Twenty Bold Predictions for the 2016-17 NBA Season

The NBA is back, and with it are wild predictions from those who pretend they can see into the future. I am one of those people.

Here are 20 things I think, hope, and pray will happen during a season that may go down as one of the most memorable six-month stretches in basketball history. It's a fascinating time for a fascinating league, all the more so if even half these projections actually come true.

Let's begin.

1. Sergio Rodriguez and Joel Embiid will be the new lob city.

Various injuries to Ben Simmons, Nerlens Noel, and Jahlil Okafor have tempered Philadelphia's already-basement-level expectations, but what the 76ers do finally have is competent, slick point-guard play and an offensive threat who's good enough to make opposing scouts earn their salary.

Sergio Rodriguez and a healthy Joel Embiid are two fresh ingredients for a team that has long needed what they bring to the table.

There are several reasons why the Sixers are watchable, and the blooming Rodriguez-Embiid relationship is my favorite one. Embiid will draw eyeballs by himself, but Rodriguez's creative flair and outside touch can make the 22-year-old franchise centerpiece even more entertaining. The days of Okafor and Noel setting their own table are over—the Sixers actually have someone who can float accurate lobs to taller teammates now.

2. Anthony Davis will lead the league in usage percentage.

The prohibitive favorite here is Russell Westbrook. Last season, he used 36.8 percent of Oklahoma City's possessions when Kevin Durant wasn't on the floor. The year before that, he led the league.

But while Westbrook still has Steven Adams, Enes Kanter, and Victor Oladipo on his team, Anthony Davis is surrounded by injury-prone ball-handlers and not a single wing or big who knows how to make good things happen on his own.

Davis's preseason usage percentage was a league-high 40.7 (seven points higher than Westbrook). Despite the 98-minute sample size, this totally sounds sustainable. The Pelicans are the NBA's closest thing to a one-man team, and with no reliable second option on board, Davis will be required to start as many plays as he finishes.

New Orleans won't make the playoffs unless their franchise player has a vintage PER-leading campaign. To do so, he'll need a ton of touches, and the Pelicans have no reason not to give him whatever he wants.

3. The Brooklyn Nets will have the slowest frontcourt in NBA history.

There's technically no way to record this data and stack it beside players/teams from the past, but let's call it a safe assumption. Brook Lopez is slow. Luis Scola is really slow. Justin Hamilton is not fast. Trevor Booker is faster than Justin Hamilton. Anthony Bennett has asthma. Chris McCullough loves "pizza with bacon and chicken."

Go small against this team and the game is basically over. Even though the Nets may adopt an up-tempo of play, a vast majority of their opponents (or, actually, every single one) will look like the Flash.

4. The Memphis Grizzlies will win a playoff series.

We don't need to dive into specifics with this particular prediction, but let's just say that the Grizzlies are built to compete with any team in the conference. Let's be optimistic: If Chandler Parsons can stay healthy enough to become Memphis' first option as a playmaking four, Mike Conley can for the first time in his life spend a decent amount of time off the ball, where he's an effective spot-up shooter. Marc Gasol will run pick-and-rolls and post up with a spread floor, too.

The move to bring Zach Randolph off the bench is a long time coming, and allows Memphis to run their attack through him in spurts—namely, against lesser defenders—while mitigating his weaknesses as a pick-and-roll defender. A win-win!

If Parsons' knee prevents him from staying on the court, erase the previous two paragraphs from your memory.

5. Kyrie Irving will win the scoring title.

It sounds impossible for a point guard to win the scoring title as LeBron James' teammate, but hear me out. No team in the Eastern Conference will push James to exert maximum effort in the regular season. He'll coast by with brilliant passing, unstoppable assaults on the rim, and a level of intelligence and peak athleticism that remains unparalleled.

LeBron won't be a decoy, per se, but on nights Ty Lue makes him sit, or stints where all he's focused on is setting up teammates, Irving will slide in as a human whiplash. Like a 6'3" Kobe, he's never seen a shot he didn't want to marry. Last year's Finals were a coronation; Irving now knows that his score-first mentality was good enough to take down one of the greatest teams in NBA history.

The Cavaliers have wing depth and a plethora of handy big men, but the point-guard position is just Irving and rookie backup Kay Felder. The ball will be in Irving's hands a ton, and when that happens it eventually drops through the rim.

6. Andrew Bogut will make an All-Defensive team.

Athletically speaking, Bogut looked good during the Summer Olympics. He's also in a contract year, and should have at least one more season of elite rim protection in him.

Even though he's roughly three years past his prime, Bogut now plays for the Mavericks, a team known for finding and then squeezing hidden drops of production from their aging players. His brick-wall interior defense (in spurts) will be hard to ignore.

7. Kevin Love will not be traded.

Yes, Kevin Love had the game of his life when the Cleveland Cavaliers' season hung in the balance, but a lot of crazy stuff happened before we got there. Andre Iguodala tweaked his back, Bogut bruised his knee, Draymond Green momentarily lost his mind, and Irving and LeBron James morphed into Greek gods for two straight weeks.

Just because Cleveland won it all, however, doesn't mean Love's defense stopped being a problem (that one stop on Steph Curry notwithstanding), especially against a team that can utilize five incredible three-point shooters at the same time. Channing Frye isn't the rebounder or interior scorer Love is, but his dead-eyed outside shooting allows him to slide in as a serviceable replacement. Swapping Love for a two-way wing who can better match up against the Warriors is probably the smart thing to do, but moving a contract that large is easier said than done.

8. The Celtics will have a top-three defense and a top-ten offense when Al Horford is on the floor.

We're not exactly out on a limb here: Boston had a top-five defense and top-15 offense last season, and then they added a four-time All-Star who excels on both sides of the ball and is known to make life easier for everyone he plays with.

In 84 preseason minutes, the Celtics outscored opponents by 38.4 points per 100 possessions when Al Horford was on the court. That number will obviously regress to the mean come regular season, but it foreshadows a seamless transition for a really good player as he tries to fit in with a new team.

9. Derrick Favors will (finally) be an All-Star.

Favors is undoubtedly the best power forward in the NBA to never make an All-Star team. That changes this year, when someone from the upstart Jazz has to make it (and Gordon Hayward's broken finger hurts his chances).

10. Bradley Beal will be traded.

I like Washington and think they can finish as high as third in the Eastern Conference, but if things go bad (like they did last year), it would be great to see something wild go down—something like dealing one of the best 23-year-olds in the league.

It sounds rash, but it sort of makes sense. The Wizards are a good but not great team that doesn't have any cap space to spend this summer, preventing a clear path to improvement. So if the current core can't win a playoff series and there's no money to bring in a free agent, why not shop the most attractive asset they have and see who's available?

Given John Wall's timeline, there's no reason to deal Beal for equal or lesser talent (and that includes future draft picks). But what if they package him with their 2018 first-round pick to the Sacramento Kings for DeMarcus Cousins and Ben McLemore? Washington is already loaded at the center position, but that wouldn't be enough reason to ignore this fantastic opportunity.

With a real coach, an All-Star point guard who doubles as a close friend and former teammate, and a bit more outside shooting than he's had in Sacramento over the past few years, Cousins will be even more dominant, and that could dramatically vault Washington in a conference that's one LeBron James injury away from being wide open.

Meanwhile, the Kings get a brand new franchise player under contract for the next five years. Everybody wins!

11. Karl-Anthony Towns will be an All-Star starter.

Please watch what Towns did to poor Marc Gasol (the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year) last week:

Who in their right mind wouldn't vote this dude in?

12. Eric Gordon will win Most Improved Player.

Seven years ago, Gordon was on the road to superstardom. He could shoot, attack, and finish efficiently, the prototype of an offensive-minded two guard. A string of injuries set him back, along with the anonymity that comes with playing for some seriously bad teams.

This season, however, Houston promises to be an invigorating experience. Gordon will have wide-open threes, the green light to attack in transition before retreating defenses are set, and very little pressure to do too much alongside a dynamic force like James Harden.

Since being traded to the Hornets in 2012, Gordon has missed more than half his team's games, so there's a clear health-related caveat to this prediction. But even though he averaged a respectable 15.2 points per game last season, and made 44.8 percent of his threes the previous year, a healthy Gordon could look like the Gordon of old in Mike D'Antoni's offense.

And that's damn good.

13. Marcus Smart will win Sixth Man of the Year.

He was drafted as Rajon Rondo's successor back in 2014, but the Celtics' deadline deal for Isaiah Thomas that following February forever altered the beginning of Smart's career. He's probably not Boston's point guard of the future, and will instead spend his third season coming off the bench for a pseudo championship contender.

Smart is already one of the better defenders in the entire league, with a nightmarish combination of intuition, strength, and aggression. His outside shot is still a massive work in progress, but there have been signs of improvement in other areas of his game throughout the preseason, particularly as a pick-and-roll playmaker.

The Celtics are in a solid position to take the East, and their win total will keep them in the spotlight throughout the year. Smart, coming off the bench in a role he's seemingly too talented for, will make an award-winning leap.

14. The Los Angeles Lakers' best lineup will feature Luol Deng at the four.

The Lakers are finally on the right track! Byron Scott and Kobe Bryant are gone forever and in their place will be sensible on-court decisions and off-court accountability. D'Angelo Russell looks like a thin James Harden, too. So that's nice.

Player development remains the priority over winning (the Lakers forfeit their first-round pick this year and in 2019 if it falls below No. 3), but it'd still be cool to see Luke Walton tinker with lineup combinations that make the Lakers look like a real NBA team. Julius Randle is ostensibly L.A.'s power forward of the future, but that's where Luol Deng—who signed a four-year, $72 million contract in July—thrived with Miami towards the end of last year. Play the vet where he's most comfortable and the three other members of L.A.'s youth movement will all benefit.

A unit with Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram, Deng, and Timofey Mozgov would feature four players who can grab and go, four three-point shooters, and a diving big who protects the rim. The group isn't perfect, but it untethers Russell, Clarkson, and Ingram from a high-usage space eater like Randle, allowing more offensive freedom for everyone.

Defense won't be the prettiest thing, but Deng can hold his own against most power forwards, and, well, who cares? For the fourth season in a row, a loss is actually a win for this once-proud franchise.

15. The Orlando Magic will have a positive point differential with Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka, and Bismack Biyombo.

It takes a sizable leap of faith to believe that starting Aaron Gordon at small forward is a good idea, but the more I think about it, the better this could be. Under Frank Vogel, an architect of several elite defenses, the Magic will swarm teams with three science-lab athletes who can switch every screen, block shots, and rebound.

Ibaka is a career 35.5 percent three-point shooter who's knocked down 45.5 percent of his attempts in a Magic jersey. He may also score some in face-up situations now that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook aren't hoarding every possession for themselves.

Biyombo will live above the rim as a rolling big, the perpetual threat to throw down lob after lob until defenders pinch a step too far in and leave Orlando's shooters (like Evan Fournier and Mario Hezonja) alone on the weak side.

And Gordon is the mystery box who may leap into a different stratosphere this year. Add it all up and this crazy team just might make sense.

16. Zach LaVine will average more than 20 points per game.

The world now knows Zach LaVine isn't a backup point guard. He spent the first few months of last season chained to that role, unable to look for his own shot without feeling at least a little bit of guilt. After the All-Star break, when Sam Mitchell finally played LaVine beside Ricky Rubio, the 21-year-old averaged 16.4 points per game with an impressive True Shooting percentage of 59.5.

LaVine can shake free for his own shot whenever he wants, and he knows how to finish at the rim. While defenses worry about Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, LaVine should have his fair share of opportunities to attack off the dribble. Above-the-rim Jamal Crawford sounds like a party.

17. Draymond Green will be only Warrior to crack the top 20 in total minutes.

Now that Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, and Klay Thompson are on the same team, the Warriors have even more range than Mahershala Ali.

Steve Kerr can stagger minutes to ensure an elite scorer is on the court at all times, but Green is the one guy whose skill set isn't found elsewhere on Golden State. The Warriors will need him to anchor a refurbished Death Lineup and make plays to keep defenses honest when "only" one of either Curry, Durant, or Thompson is on the floor.

18. The Toronto Raptors will trade for a starting power forward.

Jared Sullinger's foot surgery (and general unreliability) leaves Toronto particularly thin up front. With Biyombo now down in Orlando, the Raptors have only rookies and bench players to slide in as a replacement.

Toronto can go small with DeMarre Carroll at the four, but the likelier promotion is for Patrick Patterson, which still hurts the bench and is like sticking a Band-Aid over a stab wound. This team needs a long-term solution, and even a healthy Sullinger was never that.

There are plenty of "obvious to semi-realistic" trade candidates worth discussing: Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, Nerlens Noel, LaMarcus Aldridge, Enes Kanter, Kevin Love, Greg Monroe, Jahlil Okafor, Serge Ibaka (if the Magic implode), etc.

Some of these guys are a terrible fit beside Jonas Valanciunas. Others are unreachable given what the Raptors can offer in a trade. But it shouldn't be a total surprise if the Raptors swing some sort of deal to shore up their most blatant weakness. Kyle Lowry's contract year means the clock is ticking.

19. James Harden will lead the league in assists and made free throws.

Oscar Robertson did this three times. Nate Archibald did it once. Harden has his work cut out for him, but lead ball-handlers on Mike D'Antoni–coached teams typically have plenty of opportunities to make things happen.

With an abundance of space provided by capable outside shooters, the Rockets will run a ton of high pick-and-roll. Houston will be impossible to stop when Clint Capela dives through the paint after Harden uses his screen to accelerate toward the basket.

Harden finished the preseason averaging 10.7 assists per game—2.9 more than runner-up Chris Paul. Those games don't actually matter, but Harden came into this season as one of the better passers in basketball. With knockdown shooters like Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, and Ryan Anderson running beside him (and with Dwight Howard no longer taking up space on the block), there's no reason to think he won't keep everybody involved while defenses try and slow him down.

As for free throws, nobody's sniffing Harden. He's led the league two years in a row and should only be harder to stop on a team that will set the pace in every game they play.

20. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (a.k.a. Imitation-Crab-Meat Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) will make the Nets an interesting team.

Just kidding. Never watch the Nets.

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