​Friday Film Room: Calvin Johnson

The numbers definitely don't look good for Megatron.

Long considered a fantasy beast as long as he stayed healthy, Calvin Johnson has had a rough first five weeks. He has only one touchdown, his longest play all year is 28 yards, and he's only averaging 64.4 receiving yards per game. He sits tied for 39th in wide receiver fantasy points per game. These are disastrous results for a guy who, on average, was selected in the second round of drafts this summer.

But numbers can lie in the NFL. The narrative we can tell ourselves is that years of leg injuries have sapped Megatron of his speed, and he's no longer separating from defensive backs. Heck, just look at his average depth of target: in 2014, Johnson was targeted 14.9 yards down the field; this season that number is only 9.5. It's easy to construct a story that tells us Calvin Johnson is fading. Here's a play:

Megatron lines up in the right slot, and runs a fly pattern straight down the field. Cardinals defensive back Jerraud Powers is playing several yards off him; Arizona is in Cover-3 with a single safety high, and in fact that safety bites on Eric Ebron's in route, leaving Megatron one-on-one against Powers. I think in our mental picture of Calvin Johnson, we subscribe to the theory that "if he's even, he's leavin'." In other words, if he's got a full head of steam and gets level with a defensive back, he'll likely kick in an extra gear and fly past that DB in a stride or two. As you can see here, Johnson never quite reaches Powers, and Powers is able to go stride for stride. Watching a play like this puts a bit of doubt into our minds. Maybe Megatron really is slowing down.

Except guess what: that play was from Lions-Cardinals last season, back when we were all convinced that Johnson still had his impossible 4.35 wheels at 6'5" and 237 pounds. I watched every target Johnson received in 2014 and honestly, I didn't see him outrun anybody with any kind of frequency. But here's an example from 2012:

It's not a completion, but against a Cover-2 Packers defense—nominally a more difficult alignment for a receiver to get open against—Johnson lines up as the outermost WR in a trips formation, fakes one step to the post, and then just explodes down the field. Sure, the Packer safety bites, but by the time the ball is in the air, the safety is on the dead run, and Megatron is still pulling away from him.

It's my contention, then, that Johnson started slowing down last year, when he racked up 164 yards opening night against the Giants, when he reeled off four 100-yard games in a seven-week span late in the year, and when he scored twice to single-handedly keep the Lions alive in their winner-take-all Week 17 matchup against Green Bay.

What I saw from Johnson last year, and what I see so far this year, is a very big man, at the age of 30, who still moves well for his size, and who makes up for his lack of elite speed by cagily using body position. At his best, he's a box-out artist:

You wouldn't exactly call this 2014 Week 10 touchdown a result of separation; Johnson simply takes advantage of a defense that played a single safety high, who then made a bad read:

Johnson is able to block out his defensive back with no fear of another defender attacking him from the front side. Touchdown. Oh, and I hope we're not going to deride current-day Johnson's athleticism and ball skills, especially when he did this in Week 3:

With an afternoon of film study, I've convinced myself that Johnson is healthy and basically the same guy he was last year, when he scored 11.5 fantasy points per game. Of course, it would be dumb to say the results have been the same, considering Megatron is averaging 6.6 fantasy points a game so far in 2015. So what's wrong, and is it fixable? Should Johnson be considered a buy-low target heading into a winnable matchup this weekend against the Bears?

That "average depth of target" stat I quoted earlier is borne out when you watch the Lions' 2015 game film. Johnson isn't running as many deep routes; in Week 2 against the Vikings, he never even ran a route beyond 20 yards. He also has only five targets so far this season where the ball traveled more than 20 yards in the air; last season (in 13 games) that number was 28. I don't think this is a matter of Johnson not being open—because he's so big, he's open even when he's covered—but rather a few forces conspiring.

Detroit's run blocking has been awful, and its running backs are stuck in neutral. The Lions are last in the league with 49 rushing yards per game, and defenses have stuffed this running game without loading the box. Detroit has faced six men in the box on 40 of their total 87 rushing attempts, and have averaged 3.3 yards per carry on those attempts. In other words, nobody fears this Lions running game, so there are defensive backs galore clogging deeper routes. Also, Matthew Stafford has gone cold, with six TD passes and eight INTs so far this season and some head-clutching decisions. Finally, while it shouldn't serve as an excuse, the Lions' schedule has been rough: at Denver, Seattle, and Arizona the past three weeks, they've faced three of the best pass defenses (and overall defenses) in the NFL.

So here's where I come down on Megatron: I'm buying. I'm not paying full price, mind you. I'm not giving up a ton of value for him in a fantasy trade. But if I can spare a running back and can get Johnson for someone like Doug Martin? Sold. A lot has ailed Detroit's offense, and I can't promise all will be wine and roses now that the schedule clears up a bit. But on tape I don't see a regression from Johnson, at least not a regression from last year. Separating from DB's may no longer be his leading skill, but he doesn't need to separate to be a fantasy superstar. He owns the same skills he's displayed in the recent past—so does Stafford, for that matter—and my bet is that he'll come around.

Christopher Harris (@HarrisFootball) is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. He hosts the Harris Football Podcast every weekday. Find it on iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn and most other podcast apps, as well as at www.HarrisFootball.com.