The Rap Up: Watching the Potential End of the DeRozan-Casey Era

(Editor's note: Catch The Rap Up at VICE Sports on Monday, where Alex Wong covers off all things Raptors. You can check previous installments here, and follow him on Twitter.)

The Raptors managed to salvage their five-game road trip with back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Clippers at the Staples Center this weekend. They're 9-6 on the season, with nine of 15 games in December coming at home after starting off the campaign with a road-heavy schedule. Friday's win over the Lakers proved costly, though, as Jonas Valanciunas fractured the fourth metacarpal in his left hand, an injury that will keep him out for six weeks. Last week, we looked at the importance of the Raptors center and now the team will be without him for nearly a quarter of the season. The absence of Valanciunas will force Dwane Casey to be more creative with his lineups. On Sunday, the team started Bismack Biyombo in place of Valanciunas, but it's the five-man units in the fourth quarter that will garner more attention (expect a lot of Cory Joseph-Kyle Lowry-DeMar DeRozan combinations) which brings us to another glaring problem with the team's offence—DeRozan.

The swingman is averaging 20.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists. He's attempting a career-high 9.3 free throws per game and converting 82.7 percent of those attempts. Those are impressive peripheral numbers, but as we've learned, understanding the full story with DeRozan and the team's approach on offence requires a closer examination of how scoring opportunities are generated in the fourth quarter.

DeRozan ranks fourth in the league in isolation possessions, and is shooting 15-for-40 (37.5 percent) on those plays. In the fourth quarter, DeRozan leads the team with 65 field goal attempts (Cory Joseph is second with 41) and is shooting 43.1 percent from the field. The isolation possessions are more manageable because DeRozan is getting to the line—where he is 40-for-46 in the fourth alone, and second overall in the league behind James Harden in free throw attempts—and because he's improved with his playmaking (averaging a career high in assists this season). But the numbers that are hard to ignore: of the 65 attempts from the field in the fourth quarter, 40 of them have been jump shots (which he's shooting 25 percent on) and 25 have been mid-range jumpers, and he's shooting 28 percent on those.

In close games down the stretch, the Raptors are essentially handing the ball off to their primary scoring option and rolling the dice. More often than not it results in a (way) less than 50-50 proposition from mid-range. Per NBA.com, the Raptors have a -2.6 net rating in the fourth quarter with DeRozan on the floor this season. None of these numbers would feel particularly discouraging if it was not a continuing trend now with Casey in his fifth season coaching the Raptors and DeRozan playing in his seventh. The Raptors—even without Valanciunas—have other capable scorers who should provide more balance to the offence. DeRozan is an important part of what this team does, but it is also up to the head coach to find a more optimal approach to maximizing possessions down the stretch, something that this team hasn't been doing for several years now. So the question is: will this trend ever change? The Raptors are running out of time to find out.

DeRozan has a player option next summer which he'll surely decline in order to become an unrestricted free agent. As well, the team has an option on Casey for the 2016-17 season. Decisions on both may not be made in concert, but there are some definite overlaps for the team to consider. Barring a drastic change in the makeup of this team's offence, regardless of what the playoff results are this season—meaning: getting out of the first round—Masai Ujiri will have a three-year sample of Casey with a playoff-contending roster upon which to evaluate whether a new head coach is needed. Ujiri will have an even larger sample size to decide on whether to commit over $20 million per season to DeRozan, and essentially betting on the current core of this roster.

If we assume Ujiri does indeed make that bet with this group, can he do it with the same head coach, or will someone who is more willing and capable of being flexible with the offence be needed to take this team to the next level? Even if the Raptors decide on a coaching change, would they also want to shake up the roster, and use their resources elsewhere instead of committing to DeRozan for the money and length of term that he will command on the open market with a raising salary cap? As the evidence piles up, it's becoming increasingly harder to envision a scenario where both Casey and DeRozan will return, or perhaps better put: it's hard to envision both returning without feeling as though the ceiling on this team will have been capped.

In all fairness, Casey and DeRozan have contributed a lot to turning this franchise from an afterthought to this We The North era which has the Raptors competing for a playoff spot, the division title (albeit, the Atlantic) and almost approaching the 50-win mark last season. All of these are accomplishments that can't be ignored. But perhaps this might be the year when we draw the conclusion that the partnership of the coach and the team's primary scoring option has run its course, and a change is necessary in order for the Raptors to move onto something better.

A few other thoughts…

• Some more DeRozan stats: He's on pace to shoot less than 43 percent from the field for the fourth time in five seasons. After setting career highs in 3-pointers made (64) and percentage from long range (30.5) during the 2013-14 season, he's made just 29 shots from the beyond the arc in 75 games since.

• Joseph, who already had an expanded role as the team's backup point guard in addition to playing minutes alongside Lowry in the fourth quarter, will be relied on even further with Valanciunas' injury. The four-year, $30 million contract he received this offseason might have raised a few eyebrows, but Joseph's been terrific so far, and is a plus-54 in 371 minutes on the floor this season. Joseph leads the team in fourth-quarter minutes, and has a +4.6 net rating in the fourth this season.

• Luis Scola had 20 points and eight rebounds in Sunday's win over the Clippers. Don't count on the 35-year-old to provide this type of effort every night, but he's another player to keep an eye on as the team tries to collectively replace Valanciunas' production. Related: Scola hit his 11th 3-pointer of the season Sunday—already a career high—which places him fourth on the team and just six behind Patrick Patterson.

• Amazing news last week: Dan Shulman will be calling upwards of 30 Blue Jays games during the 2016 and 2017 seasons. Can we work on getting John Saunders back to call a few Raptors games? Maybe on throwback Friday? On the New VR even?

• It's Drake Night 3 on Wednesday when the Raptors host the Cavaliers! Like most trilogies, I'm not very excited for the third installment. Bring on the memes, anyway. See you next week.