The Truth (and The Truth) About the AFC South

When it comes to the AFC South, I'm reminded of a bit from The Simpsons in which lawyer-turned-realtor Lionel Hutz admonishes Marge for being a little too honest. "There's the truth (shakes head), and the truth (nods and smiles)," Hutz explains. You say "small," he says "cozy," and so on.

The truth (shakes head) is that the Indianapolis Colts have lost Andrew Luck for an indeterminate amount of time after he was hurt again on Sunday. They appeared to be turning the corner with Luck after beating Denver. Everything was going to be fine and the difficult part of the schedule was mostly over and then this happened.

Looks like this is the hit that injured Andrew Luck. — Pete Damilatis (@PFF_Pete)November 10, 2015

The truth (nods and smiles) is that the Colts still have a game in hand over the rest of a remarkably inept division. Indianapolis has the best track record, even if we just narrow it down to this season. Frank Gore is the best running back in the division, and probably the best skill player not named DeAndre Hopkins. Even after adjusting projected DVOA down, the Colts are still Football Outsiders' favorite to win the division.

But with Luck gone—and with us unsure of his timeline to return—this is no longer a runaway. Then again, it's the AFC South, so it can't really be a runaway. Imagine four sets of moderately tipsy fathers and sons participating in a three-legged race, and you are close. The pair that had actually stayed upright long enough to create a slight lead just fell down again. Someone has to get up and win.

Houston Texans (3-5)
Playoff Chance per FO: 14.5%

The truth (shakes head): It's amazing the Texans already have three wins. They've been one of the worst teams in the league all season, and hadn't beaten anyone handily until Zach Mettenberger handed them a free game. An underachieving run defense paid Vince Wilfork $9 million to be a supporting actor on Hard Knocks. Arian Foster is lost for the season. Jadeveon Clowney's return has not been clean, though he has shown flashes. Rahim Moore became the second Texans free-agent safety in two seasons to become persona non grata by Week 7. This has mostly led to a never-ending hurry-up offense as the Texans attempt to come back while trailing by five scores. Also the Texans have the sixth-hardest schedule in the league the rest of the way. They're going to actually have to beat some good teams.

The truth (smiles and nods): DeAndre Hopkins has blossomed into a star. He's been essentially uncoverable this year despite being the team's lone reliable receiver. In Hopkins and Watt, the Texans have the two best players in the division. Watt has previously proven that he can drag a sorry defense up to average, as he did last season. If Romeo Crennel can get out of Watt's way, and Houston can merely be adequate, they should have the best defense in this division. The key word there being "should."

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6)
Playoff Chance per FO: 22.9%

The truth (shakes head): Blake Bortles has been a malfunctioning JUGS machine all season. Pick-sixes can occur at any moment, and miscommunications with his receivers have been depressingly common. Jacksonville's defense has only taken a minor step forward under third-year head coach Gus Bradley, which is depressing when you see how much Dan Quinn has been able to do with a similar unit in Atlanta in one year. The Jaguars have managed only a middle-of-the-pack adjusted sack rate after finishing second in the NFL in 2014. They can stuff the run, as Chris Ivory learned last week. But the only quarterback they've really held down is EJ Manuel, which is saying a lot.

The truth (nods and smiles): Bortles has also managed to become a big-play threat—he's a boom-bust quarterback that can hit any skinny post you give him. His receivers are so excellent that he doesn't actually need to dominate. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have both enjoyed breakout seasons. If Julius Thomas can get healthy, this is far and away the best skill position group in the division. The running game continues to be problematic, and that keeps the Jaguars from being a team that can lead wire-to-wire with ease. (Although one might blame some of that on their continued use of Toby Gerhart at the goal line.) But they do have the comeback ability that other teams in this division lack. The big trump card: Jacksonville has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL: their remaining opponents have an average DVOA of -11.7%

Tennessee Titans (2-6)
Playoff Chance per FO: 8.2%

The truth (shakes head): Even when Marcus Mariota plays, this offense looks stagnant outside of a few packaged plays. Kendall Wright was lost to an MCL sprain, and his return is unknown. Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter are unfit to be top-three receiving options at this point in their respective careers, and they're currently 1-2 on this team. The offensive line is a disaster. Left tackle Taylor Lewan has pressed and may be playing through injuries again. Right tackle Jeremiah Poutasi has been replaced in multiple games. The team's backs are the epitome of replacement level since Bishop Sankey has failed to do anything but fumble kickoffs this year. And, oh yeah, their effort against Houston was so bad that they fired their head coach six starts into Mariota's career. Other than that, Ms. Lincoln, the play has been great.

The truth (nods and smiles): Tennessee has the best defense in the division—defensive mastermind Dick LeBeau's overhaul on that side of the ball has mostly worked. (Though it should be pointed out that they banked a lot of that positive value during Jameis Winston's awful debut.) Mariota's injury has dragged down their overall offensive numbers, and Dorial Green-Beckham is the kind of superlative wideout talent that could change the course of the season if they can figure out how to use him. I can imagine a very functional quick-strike offense around Green-Beckham, tight end Delanie Walker, and a healthy Wright. But how soon? Ken Whisenhunt won exactly two more games for the Titans in his career than interim coach Mike Mularkey did on Sunday. How big of a loss can he be? The future could be pointing up for this team if they stay healthy and start figuring out how to utilize their offensive weapons correctly to account for this bad line.

Winning this division doesn't take hard work, or doesn't just take hard work. It takes smart work, work done with discipline and a goal in mind. And that's why, as little as I think of them right now, the Colts are probably still the favorite. They aren't all that talented, and their run defense falls apart every time they play the Patriots. But they're still just a little cut above the rest of this class. And the fact that none of these teams are prepared to capitalize on a massive loss like that of Andrew Luck should be sending more coaches and general managers home with pink slips come January.