Jonathan Drouin Trade Was a Good Hockey Deal for Both Montreal and Tampa

The blockbuster trade season has started with the expansion draft just days away. Once again, like last offseason, it was the Montreal Canadiens making a major splash.

Montreal struck the first big post-Cup trade with its divisional rival Tampa Bay Lightning, acquiring the young and talented Jonathan Drouin and a 2018 conditional sixth-round draft pick from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for Mikhail Sergachev and a conditional second-round pick in 2018.

Somehow the Canadiens convinced the Lightning to make the condition on the draft picks that if Sergachev plays 40 or more games in the regular season or playoffs combined next season, there are no picks exchanged in the deal, making it a one-for-one trade. Montreal then wasted no time locking Drouin up to a six-year deal, worth a reported $33 million.

The Canadiens clearly got the more established player here, with the 22-year-old Drouin having a breakout season in 2016-17 for 53 points in 73 games. Adding Drouin gives the Canadiens a legitimate first-line left winger to play behind underappreciated yet star forward Max Pacioretty.

The Lightning, meanwhile, get some cap relief as Drouin would have been up for a new contract as a restricted free agent, and also are able to protect an extra player in the expansion draft, as Sergachev is exempt having played only four games at the NHL level.

Beyond the immediate returns, the Lightning have been searching for a long time on ways to upgrade their defence, as they've looked very slow and porous behind the pairing of Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman. Sergachev, if he hits on his upside, provides that. While he's not a guaranteed NHL stud, his progression as a prospect has been solid.

Sergachev won defenceman of the year in the Ontario Hockey League as a rookie, and was nominated again this past season. He improved his on-ice goal differential relative to his teammates by 14.37 percent in his draft+1 year, and he was a much more effective player in terms of shot differentials as tracked by Mitch Brown of Eyes on the Prize.

On the surface, both teams are getting what they need here, but we'll focus a little more on the Canadiens' side since we have more data to work with, and the impact of this deal will highly depend on what the Habs do or don't do for the rest of the summer.

The big risk here for the Canadiens is if they believe that acquiring Drouin allows them to move Alex Galchenyuk for defensive help. While they could use a top-end defenceman on the left side to eat some of Andrei Markov's minutes, it's not nearly as pressing as their offensive needs.

If the Canadiens don't believe in Galchenyuk as a centre and move him to acquire a legitimate offensive centre it could work out fine for the club, but it's probably not a deal Montreal needs to make. Galchenyuk's results at centre have actually been quite strong, and adding Drouin gives him a potential winger who can complement his elite release off the rush and the cycle. What's more, if the Canadiens do move on from Galchenyuk, Drouin doesn't replace all of what he brings.

Both players have had minimal impacts on on-ice goal and shot attempt differentials so far in their careers, both hovering between 0.5 to 1 percent better than their teammates, but they create offence in different ways. Looking at the last two seasons, we can break down how different the players are.

While Galchenyuk is decent on the powerplay, he's mostly a shooter there, while Drouin produces nearly as many powerplay assists as Galchenyuk does points. Drouin is definitely the superior powerplay producer. At even strength, however, where most of the game is played, Galchenyuk has been much better at creating offence, not just scoring more goals than Drouin while up against tougher defenders, but creating more goals with playmaking as well.

If the Canadiens decide acquiring Drouin gives them the leverage they need to move on from Galchenyuk, the odds are that they're just spinning their wheels here.

What's interesting with these two players is how well they could potentially play off each other, with Drouin's increasingly impressive playmaking matched with Galchenyuk's excellent goal scoring giving Montreal an exciting and explosive one-two punch.

One immediate issue that arises due to this trade is the players the Canadiens can protect at the forward position. Before the trade, the Canadiens were in a pretty easy scenario—protect Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault, Andrew Shaw, Paul Byron, and Charles Hudon at forward, while exposing Tomas Plekanec and Torrey Mitchell. But now, Montreal needs to protect Drouin as well.

So unless Galchenyuk is traded for someone who is exempt from the expansion draft, the Canadiens will need to decide if they'd rather risk exposing someone like Byron who is excellent depth at a good price, or possibly their best remaining prospect in Hudon. It's not an easy choice.

The Canadiens aren't in as tough a bind as some teams, but it's something worth considering, and it may play into who they protect on defense as well, as Nathan Beaulieu has a good relationship with Las Vegas coach Gerard Gallant, and they may decide they'd rather lose him over Byron or Hudon.