Friday Film Room: Christine Michael

Beware making fantasy football lineup decisions based on things hinted by coaches. NFL teams have no incentive to be truthful with the media or their opponents, and so when they leak their supposed plans in advance of a game, you should take those leaks with a healthy dose of skepticism.

After the Dallas Cowboys got crunched by the Patriots in Week 5 and wobbled into their bye week 2-3, the leaks began. Not only would Matt Cassel be the new starting quarterback, but the team would consider a change at running back. The timeline is fascinating. First ESPN's Ed Werder reported:

— Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn)October 14, 2015

The Cowboys were "considering" changes. Fair enough and fairly reasoned, but clearly someone on the team talked to Werder. Next came the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport:

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)October 14, 2015

"We're definitely gonna use him more" isn't exactly a promise of fantasy riches. Michael has two carries in two games. "More" could literally be two carries Sunday against the Giants. Then came the local guys! David Helman, who writes for the team's own site, said:

Gary Brown, asked about C-Mike's comfort level: 'I think he's where he needs to be, and we want to take the reins off him and let him rock.'

— David Helman (@HelmanDC)October 15, 2015

Oh, boy! The RBs coach "wants" to "take the reins off" and "let him rock." Awesome! Let's do this thing! Can Canton be far behind? Then Helman's DallasCowboys.com bro Bryan Broaddus answered a Twitter question with a one-word answer, and we all lost our minds:

True. — Bryan Broaddus (@BryanBroaddus)October 19, 2015

Oh my God! Christine Michael ran with the ones in a Monday practice! Stop the presses! Trade Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman for him! Somebody please get me a towel!

And now we have to consider whether or not to start Christine Michael this weekend. Welcome to the fantasy football echo chamber. Some NFL teams play it so well. Building a frenzy around a move that may or may not actually happen is a cottage industry these days. This is where my term "farts and whistles" comes from. Some fantasy football "experts" spend their time trying to decipher the farts and whistles that come from teams, rather than just watching the tape.

But this is where we are. Christine Michael may or may not be a bigger part of the game plan Sunday. We have no way of knowing. I do think that Joseph Randle's numbers belie his inconsistency on game film: he's made a few big plays and otherwise has been decidedly un-physical and unimpressive. (Numbers that help illustrate this: Randle has scored 43 of his 58 fantasy points on 11 of his 84 offensive touches.) So perhaps there's a chance for the mercurial Michael to bust out. From what I've seen of him on his (limited) tape, I'd say owning him is a viable strategy. Starting him? The workload is completely non-guaranteed. He's risky in the extreme.

But let's see check out some of the film and see why Michael has repeatedly teased us in fantasy, first with the Seattle Seahawks and now in Dallas. It all began in the 2013 preseason. I was in Chicago for an ESPN event, eating dinner with John Clayton (because I am just that cool), and the Seahawks/Packers preseason game was blaring overhead. And we saw this:

I'll admit that Michael didn't really pierce my consciousness when he played at Texas A&M. By the time Seattle took him in the second round of the '13 Draft, I'd done enough homework to know he was a Draft Combine freak: he was a 220-pound guy who ran a 4.54 40 and dominated the broad and high jumps and all the short-area quickness drills. Now, I don't think you'd say this touchdown run against Green Bay illustrates much at the line of scrimmage other than Michael's ability to not fall down in open air. But the speed he shows at the end of the play, cutting to the outside and putting his foot on the gas…that was enough to get my attention.

And then the next preseason game, Michael decided to remove some Oakland Raiders dude's helmet:

There was reason to be interested in Michael. Marshawn Lynch had borne major workloads for multiple seasons, and Robert Turbin wasn't a particularly special backup. If Michael could pass Turbin on the depth chart and be Lynch's handcuff, he'd be phenomenally appealing for fantasy. Unfortunately, that didn't happen in his rookie campaign. He remained the fourth-quarter mop-up guy, well behind Turbin on the depth chart, though he did occasionally tease with his size/speed combo, and while he didn't really show crazy change-of-direction, he did occasionally make an intriguing cut:

No, Michael turned out to be of no fantasy use in his rookie season, but that was all right. We could wait.

Unfortunately, Michael's role never increased in Seattle. And the Seahawks have been such a sharp organization in terms of talent evaluation, it's particularly damning that they traded Michael away after his third preseason. I watched every touch Michael had as a Seahawk, preseason and regular season (don't weep for me: it was only 105 preseason and 53 regular-season touches), and I couldn't find anything he did consistently wrong. I don't think he's a great player, but he has good feet for someone his size and he'll power through a tackle:

I wish I could find something on film that indicates why the Seahawks would give up on Michael, but it's not there. Sure, he fumbled in the team's first preseason game this summer, but he busted a few runs around the edge, too. I've read that Michael kept running into the backs of his offensive linemen—and have said as much on my podcast—but a repeat viewing of the film really doesn't show this. No, whatever went wrong for Michael went wrong for him off the field. And I should make it clear: just because I believe the only thing we can really go by without locker room access is actual on-field performance doesn't mean I think off-field stuff can't be a factor. My contention is simply that we're never going to know the truth, because nobody has incentive to tell us. Seahawks coaches talked to the media about "consistency" and "dependability," which may be code for Doesn't Work Hard or Is A Knucklehead, but it may be code for other stuff, too. We can't know.

So where are we now that Michael is a Cowboy? Despite his elite athleticism, I don't think he's an elite player. He's thick and strong, but he isn't a hard cutter at full speed and is more of a momentum runner, though when he gets daylight he can really scoot. Think of a somewhat faster version of Mark Ingram. But that could be pretty good, especially behind what is still an exceptional Cowboys offensive line. Unfortunately, until Tony Romo returns, defenses aren't going to respect the Dallas passing game and probably won't give any running backs much room. Given that Michael's supposed ascendance to a starting job is pretty much a rumor at this point, it's hard to feel confident starting him in Week 7.

But some fantasy teams won't have a choice. Four strong sets of skill players are on bye this week (Packers, Bengals, Bears, Broncos). If you find yourself in need of some upside, and are not worried about the possibility of getting nothing from a guy, Michael might be your ticket as a risky flex. I don't know why he flamed out in Seattle, and maybe whatever doomed him there will also stand in his way in Big D. But on the field, he's still a relatively strong prospect, and if things break right, by the end of the year he really could be a hot fantasy commodity.

Christopher Harris (@HarrisFootball) is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. He hosts the Harris Football Podcast every weekday. Find it on iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn and most other podcast apps, as well as at www.HarrisFootball.com.