The Panthers Are Relying Too Much on Roberto Luongo

This article originally appeared on VICE Sports Canada.

The Florida Panthers' 12-game winning streak came to an end Monday night at the hands of the Vancouver Canucks and former cats goalie Jacob Markstrom, and they fell even harder Wednesday, getting shelled 6-0 to the Calgary Flames. At 26-13-5 the Panthers had been riding high, as the streak slingshotted them up the Atlantic Division standings from a middle-of-the-pack squad to first place with 57 points. Expectations were certainly higher in Florida this season, but it's shocking to see the Panthers atop a division which features the Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings at the halfway point of the season.

Panthers general manager Dale Tallon deserves credit for cashing in on the team's recent glutton of high draft picks, which has lifted the club out of mediocrity. He chose Aleksander Barkov second overall in 2013—despite Seth Jones being the consensus No. 2 pick—and then drafted defenceman Aaron Ekblad the following year, obtaining a pair of franchise players. Tallon's also selected impact players like Nick Bjugstad (2010), Jonathan Huberdeau (2011) and Vincent Trocheck (2011), and made some key acquisitions, as well.

Jaromir Jagr, 43, acquired at last season's trade deadline and signed to a one-year extension, leads the Panthers with 32 points in 41 games, while playing the big brother role on a line with Barkov and Huberdeau. The trio have generated positive possession numbers. Tallon also stole Roberto Luongo from the Vancouver Canucks, and the Montreal native is having an excellent year at age 36 with a .937 even-strength save percentage. He also snagged Brian Campbell from the Chicago Blackhawks in a salary dump, and the 36-year-old has become an integral part of the team's shoddy defense.

Offensively, aside from the top-line, contributions have come from expected places. Shootout specialist Jussi Jokinen, who signed a four-year deal with the Panthers in 2014, is fourth in scoring with 25 points. Trocheck is right behind him with 12 goals and 24 points. Reilly Smith, who was acquired with the ghost of Marc Savard for Jimmy Hayes, has 12 goals and 23 points, while Brandon Pirri is also among the 20-point club. The bottom-six forward group has some big holes, though, with Shawn Thornton and Dave Bolland (who inexplicably landed a $27.5 million contract) earning regular playing time (when healthy).

The defence outside of Ekblad and Campbell is a total mess. Willie Mitchell and Erik Gudbranson are one of the most atrocious defence pairings in the league. The duo have both posted Corsi ratings in the low 40s, which is way below the standard 50-percent marker and simply not good enough for a second pairing. Former first-round pick Dmitry Kulikov isn't the player people thought he could be, and Alex Petrovic isn't anything more than an offensively challenged depth defenceman.

It's not a perfect group, but on paper it's a playoff squad.

The Panthers' numbers were unsustainably impressive during the streak. They outscored their opponents 27-10 at even strength over the 12 wins. Even though they kept on winning, the Panthers posted a 47.3 Corsi Fr—the percent of shot attempts taken—which is right on line with their season mark (and bottom five of the league). So if they're getting out possessed, how did the Panthers stay afloat? Puck luck and great goaltending.

The Panthers had everything clicking at once to catapult them up the Eastern Conference standings. During the run, Florida posted a 107.5 PDO, which combines shooting percentage and even-strength save percentage and is a good indicator of luck. Usually the higher the PDO, the harder you crash (ask the 2014-15 Colorado Avalanche), so luck played a huge factor in the streak. On the season, the Panthers are still posting a -2.8 shot differential per 60 minutes at even strength and get frequently out-possessed—something that doesn't scream championship contender.

The two graphs show the team's numbers during the streak compared to the entire season.

Luongo, meanwhile, has provided great play between the pipes all season, but during the streak he posted a .958 even-strength save percentage, a mark only bested by Jonathan Quick (.967 in nine games) and Petr Mrazek (.959 in 10 games) among goalies who played at least 400 minutes during that span. Al Montoya has been a serviceable backup, too, and posted a .966 even-strength save percentage over a small three-game sample. Luongo will finish 2015-16 as a Vezina candidate with great numbers—maybe even get some consideration for the Hart Trophy—but maintaining a .958 even-strength save percentage is impossible and sure to drop.

Still, with a great goaltender in Luongo these issues haven't been devastating. The Panthers are outscoring their opposition +0.35 at even-strength per 60 minutes, largely thanks to the club's 1.8 goals against per 60 minutes at even strength, which is among the NHL's best. It's exactly how the Canadiens survived last year. If Luongo goes down, the team's record is likely to plummet, too, just like Montreal's has without Carey Price in 2015-16. There's no doubt Florida's a growing group that should be a playoff team in 2015-16, but the holes on the roster are too apparent to go all in on the team.

Fans should be elated the Panthers have defied the franchise norm, moving away from perennial bottom feeders to playoff contender. It's been nearly 20 years since Florida made its last Stanley Cup finals appearance, but this year's squad probably won't end the streak. The Panthers' lack of depth and overreliance on Luongo is what's stopping them from making that run.

Graphs via war-on-ice.com.