Stop Living in the Past: This Raptors Team Is Different

Shortly before the last home game of the Toronto Raptors' regular-season schedule on Tuesday, Dwane Casey shifted from basketball coach to life coach. This is an unavoidable occurrence in the profession: Coaches are asked to expound on too many topics, and the big topics in sports are too metaphorically resonant to everyday existence to not have that unintentional crossover appeal.

Anyway, Casey was asked about his team's mental makeup. Specifically, he was asked whether the Raptors' recent postseason failures would be on their minds when their first-round series against Indiana starts on Saturday.

"Last year was last year. I said that at the beginning of the season, at training camp," Casey said. "Did we forget last year? No. Are you going to dwell on it? All of us have had situations in life where unfortunate things happen. If you dwell on it, it eats you up."

Casey's point: Use failure as motivation, but do not focus on it, lest you jeopardize your well-being (and the whole point of your pursuit). Want to fixate on the Raptors' epic four-game capitulation to Washington last year? Go ahead, but just know that half of the rotation and coaching staff has changed since then. Are you one of those people who likes to dredge up a franchise's postseason history as an indication of what will come up next? Cool. How does it feel to wake up in the morning and know you are objectively wrong about something?

The Raptors might have an all-time playoff record of 14-28, but only the last 11 games (record: 3-8) are of any relevance. Hell, the Spurs, The Model Franchise Of The NBA™, have lost four times in the first round since winning their first title. Each time, they reflected and adapted to disappointment, but did not combust.

It is good to be familiar with history. In the Raptors' case, however, past performance is merely one indication of future outcomes. Here is a brief look back at the Raptors' playoff history, and a look ahead to the series with the Pacers.

First round: Raptors lose to New York 3-0.
The narrative: Young Toronto team learns harsh lesson against veteran New York-area team.
The subplots: Butch Carter hates Marcus Camby; many Raptors players hate Butch Carter; Tracy McGrady hates playing second fiddle.
The lesson: It helps when a team is not distracted by lawsuits.

First round: Raptors beat New York 3-2.
The narrative: With previous year's experience, Raptors learn what it takes to win.
The subplots: Latrell Sprewell is terrifying; Vince Carter is ascending; Alvin Williams is clutch.
The lesson: Winning is a learned behaviour.

Second round: Raptors lose to Philadelphia 4-3.
The narrative: Allen Iverson and Vince Carter are Michael Jordan's successors.
The subplots: Allen Iverson can defer when necessary; Morris Peterson will be a key contributor for years; something about a graduation.
The lesson: The Raptors' rise is inevitable, apparently.

First round: Raptors lose to Detroit 3-2.
The narrative: Raptors battle, come up short without Vince Carter.
The subplots: Chris Childs forgets the score; Antonio Davis cements his Raptors legacy; Hakeem Olajuwon's career ends.
The lesson: The Raptors' rise isn't inevitable, apparently.

First round: Raptors lose to New Jersey 4-2.
The narrative: Young Toronto team learns harsh lesson against veteran New York-area team.
The subplots: The Nets have red jerseys, too; Vince Carter, ugh; both Raptors point guards play hurt.
The lesson: Success requires a little seasoning.

First round: Raptors lose to Orlando 4-1.
The narrative: Chris Bosh is nice, but the Raptors aren't nearly tough enough to slow down Dwight Howard.
The subplots: Andrea Bargnani, small forward; Jameer Nelson outplays Raptors' two-headed point guard; Bosh needs a lot more help.
The lesson: Bosh needs help, and it might not be on the roster.

First round: Raptors lose to Brooklyn 4-3.
The narrative: Young Toronto team learns harsh lesson against veteran New York-area team.
The subplots: "F--- Brooklyn"; "Horn!" Jurassic Park becomes a thing.
The lesson: The Raptors need bulkier, sturdier perimeter defenders.

First round: Raptors lose to Washington 4-0.
The narrative: One-dimensional Raptors fold, as they were always doomed to do.
The subplots: Kyle Lowry disappears while John Wall shines; where is James Johnson?; "It."
The lesson: Defence is kind of important.

The history is indeed jarring: seven losses in eight series, and no wins in any of their five seven-game series. The past cannot help but stay with you.

It just is not necessarily prescient, or meaningful. Unless you want to dwell on their league-low assist rate, these Raptors are a team without a major weakness. Looking at the four factors on both ends—turnover percentage, effective field goal percentage, rebounding percentage and free throws attempted per field goal attempt—the Raptors were only below the league average in one category: forcing turnovers. More importantly, they are stingy with the ball, with the eighth-lowest turnover percentage in the league. The Pacers are fantastic in transition, and it could be an equalizer if the Raptors protect the ball like they did two years ago against Brooklyn. That does not seem to be in this team's DNA, though.

The Raptors have a clear size advantage: Jonas Valanciunas shot 72 percent from the floor in the two games he played against the Pacers, and Bismack Biyombo had a 16-point, 25-rebound game against Indiana in March. The Raptors lost the battle in the paint last year, when Marcin Gortat badly outplayed Valanciunas, but the Pacers just do not have that type of presence (although Ian Mahinmi has had a fine season).

With apologies to Paul George, who is excellent, the Raptors have the best player on the floor based on his body of work this season—Kyle Lowry. Unlike in the Carter and Bosh eras, both Lowry and DeRozan can carry the Raptors offence in any given game. Unlike last year's team, they have a legitimate rim protector (Biyombo) a legitimate stopper on the wing (DeMarre Carroll, if he is anywhere near full strength), a reasonably healthy version of Lowry and, perhaps most importantly, experience.

"You have to go through something to get to where you want to go," Casey told reporters on Thursday. "Last year was our something."

Not that this will or should be a cakewalk. In George Hill and George, the Pacers have defenders well suited to give Lowry and DeRozan, respectively, a tough time. The Raptors' defence has had enough bumpy spurts this year that it is easy to imagine George and Monta Ellis exploiting the Raptors on the perimeter, especially if Carroll is not healthy and rookie Norman Powell is shaken by the moment. And if Lowry and DeRozan cannot draw the fouls outside of the paint that they reliably got in the regular season—a giant x-factor—the Raptors are going to have to adapt, and get Valanciunas involved more than they usually do. Given that DeRozan's penchant to drive went from commendable to relentless this year, that is less of a concern than last season.

Over the last few days, both Casey and Masai Ujiri have done their best to lower expectations, saying that the mere act of getting out of the first round was not a referendum on the organization's direction. At once, they are right and wrong. The Raptors' stable of young players and draft picks nearly guarantees that the team's future goes beyond this spring. At the same time, this version of the team—the one with Casey coaching, and Lowry and DeRozan at the centre of things—has been through enough, and done enough this season, that a single series victory is a painfully modest goal. These Raptors are good enough to beat any team but Cleveland in the Eastern Conference, and give LeBron James an honest scare.

You can understand why the Raptors' braintrust is presenting their message in the manner they are doing so, but that does not mean you have to accept what they are saying. This team won 56 games this year. They are very good. Dare to have your heart broken by them.