverage, and that convinced him to hurl a beautiful deep ball. (That's the play you see GIF'ed above.) He also took a seam shot at Jarius Wright, but Wright dropped the well-thrown ball.Other than that, this was a very simple game plan. Bridgewater ate up a lot of raw yardage on busted coverages by the Lions, who seemed to forget that players who don't go off the line right away can still be eligible receivers.Seven weeks in, and I'm still waiting for a great game by Bridgewater. You could convince me that offensive coordinator Norv Turner is perhaps making him play cautious. You could convince me that the offensive line woes are so bad that he should play cautiously. It doesn't change the fact that what we saw in the second half of last season hasn't happened yet this year.
Analysis: I'm not going to read too much into five attempts and some scrambles, but boy, the Browns have really Browns'ed the fun out of Manziel's game. He had a somewhat open post route against Cover-1 that I'd expect him to shoot for based on his college experience. Nah. He checked it down.The Browns were put in a hole on Manziel's one drive—he came on in relief of an injured Josh McCown—when guard Joel Bitonio held on a three-man rush. (GIF above.) Manziel looked a little scramble-happy, and the offense never seriously threatened to find 20 yards at a time with him on the field. I continue to be unimpressed with this coaching staff.
Thing that held him back: The receivers did rob him of some big plays. (See above GIF.) The bigger problems grew in the pocket.Analysis: Mettenberger's first start of the season exposed the same problems he's always had. He's got a great deep ball, and as a result his highlight reel looks amazing. On a play-by-play basis, he's just not good enough at maneuvering the pocket to be a starting quarterback.Mettenberger's first half got off to a solid start. Drops struck hard to kill a few drives. He was leading a two-minute drill in the red zone, then overthrew tight end Delanie Walker on a blown assignment. Walker sprawled out for the ball, but one in stride would likely have led to a touchdown or first-and-goal at the 2. Instead, Mettenberger dropped back on the next play, had a lineman in his face, and was hit in motion and picked off. Both receivers he could have thrown it to on that side of the field were well covered anyway.The other bugaboo hit him late: Mettenberger doesn't have a good sense of underneath defenders. Trying to hit Kendall Wright on a post that would have put the Titans in field goal position on the final drive of the game, Mettenberger failed to notice an underneath defender. The ball was not thrown with arc, and was picked off.Throughout the second half, Mettenberger looked hurried. He was fine in the first, but the hits he took seemed to get to him.I don't think this was a horrible performance—in fact it was one of Mettenberger's better games that I've watched. But the flaws I saw last year are still visible, and should keep him from being any more than a stopgap solution at quarterback.
