Division Swing Factors Revisited, AFC

Right before the season, we snuck in this look at the biggest swing factors in each division -- the elements that could change each division race the most. At the halfway point of the season, let's look back at what we thought then. And what we should think now.

AFC East: Ryan Tannehill versus Himself

Pull-quote: "…quarterbacks sometimes take leaps of effectiveness not because of development, but because the supporting cast improves. Tannehill is in an ideal situation to improve."

The result: Outside of an elevated turnover ratio, the Ryan Tannehill we've seen this year is … pretty much directly in line with what we'd expect from Ryan Tannehill. The bigger data set seems to have won here.

Firing head coach Joe Philbin seemed to solve Miami's problems for exactly as long as it took them to face a non-AFC South team. And, at 3-4, with Cameron Wake fixing to hit IR after tearing his Achilles, optimism is in short supply for the Phins. I don't think they're dead and buried just yet, but their schedule is brutal.

The new swing factor: What kind of quarterback play can the Jets get the rest of the way?

The Jets have lost quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to torn ligaments in his non-throwing thumb for an undetermined amount of time. I declared the Jets one of the favorites for the last AFC wild card spot last week on the basis that they have the weakest remaining schedule among contending teams. Replacing Fitzpatrick won't be as hard as it may seem on paper — he was over-performing — but they still need competent quarterback play to secure a spot.

AFC North: Can Other Contenders Pounce on Suspended Steelers?

Pull-quote: "…the Ravens or Bengals could take advantage of a possible slow start due to the suspensions, and build a lead that might be insurmountable. The Steelers were a different team with a healthy Bryant in the lineup last season. The other AFC North contenders need to put as much distance as possible between themselves and Pittsburgh before Bryant comes back after Week 4."

The result: Andy Dalton did the dang thing. Cincinnati's win over Pittsburgh on Sunday basically locks up the division crown for the Bengals — they've got a 3.5-game lead with just nine games left to play. Beating the Steelers again, given tiebreakers, would effectively make it a 5.5-game lead.

The Bengals can win games in a number of ways. They have 20 sacks already this year—as many as they had in the entire 2014 season—and Dalton has so much depth at the skill positions that he can find the best matchup for Cincy on a week-to-week basis.

Please, bubble wrap yourselves right now, Cincy. We need to see how this team can play in the playoffs. The only thing that can get in the way of that is injury attrition. Let Geno Atkins play in the American Gladiators Atlasphere. Pound the ground with Jeremy Hill the rest of the way. You're the most balanced non-Manning, non-Brady contender the AFC has seen since Matt Schaub got hurt. Now you just need to make sure you have all the pieces available to make good on it.

The new swing factor: Can Pittsburgh grind out a playoff berth with only half-a-Voltron?

Just as the band was all back together for Pittsburgh, star back Le'Veon Bell suffered a torn MCL. The Steelers are a cautionary tale at this point for Cincinnati—a team with great talent that just can't stay healthy.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger looked rusty in his return, throwing three interceptions. DeAngelo Williams proved himself an adequate fill-in when the Steelers needed him earlier this season. Now they'll need him to be able to lead a backfield tasked with keeping pressure off Roethlisberger while he gets back into playing shape. I give them a better chance than their 4-4 record indicates.

AFC South: Banking on Quarterback Breakouts

Pull-quote: "The most important thing [Tennessee and Jacksonville] can do this season is establish themselves with a real quarterback. But with a little luck and some good quarterback play, I could see either team passing the Texans and becoming a factor in the wild card race."

The result: Neither Blake Bortles nor Marcus Mariota has established themselves as a quarterback worthy of franchise status yet.

Bortles has improved. The problem is that he hasn't made enough improvements to be a star. He's instead become what Ryan Fitzpatrick would be if he had a deep ball and was (somehow) less accurate. Bortles is capable of amazing things, both good and bad, especially when he puts the ball in the vicinity of breakout wide receiver Allen Robinson.

Mariota, after a hot Week 1 against Tampa, has faded as teams have figured out Tennessee's passing offense. It hasn't helped that Tennessee's o-line is terrible and he has no adequate skill position players to throw to. Mariota has missed the past two games due to an MCL sprain, and Zach Mettenberger's trade value is at Kirk Cousins 2014 levels. It hasn't been a fun few weeks to be a Titans fan.

Jacksonville and Tennessee could have easily passed the Texans had they not bumbled away games against them. Houston is 3-5 despite playing exactly one good defensive game.

The new swing factor: Has Andrew Luck been a living, breathing organism at any time this season?

Jay Glazer's recent report that Luck was playing through fractured ribs shined light on his seemingly never-ending problems this season. The Colts went from hot pick to win the AFC and lead the NFL in points scored to one IV'ed Matt Hasselbeck win from a total rebuild.

On Andrew Luck, there was a shoulder injury but there were injured ribs in addition. Any rib injury is tough on QB bc of rotation

— Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer)November 1, 2015

On paper, this is still Indianapolis' division to lose. Even granting that Luck may have another stinker or two in the tank, the Colts have three division wins in a division where six wins may get the job done.

But this situation is unstable. Even if we look past the loud whispers of coach-general manager discord, this is a bad offense anchored by Frank Gore and, for now, a wildly inaccurate quarterback. Will that change? I'd bet on it. Am I as sure of that now as I was four weeks ago? Nope.

AFC West: The Kubiak Equation

Pull-quote: "I expect the Denver defense to do enough to hold up their end of the bargain. But if Manning and Kubiak have problems co-existing, or Manning finally has hit the wall, it could open the door for the Chargers and Chiefs. The Broncos don't need to be the aerial show they were in 2013. They do need to be able to drop 24 points on a good day."

The result: It took seven weeks, but Denver finally delivered a nice offensive performance in time to send Green Bay to the pile of formerly unbeatens.

The bigger adjustment to our expectations is just how dominant this Denver defense has been. Coming into this week, they were sacking quarterbacks on a patently ridiculous 9.9% percent of dropbacks. This was before they took down Aaron Rodgers three times and held him to 77 passing yards. Yes, the Green Bay passing attack is missing Jordy Nelson. But they aren't missing him that much. I had high expectations for this defense and I feel like they're blowing them out of the water. I cannot wait to see them play the Patriots over Thanksgiving.

Manning and Kubiak are going to need the Broncos' run attack to work. The Broncos can't rely on Manning to be a top tier passer at this point. But they only need Manning to be adequate. What they can't do is ask Manning to convert third-and-long on a regular basis. It may work for a game or two, especially with the right matchups. But teams don't win games decided by less than seven points on a regular basis, and Denver's already 5-0 in those games this year.

The new swing factor: Will regression strike the Oakland offense?

Raiders offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave has done a masterful job with Derek Carr and company with a quick strike offense that regularly spreads the field, much like Carr's college offense at Fresno State, that can find mismatches. The Raiders can get Taiwan Jones on your linebacker outside. They can force you to cover Amari Cooper one-on-one. Marcel Reece is going to catch four balls a game and there's nothing you can do about it.

And Carr is slinging it. There's not a quarterback in the NFL who has boosted his stock like Carr this season. That said, it's still just a half-season. I'm very curious to see how opponents react to the Raiders with more tape available. Denver gave teams a blueprint to stop them. I don't know that any team has the talent that the Broncos have, but I do think this Oakland offense is beatable with solid tackling and execution.

I'm not saying that Carr's performance is a fluke. Sports writers can overcomplicate the NFL by trying to make this scheme-on-scheme. Talent and execution are often the determining factors. But last season many thought Teddy Bridgewater had made the leap after eight games. I'm hesitant to make that call with anyone based on seven games.