​Week 5 NFL Game Previews: What Is Andy Dalton Made Of?

Game of the Week: Seattle at Cincinnati, FOX 1 ET

Andy Dalton has all his weapons back. Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert are healthy. The Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard backfield tandem has been terrific. The offensive line is dominating opponents. It leads to some criticism for people like me, who had already put Dalton in the failure basket and moved on. But Dalton currently has the second-highest DYAR of all quarterbacks in the NFL, behind only Tom Brady.

I am not ready to backtrack on my belief that Dalton is average. Three of Cincinnati's four games have come against bottom-nine DVOA defenses. I may reconsider if we see him make some big plays against the vaunted Seattle secondary. The Seahawks should be beatable for the Bengals at home. Seattle's offensive line is in shambles. Marshawn Lynch probably won't play. This offense's best play, right now, is a Russell Wilson scramble drill, preferably while Jimmy Graham isn't blocking for some reason that only offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell can explain.

But are we really trusting Andy Dalton to conquer the Seattle defense? I'm not ready yet.

Pick: Seattle 17, Cincinnati 13

Fantasy Football Addict Game of the Week: Dallas at New England, CBS 4:25 ET

There's been a lot of kerfluffle about Greg Hardy's return this week because he's a dangerous misogynist dinosaur, and rightly so. We should call out these things when we see them. On the field, of course, Hardy has been a difference-maker. That's why he's still employed. That's why he and Adrian Peterson have jobs, and why Ray Rice doesn't.

The Cowboys get to play the Patriots off a bye. The Pats have somehow become scarier than they were last season. Instead of just replacing Shane Vereen, Dion Lewis has been an upgrade. This game would have been a "first to 40"-style duel had Dallas brought Dez Bryant and Tony Romo to the party. Instead, Brandon Weeden is on tap. Bringing Weeden into the points-fest game script is like bringing Bud Light to a party sponsored by Beer Advocate.

And so, for one week, America can take comfort in knowing that Greg Hardy is about to get a tiny bit of on-field comeuppance.

Pick: New England 30, Dallas 13

Football Nerd Game of the Week: Buffalo at Tennessee, CBS 1 ET

Sure, Seattle vs. Cincinnati is probably the best game this week. But this one matches a pair of teams on the cusp of being real playoff contenders. You'll get to find out if Tennessee's pass defense (somehow second in pass defense DVOA right now) will crash back to Earth against Tyrod Taylor. You'll get a long look at Marcus Mariota, who has been extremely efficient despite a bad offensive line.

You'll also get to see what the Buffalo Bills' pass rush, first in reputation and 26th in Adjusted Sack Rate, will do to said bad offensive line.

This game is chock full of units and players that are over-performing or underperforming when measured against expectations. Seeing how it plays out will be fascinating. It could also put one of these teams—both currently with a playoff chance higher than 30 percent--in the postseason driver's seat.

Pick: Buffalo 21, Tennessee 19

Game Between Preseason Disappointments: New Orleans at Philadelphia, FOX 1 ET

You could create interesting narratives for both of these teams based on their off-seasons. Chip Kelly finally molded the Philadelphia Eagles in his image by acquiring DeMarco Murray and Sam Bradford. He also neglected the team's offensive line. This has worked out remarkably well for the rest of the NFC East. It only feels like every Bradford pass is a checkdown—he's actually thrown 26 passes listed as "deep" in the play-by-play. He does have a below-average success rate on those passes: a DVOA of 37.8 percent versus an average deep pass DVOA (this year) of 52.8 percent.

Meanwhile, the Saints have the exact same problem: Brees' deep-ball DVOA is just 36.3 percent, and he's thrown even fewer deep passes than Bradford. Of course, the Saints also have no receivers worthy of being a No. 1. Brandin Cooks isn't quite a true threat. New Orleans also is 1-3 in a division with two 4-0 teams, and its rebuilt defense is still struggling.

Philadelphia's defense is already good. That's probably what makes the difference in this game.

Pick: Philadelphia 27, New Orleans 17

Game You'll Only See On Red Zone Or In Local Markets: Tampa Bay against Jacksonville, CBS 1 ET

A battle of young quarterbacks, Jameis Winston and Blake Bortles. You can tell how successful they've been so far by the fact that nobody outside of Florida or the Georgia border will get this game on local television. Winston has actually played pretty well for a rookie, but the crushing crapulence of Tampa's offensive line and secondary receivers have weighed him down.

Jacksonville scored 13 points in an overtime game against Indianapolis in their big opportunity to get a foothold in the AFC South. If JUGS calibrated a machine to be like Bortles, the company would be out of business. In Jacksonville, where the only tradition left is rebuilding, this is not even regarded as a major problem. Yet.

Pick: Jacksonville 23, Tampa Bay 20

Primetime Game That Shouldn't Be: New York Giants at San Francisco, 7:30 ET, NBC

This game narrowly edges out Colts-Texans, only because the Colts at least have injury-related excuses for playing like trash. The San Francisco 49ers brought us this:

— Chris B. Brown (@smartfootball)October 5, 2015

Since then, this team has been unwatchable, and yet somehow they've drawn a primetime spot in three of their first five weeks. It's sad watching Colin Kaepernick attempt to run this offense considering where he was four years ago. The Packers could have rushed two men each down and Kaepernick would still only threaten them with his legs. This is the NFL equivalent of watching the demise of a former famous child actor without Disney to protect them. (In this case, the protection was Jim Harbaugh.)

The Giants have somehow wound up in a division where all their injury issues are small potatoes compared to everyone else's problems. The Cowboys have lost more important players. We've talked about the Eagles. Washington is trying to win every game 17-10 with a quarterback that hands out turnovers like Oprah hands out cars. And the schedule gods have given New York another gift here: a chance to look great and sucker us all into believing this could be their year.

Pick: Giants 23, San Francisco 6